TOTAL VOLUME:
$152.4b
24H VOL:
$170,491,747
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,927,407,401
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,802,409,459
448,418
Markets across
39,375
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,311
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
Education
Foundational explainers on how prediction markets work and the concepts behind them.
Is Polymarket Gambling? How to Think About It
Is Polymarket gambling? The law, the way the market is built and your own trading habits each give a different answer. Here is how to think about all three.
Jared Polites · Oct 29
Prediction Market Data: Where to Get It, What It Costs and How to Use It
Where to find prediction market data, from platform APIs to the Polymarket leaderboard, what each source costs, and how to use it without being misled.
Jared Polites · Oct 22
Kalshi Betting: Is It Betting, and What Do You Actually Trade?
People call it Kalshi betting, but you trade Yes or No contracts that settle at $1 or $0. Here is what you buy, how it differs from a wager, and why states argue.
Jared Polites · Oct 22
Is Kalshi Legal in Florida? (2026)
Kalshi is available in Florida and the state hasn't sued it, but the Seminole compact and a new DraftKings lawsuit keep the question open.
Jared Polites · Oct 18
Is Kalshi Legal in Washington? (2026 Update)
A Washington judge blocked Kalshi's sports, election, and politics contracts in August 2026. Economics and finance markets stay open. Here's the case and what's next.
Jared Polites · Oct 18
Is Kalshi Legal in New York? (2026)
Kalshi is still available in New York, but the state has beaten it in federal court and is now suing it. Here's the real status, and what could change it.
Jared Polites · Oct 18
Prediction Market Glossary: 100 Terms Explained
Resolution, open interest, spread, DCM, oracle and 95 more terms, defined in plain English so you can read any prediction market with confidence.
Jared Polites · Oct 18
Who Founded Polymarket? The Story and the CEO Behind the Largest Crypto Prediction Market
Shayne Coplan founded Polymarket in 2020 and still runs it as CEO. Here's his story, how the company grew, and who backs it today.
Jared Polites · Oct 17
Is Kalshi Legal in Texas? (2026)
Kalshi is available in Texas and no state or court order blocks it. But lawmakers are studying it, and the federal court fight over sports contracts isn't over.
Jared Polites · Oct 16
How Does Polymarket Make Money? Fees, Yield, and Data Licensing Explained
Polymarket isn't fee-free anymore. Here's exactly what it charges, who pays it, and the other three revenue lines behind the business.
Jared Polites · Oct 16
Who Owns Kalshi? Founders, CEO, and Backers Explained
Kalshi is privately held by cofounders Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara and a group of venture backers. Here's who owns what, and who runs it.
Jared Polites · Oct 14
Can You Buy Kalshi Stock? Is Kalshi Publicly Traded? (2026)
No, Kalshi doesn't have a stock to buy. Here's its real valuation timeline, from $2 billion to a reported $40 billion, and what its CEO has said about an IPO.
Jared Polites · Oct 14
Is Kalshi Legal in California? (2026)
Kalshi hasn't been banned in California, and most of its contracts face no state challenge at all. Here's the actual status, not the simplified version.
Jared Polites · Oct 14
What Is Polymarket and How Does It Work?
Polymarket is the largest crypto-native prediction market, not the largest overall anymore; Kalshi has led raw trading volume since spring 2026. Find out more about Polymarket below.
Jared Polites · Oct 13
What Is Kalshi and How Does It Work?
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange where you trade Yes/No contracts on real-world events, funded by bank, card, wire, or crypto, with fees and pricing that work nothing like a sportsbook's.
Jared Polites · Oct 11
Prediction Market Terms of Service: What to Check Before You Sign Up
Withdrawal conditions, account freezes, dispute resolution, and force majeure outcomes differ sharply across Kalshi, Polymarket, Limitless, Predict.Fun, and Opinion.
Jared Polites · Oct 4
Prediction Markets vs Betting Exchanges: What Actually Separates Them
Betfair matches bettors against each other under a UK gambling license. Kalshi trades CFTC-regulated event contracts.
Jared Polites · Oct 2
How Are Prediction Market Odds Set? The First Price on a New Contract
A new contract's first price isn't a forecast. It's a market maker's opening quote, seeded from a borrowed reference point and however much capital gets risked.
Jared Polites · Oct 2
How to Cite Prediction Market Data in Research (Without Getting the Stats Wrong)
A prediction market price is a timestamped snapshot of belief, not a probability with a confidence interval.
Jared Polites · Sep 28
Prediction Market Futures Contracts: How Long-Dated Odds Actually Move
A contract that resolves in six months doesn't behave like one that resolves tonight. Here's how the calendar, capital lockup, and thin order books shape long-dated odds.
Jared Polites · Sep 27
What Happens When a Prediction Market Event Gets Cancelled
A cancelled or postponed event doesn't reliably mean a refund: Kalshi settles at the last traded price, Polymarket's rare fallback is a 50/50 split.
Jared Polites · Sep 24
Oscars Prediction Market Odds: How Awards-Season Contracts Actually Move
Oscar contracts jump in fixed steps tied to guild wins and nomination day, not gradual drift, because Academy voters overlap directly with the guilds that vote weeks earlier.
Jared Polites · Sep 23
Favorite-Longshot Bias in Prediction Markets: Why Longshots Are Overpriced
Longshot contracts routinely cost more than their real odds justify. Here's the order-book mechanic that inflates them, and how to correct for it.
Jared Polites · Sep 22
Prediction Market Position Limits: Why You Can't Bet Unlimited Size
Kalshi enforces real, CFTC-filed position limits, some as low as $25,000. Polymarket's international platform and its separate US exchange handle size two different ways.
Jared Polites · Sep 20
What Is Limitless Exchange? A Look Inside the On-Chain Prediction Market
Limitless is a non-custodial prediction market on Base where every contract is minted, priced, and settled by smart contract instead of a company's internal ledger.
Jared Polites · Sep 19
What Is Opinion (Opinion.Trade)? Inside the AI-Oracle Prediction Market
Opinion (opinion.trade) is a BNB Chain prediction market that resolves most of its contracts through an AI system called Opinion AI, backed by a token-staked dispute window.
Jared Polites · Sep 18
Prediction Market KYC Requirements: What ID You Need on Each Platform
Kalshi requires full ID verification to fund an account. Polymarket, Limitless, Predict.Fun, and Opinion only need a connected crypto wallet, with Polymarket's own US arm as the one exception.
Jared Polites · Sep 17
Corporate Event Prediction Markets: Earnings, CEOs, and Product Launches
Earnings prints, CEO exits, and product launches all trade as prediction market contracts, but the company sets the clock, not the news cycle.
Jared Polites · Sep 16
Correlated Prediction Markets: How Related Contracts Constrain Each Other's Prices
A primary contract at 40 cents and a general contract at 45 cents for the same candidate can't both be right. The arithmetic behind correlated contracts on five prediction market platforms.
Jared Polites · Sep 15
Using Prediction Markets for Journalism: A Reporting Workflow
A field guide for reporters: how to monitor prediction markets as a beat, judge a real move from noise, and vet a number before it goes in a story.
Jared Polites · Sep 14
US Regulated Prediction Markets: Who's In, Who's Not, and Where the Lines Are Blurring
IBKR, Robinhood, Gemini, DraftKings, and FanDuel all built or bought regulated exchanges of their own this year, while federal courts split on whether any of it preempts state law.
Jared Polites · Sep 13
How to Read Prediction Market Rules Before You Trust the Price
Two platforms can price the same event five points apart, not because traders disagree, but because the contracts ask slightly different questions. Read the wording before you read the price.
Jared Polites · Sep 10
CPI Prediction Market Contracts: How They're Structured and Priced
CPI, jobs report, and GDP contracts don't price a single outcome. They price a ladder of ranges, and the five platforms differ on how those ranges get built and settled.
Jared Polites · Sep 9
Kalshi & Polymarket Taxes: Are Winnings Taxable? Yes, Even Without a 1099
Kalshi, Polymarket, Limitless, Predict.Fun, and Opinion all create the same tax obligation on trading gains, and none of them, Kalshi included, sends you a form that covers it.
Jared Polites · Sep 7
Prediction Market Overround: Why the Odds Don't Add Up to 100%
A three-candidate market pricing at 105 cents isn't broken. Here's what that extra 5 cents actually means and why sportsbook vig is a different animal.
Jared Polites · Sep 6
Why an Election Prediction Market Can Stay Open After the News Calls the Race
A contract doesn't pay out when CNN calls it. It pays out when the specific event named in its resolution criteria actually happens, and that gap can run days or weeks past election night.
Jared Polites · Aug 29
Prediction Markets vs Sportsbooks: What Actually Changes When You Trade an Event Contract
Here's exactly what changes when you trade a Kalshi or Polymarket event contract instead of betting a sportsbook line.
Jared Polites · Aug 27
Weather Prediction Markets: How Temperature, Snowfall, and Hurricane Contracts Get Priced
Temperature, snowfall, and hurricane contracts resolve against NOAA and National Weather Service data, not a forecaster's opinion. Here's how the brackets, splits, and pricing actually work.
Jared Polites · Aug 26
Prediction Markets Regulation Outside the US: A Global Map
The CFTC model is the exception, not the template. More than 30 jurisdictions now restrict access to at least one major platform, and the UK, EU, and Asia each classify event contracts differently.
Jared Polites · Aug 25
Recurring Prediction Market Contracts: How to Read a Chain, Not a Single Bet
A recurring contract is not one market. It's a series that resets every cycle, and reading only the latest instance means missing the trend entirely.
Jared Polites · Aug 24
Why Prediction Market Odds Disagree Across Platforms (And How to Read the Gap)
A price gap between Polymarket and Kalshi isn't a pricing error. Find out what it really represents.
Jared Polites · Aug 19
How to Use Polymarket in the US (Legal Status, Setup, and a Safer Path)
Polymarket now runs a CFTC-regulated US product through its QCX exchange. Here's how it actually works, who's eligible, and when Kalshi is the better fit instead.
Jared Polites · Aug 14
Are Prediction Markets Legal? The CFTC vs. States (2026)
Prediction markets are legal for contracts structured as CFTC-regulated event contracts but the question is open for sports-outcome contracts according to state gambling law.
Jared Polites · Aug 9
What Does Prediction Market Volume Actually Mean?
Volume is the total traded over time. Open interest is what's still at stake right now. Liquidity is what you can trade this instant, and most headlines quietly blur all three into one number.
Jared Polites · Aug 5
How Accurate Are Prediction Markets? What the Resolved-Market Data Shows
Calibration, not who-won, is the real test of prediction market accuracy. Here's what large samples of resolved contracts actually show, and where the record breaks down.
Jared Polites · Jul 26
What Is Manifold Markets? How It Works
Manifold Markets is a play-money prediction market where anyone can create a market. Here is how mana works, who resolves markets, and how it compares.
Jared Polites
How Long Does It Take for Prediction Markets to Resolve?
Resolution speed depends on governance, not software. Kalshi confirmed a real Fed decision in eight minutes; Polymarket's identical contract took two hours because its dispute window ran uncontested.
Jared Polites · Aug 5