TOTAL VOLUME:
$140.7b
24H VOL:
$176,618,688
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,543,053,589
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,606,811,120
418,163
Markets across
32,862
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,828
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Trading Guides
Practical, step-by-step guides to trading on prediction markets — from first order to advanced strategies.
How to Track Prediction Market Prices Without Refreshing Five Tabs
Tracking a market means watching last price, mid price, volume, and timestamp together, across every platform that lists it. Here's what each of the five major platforms actually shows you.
Jared Polites · Sep 26
Hedge Funds Using Prediction Markets: How Event Contracts Hedge Risk Options Can't Touch
Options and swaps hedge a price move. A Kalshi event contract hedges the ruling or decision that caused it, and that difference is turning event contracts into a real institutional hedge.
Jared Polites · Sep 21
Prediction Market Wash Trading: How to Spot Fake Volume
Wash trading is a trader taking both sides of a contract to fake volume with zero real risk. Here's how it works, why on-chain platforms are more exposed, and the signals that give it away.
Jared Polites · Sep 12
How to Backtest a Prediction Market Strategy (Without Fooling Yourself)
A backtest is only as good as the price data underneath it: survivorship bias, thin liquidity, and too few independent events can each quietly inflate your results.
Jared Polites · Sep 8
What Is a Prediction Market Whale? How to Spot Large Positions and Read Smart Money Claims
Position size alone proves nothing. Here's how to separate real information from ordinary risk-taking and wash trading, and why some platforms let you check a wallet's history while others don't.
Jared Polites · Sep 4
How to Spot a Manipulated Prediction Market Before You Trust the Price
Wash trading, thin-book spikes, resolution clustering, and self-dealing are the four patterns that give away a manipulated price. Here's how to check for each one.
Jared Polites · Aug 26