TOTAL VOLUME:
$126.8b
24H VOL:
$122,314,324
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,159,476,470
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,331,186,481
338,503
Markets across
31,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,864
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
40%
VS.
Kalshi:
60%
All articles
Analysis, predictions, and breakdowns from across the markets.
Using Prediction Markets for Journalism: A Reporting Workflow
A field guide for reporters: how to monitor prediction markets as a beat, judge a real move from noise, and vet a number before it goes in a story.
Jared Polites · Sep 14
US Regulated Prediction Markets: Who's In, Who's Not, and Where the Lines Are Blurring
IBKR, Robinhood, Gemini, DraftKings, and FanDuel all built or bought regulated exchanges of their own this year, while federal courts split on whether any of it preempts state law.
Jared Polites · Sep 13
Prediction Market Wash Trading: How to Spot Fake Volume
Wash trading is a trader taking both sides of a contract to fake volume with zero real risk. Here's how it works, why on-chain platforms are more exposed, and the signals that give it away.
Jared Polites · Sep 12
Prediction Market Liquidity Comparison: Why Some Platforms Are Structurally Deeper
Every platform can quote a price. Not all of them can back it once real size hits the book. Here's what actually determines whether liquidity holds, platform by platform.
Jared Polites · Sep 11
How to Read Prediction Market Rules Before You Trust the Price
Two platforms can price the same event five points apart, not because traders disagree, but because the contracts ask slightly different questions. Read the wording before you read the price.
Jared Polites · Sep 10
CPI Prediction Market Contracts: How They're Structured and Priced
CPI, jobs report, and GDP contracts don't price a single outcome. They price a ladder of ranges, and the five platforms differ on how those ranges get built and settled.
Jared Polites · Sep 9
How to Backtest a Prediction Market Strategy (Without Fooling Yourself)
A backtest is only as good as the price data underneath it: survivorship bias, thin liquidity, and too few independent events can each quietly inflate your results.
Jared Polites · Sep 8
Are Prediction Market Winnings Taxable? Yes, Even Without a 1099
Kalshi, Polymarket, Limitless, Predict.Fun, and Opinion all create the same tax obligation on trading gains, and none of them, Kalshi included, sends you a form that covers it.
Jared Polites · Sep 7
Prediction Market Overround: Why the Odds Don't Add Up to 100%
A three-candidate market pricing at 105 cents isn't broken. Here's what that extra 5 cents actually means and why sportsbook vig is a different animal.
Jared Polites · Sep 6
What Is a Prediction Market Whale? How to Spot Large Positions and Read Smart Money Claims
Position size alone proves nothing. Here's how to separate real information from ordinary risk-taking and wash trading, and why some platforms let you check a wallet's history while others don't.
Jared Polites · Sep 4
ECB, BoE, and BoJ Rate Decisions: What Prediction Markets Show
Kalshi and Polymarket price the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan the same way they price the Fed.
Jared Polites · Aug 30
Why an Election Prediction Market Can Stay Open After the News Calls the Race
A contract doesn't pay out when CNN calls it. It pays out when the specific event named in its resolution criteria actually happens, and that gap can run days or weeks past election night.
Jared Polites · Aug 29
Prediction Markets vs Sportsbooks: What Actually Changes When You Trade an Event Contract
Here's exactly what changes when you trade a Kalshi or Polymarket event contract instead of betting a sportsbook line.
Jared Polites · Aug 28
Weather Prediction Markets: How Temperature, Snowfall, and Hurricane Contracts Get Priced
Temperature, snowfall, and hurricane contracts resolve against NOAA and National Weather Service data, not a forecaster's opinion. Here's how the brackets, splits, and pricing actually work.
Jared Polites · Aug 27
How to Spot a Manipulated Prediction Market Before You Trust the Price
Wash trading, thin-book spikes, resolution clustering, and self-dealing are the four patterns that give away a manipulated price. Here's how to check for each one.
Jared Polites · Aug 26
Prediction Markets Regulation Outside the US: A Global Map
The CFTC model is the exception, not the template. More than 30 jurisdictions now restrict access to at least one major platform, and the UK, EU, and Asia each classify event contracts differently.
Jared Polites · Aug 25
Recurring Prediction Market Contracts: How to Read a Chain, Not a Single Bet
A recurring contract is not one market. It's a series that resets every cycle, and reading only the latest instance means missing the trend entirely.
Jared Polites · Aug 24
Best Prediction Markets by Category: Where to Look for Politics, Sports, Crypto, and More
There's no single best prediction market. Kalshi, Polymarket, Limitless, Predict.Fun, and Opinion were each built for a different kind of question.
Jared Polites · Aug 22
Why Prediction Market Odds Disagree Across Platforms (And How to Read the Gap)
A price gap between Polymarket and Kalshi isn't a pricing error. Find out what it really represents.
Jared Polites · Aug 19
How Do Prediction Market Fees Actually Work?
Kalshi, Polymarket, Predict.Fun, and Opinion now all charge takers a fee that peaks on a 50-cent contract and fades toward the extremes.
Jared Polites · Aug 18
How to Use Polymarket in the US (Legal Status, Setup, and a Safer Path)
Polymarket now runs a CFTC-regulated US product through its QCX exchange. Here's how it actually works, who's eligible, and when Kalshi is the better fit instead.
Jared Polites · Aug 14
Are Prediction Markets Legal? The CFTC vs. States (2026)
Prediction markets are legal for contracts structured as CFTC-regulated event contracts but the question is open for sports-outcome contracts according to state gambling law.
Jared Polites · Aug 10
What Does Prediction Market Volume Actually Mean?
Volume is the total traded over time. Open interest is what's still at stake right now. Liquidity is what you can trade this instant, and most headlines quietly blur all three into one number.
Jared Polites · Aug 5
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Is Right for You?
Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and dollar-funded. Polymarket runs on USDC with deeper global liquidity and now has its own regulated US arm too. Compare live.
Jared Polites · Jul 30
Is Kalshi Legit? A Data-Backed Review (2026)
Yes, Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and has been since 2020. Here's what that actually protects, what the fees really cost, what deposits and withdrawals are like, and the state-by-state legal fight.
Jared Polites · Jul 28
How Accurate Are Prediction Markets? What the Resolved-Market Data Shows
Calibration, not who-won, is the real test of prediction market accuracy. Here's what large samples of resolved contracts actually show, and where the record breaks down.
Jared Polites · Jul 26
What Are Prediction Markets? How They Actually Work
Prediction markets price real-world events the way markets price stocks. See how they work, and compare live odds across all 5 major platforms.
Jared Polites · Jul 10
World Cup 2026 Week 1 Recap: What the Markets Got Wrong (and Right)
France overtook Spain, the USA won its group, and Messi tied a record. How five prediction markets repriced after Week 1.
Jared Polites · Jun 20
How Long Does It Take for Prediction Markets to Resolve?
Resolution speed depends on governance, not software. Kalshi confirmed a real Fed decision in eight minutes; Polymarket's identical contract took two hours because its dispute window ran uncontested.
Jared Polites · Aug 5
How to Hedge Using Prediction Markets and Crypto
Options and perpetuals hedge price. Prediction markets hedge the event you are actually afraid of. Here is how to build the cleaner hedge.
Jared Polites · Jun 16
World Cup 2026 Winner Odds: What Prediction Markets Are Saying
France and Spain are the co-favorites, but no team is above 18%. Here's what five prediction markets are currently pricing as the most likely winner — and where they disagree.
Jun 11