TOTAL VOLUME:

$104.1b

24H VOL:

$114,311,902

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,083,183,155

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,065,613,191

201,513

Markets across

20,137

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

1,345

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

44%

VS.

Kalshi:

56%

BETA

Education

Foundational explainers on how prediction markets work and the concepts behind them.

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How Accurate Are Prediction Markets? What the Resolved-Market Data Shows

Calibration, not who-won, is the real test of prediction market accuracy. Here's what large samples of resolved contracts actually show, and where the record breaks down.

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Jared Polites · Jul 26