TOTAL VOLUME:
$149.2b
24H VOL:
$225,634,708
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,818,747,506
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,877,297,258
449,684
Markets across
33,836
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,677
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
#Politics
Analysis, predictions, and breakdowns from across the markets.
CLARITY Act Odds: What Prediction Markets Say About the Crypto Bill
The CLARITY Act failed a Senate procedural vote 49-50 in September. Here is how to read the CLARITY Act odds on prediction markets, and what could move them next.
Jared Polites · Oct 22
Government Shutdown Odds: How Prediction Markets Price a Shutdown
How to read government shutdown odds before the December 11 funding deadline: what these contracts measure, how platforms differ, and what to check first.
Jared Polites · Oct 18
2026 Midterm Election Odds: What Prediction Markets Are Pricing
How to read 2026 midterm election odds: what House and Senate control contracts measure, why they differ, and how to check a price before you trust it.
Jared Polites · Oct 18
Correlated Prediction Markets: How Related Contracts Constrain Each Other's Prices
A primary contract at 40 cents and a general contract at 45 cents for the same candidate can't both be right. The arithmetic behind correlated contracts on five prediction market platforms.
Jared Polites · Sep 15
Why an Election Prediction Market Can Stay Open After the News Calls the Race
A contract doesn't pay out when CNN calls it. It pays out when the specific event named in its resolution criteria actually happens, and that gap can run days or weeks past election night.
Jared Polites · Aug 29