TOTAL VOLUME:
$149.1b
24H VOL:
$286,558,852
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,818,747,506
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,918,431,009
455,042
Markets across
33,855
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,677
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
#Prediction Markets
Analysis, predictions, and breakdowns from across the markets.
Prediction Market Data: Where to Get It, What It Costs and How to Use It
Where to find prediction market data, from platform APIs to the Polymarket leaderboard, what each source costs, and how to use it without being misled.
Jared Polites · Oct 22
Kalshi Betting: Is It Betting, and What Do You Actually Trade?
People call it Kalshi betting, but you trade Yes or No contracts that settle at $1 or $0. Here is what you buy, how it differs from a wager, and why states argue.
Jared Polites · Oct 22
NBA Awards Odds 2026: DPOY, Coach of the Year and MVP
How to read NBA DPOY odds, Coach of the Year odds and NBA MVP odds on prediction markets, and why the 65-game rule and a season-long clock change the price.
Jared Polites · Oct 22
Government Shutdown Odds: How Prediction Markets Price a Shutdown
How to read government shutdown odds before the December 11 funding deadline: what these contracts measure, how platforms differ, and what to check first.
Jared Polites · Oct 18
Fed Rate Cut Odds: How to Read the Market Before the Next FOMC Meeting
Fed rate cut odds look different after September's hike. Here's how to read a Fed decision market and check the number across platforms before you rely on it.
Jared Polites · Oct 18
Is Kalshi Legal in Florida? (2026)
Kalshi is available in Florida and the state hasn't sued it, but the Seminole compact and a new DraftKings lawsuit keep the question open.
Jared Polites · Oct 18
Is Kalshi Legal in Washington? (2026 Update)
A Washington judge blocked Kalshi's sports, election, and politics contracts in August 2026. Economics and finance markets stay open. Here's the case and what's next.
Jared Polites · Oct 18
Is Kalshi Legal in New York? (2026)
Kalshi is still available in New York, but the state has beaten it in federal court and is now suing it. Here's the real status, and what could change it.
Jared Polites · Oct 18
Prediction Market Glossary: 100 Terms Explained
Resolution, open interest, spread, DCM, oracle and 95 more terms, defined in plain English so you can read any prediction market with confidence.
Jared Polites · Oct 18
Kalshi API Guide: Access, Endpoints, WebSocket Data & Rate Limits (2026)
How the Kalshi API works: keyless market data, signed trading, REST and WebSocket feeds, historical candlesticks, and the real rate-limit tiers.
Jared Polites · Oct 18
Is Kalshi Legal in Texas? (2026)
Kalshi is available in Texas and no state or court order blocks it. But lawmakers are studying it, and the federal court fight over sports contracts isn't over.
Jared Polites · Oct 16
Best Prediction Market Apps (2026): Ranked and Compared
Kalshi now leads the industry on raw volume; Polymarket still has roughly 8x its unique trader base. Here's the whole roster, ranked and compared.
Jared Polites · Oct 12
Do Prediction Markets Affect the Stock Market?
Prediction market odds and stock prices often move together, but that's usually because both are reacting to the same news at the same moment, not because one is driving the other.
Jared Polites · Oct 5
Prediction Market Terms of Service: What to Check Before You Sign Up
Withdrawal conditions, account freezes, dispute resolution, and force majeure outcomes differ sharply across Kalshi, Polymarket, Limitless, Predict.Fun, and Opinion.
Jared Polites · Oct 4
Prediction Markets vs Betting Exchanges: What Actually Separates Them
Betfair matches bettors against each other under a UK gambling license. Kalshi trades CFTC-regulated event contracts.
Jared Polites · Oct 2
How Are Prediction Market Odds Set? The First Price on a New Contract
A new contract's first price isn't a forecast. It's a market maker's opening quote, seeded from a borrowed reference point and however much capital gets risked.
Jared Polites · Oct 2
Is My Money Safe on Prediction Markets? Custody Explained Across Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless, Predict.Fun, and Opinion
Kalshi and Polymarket US hold your cash in CFTC-segregated accounts, a real protection, but not an insurance guarantee.
Jared Polites · Oct 1
Prediction Market AMMs vs Order Books: Why the Same Trade Moves Price Differently
A $500 trade barely moves one platform's price and swings another's by several cents. The difference is whether you're matched to another trader, or priced against a pool.
Jared Polites · Sep 30
Prediction Market Arbitrage: Why the Price Gap Rarely Pays Out
A Kalshi-Polymarket price gap looks like free money until fees, KYC delays, withdrawal friction, and mismatched settlement rules eat most of it before the trade clears.
Jared Polites · Sep 29
How to Cite Prediction Market Data in Research (Without Getting the Stats Wrong)
A prediction market price is a timestamped snapshot of belief, not a probability with a confidence interval.
Jared Polites · Sep 28
Prediction Market Futures Contracts: How Long-Dated Odds Actually Move
A contract that resolves in six months doesn't behave like one that resolves tonight. Here's how the calendar, capital lockup, and thin order books shape long-dated odds.
Jared Polites · Sep 27
How to Track Prediction Market Prices Without Refreshing Five Tabs
Tracking a market means watching last price, mid price, volume, and timestamp together, across every platform that lists it. Here's what each of the five major platforms actually shows you.
Jared Polites · Sep 26
Is Polymarket Legit? What the Data and the Regulatory Record Actually Show (2026)
Yes, Polymarket is a legitimate, well-funded exchange that pays out onchain. Here's the full record, good and bad.
Jared Polites · Sep 25
What Happens When a Prediction Market Event Gets Cancelled
A cancelled or postponed event doesn't reliably mean a refund: Kalshi settles at the last traded price, Polymarket's rare fallback is a 50/50 split.
Jared Polites · Sep 24
Oscars Prediction Market Odds: How Awards-Season Contracts Actually Move
Oscar contracts jump in fixed steps tied to guild wins and nomination day, not gradual drift, because Academy voters overlap directly with the guilds that vote weeks earlier.
Jared Polites · Sep 23
Favorite-Longshot Bias in Prediction Markets: Why Longshots Are Overpriced
Longshot contracts routinely cost more than their real odds justify. Here's the order-book mechanic that inflates them, and how to correct for it.
Jared Polites · Sep 22
Hedge Funds Using Prediction Markets: How Event Contracts Hedge Risk Options Can't Touch
Options and swaps hedge a price move. A Kalshi event contract hedges the ruling or decision that caused it, and that difference is turning event contracts into a real institutional hedge.
Jared Polites · Sep 21
Prediction Market Position Limits: Why You Can't Bet Unlimited Size
Kalshi enforces real, CFTC-filed position limits, some as low as $25,000. Polymarket's international platform and its separate US exchange handle size two different ways.
Jared Polites · Sep 20
Prediction Market KYC Requirements: What ID You Need on Each Platform
Kalshi requires full ID verification to fund an account. Polymarket, Limitless, Predict.Fun, and Opinion only need a connected crypto wallet, with Polymarket's own US arm as the one exception.
Jared Polites · Sep 17
Corporate Event Prediction Markets: Earnings, CEOs, and Product Launches
Earnings prints, CEO exits, and product launches all trade as prediction market contracts, but the company sets the clock, not the news cycle.
Jared Polites · Sep 16
Correlated Prediction Markets: How Related Contracts Constrain Each Other's Prices
A primary contract at 40 cents and a general contract at 45 cents for the same candidate can't both be right. The arithmetic behind correlated contracts on five prediction market platforms.
Jared Polites · Sep 15
Using Prediction Markets for Journalism: A Reporting Workflow
A field guide for reporters: how to monitor prediction markets as a beat, judge a real move from noise, and vet a number before it goes in a story.
Jared Polites · Sep 14
US Regulated Prediction Markets: Who's In, Who's Not, and Where the Lines Are Blurring
IBKR, Robinhood, Gemini, DraftKings, and FanDuel all built or bought regulated exchanges of their own this year, while federal courts split on whether any of it preempts state law.
Jared Polites · Sep 13
Prediction Market Wash Trading: How to Spot Fake Volume
Wash trading is a trader taking both sides of a contract to fake volume with zero real risk. Here's how it works, why on-chain platforms are more exposed, and the signals that give it away.
Jared Polites · Sep 12
Prediction Market Liquidity Comparison: Why Some Platforms Are Structurally Deeper
Every platform can quote a price. Not all of them can back it once real size hits the book. Here's what actually determines whether liquidity holds, platform by platform.
Jared Polites · Sep 11
How to Read Prediction Market Rules Before You Trust the Price
Two platforms can price the same event five points apart, not because traders disagree, but because the contracts ask slightly different questions. Read the wording before you read the price.
Jared Polites · Sep 10
CPI Prediction Market Contracts: How They're Structured and Priced
CPI, jobs report, and GDP contracts don't price a single outcome. They price a ladder of ranges, and the five platforms differ on how those ranges get built and settled.
Jared Polites · Sep 9
How to Backtest a Prediction Market Strategy (Without Fooling Yourself)
A backtest is only as good as the price data underneath it: survivorship bias, thin liquidity, and too few independent events can each quietly inflate your results.
Jared Polites · Sep 8
Kalshi & Polymarket Taxes: Are Winnings Taxable? Yes, Even Without a 1099
Kalshi, Polymarket, Limitless, Predict.Fun, and Opinion all create the same tax obligation on trading gains, and none of them, Kalshi included, sends you a form that covers it.
Jared Polites · Sep 7
Prediction Market Overround: Why the Odds Don't Add Up to 100%
A three-candidate market pricing at 105 cents isn't broken. Here's what that extra 5 cents actually means and why sportsbook vig is a different animal.
Jared Polites · Sep 6
What Is a Prediction Market Whale? How to Spot Large Positions and Read Smart Money Claims
Position size alone proves nothing. Here's how to separate real information from ordinary risk-taking and wash trading, and why some platforms let you check a wallet's history while others don't.
Jared Polites · Sep 4
ECB, BoE, and BoJ Rate Decisions: What Prediction Markets Show
Kalshi and Polymarket price the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan the same way they price the Fed.
Jared Polites · Aug 30
Why an Election Prediction Market Can Stay Open After the News Calls the Race
A contract doesn't pay out when CNN calls it. It pays out when the specific event named in its resolution criteria actually happens, and that gap can run days or weeks past election night.
Jared Polites · Aug 29
Prediction Markets vs Sportsbooks: What Actually Changes When You Trade an Event Contract
Here's exactly what changes when you trade a Kalshi or Polymarket event contract instead of betting a sportsbook line.
Jared Polites · Aug 27
Weather Prediction Markets: How Temperature, Snowfall, and Hurricane Contracts Get Priced
Temperature, snowfall, and hurricane contracts resolve against NOAA and National Weather Service data, not a forecaster's opinion. Here's how the brackets, splits, and pricing actually work.
Jared Polites · Aug 26
How to Spot a Manipulated Prediction Market Before You Trust the Price
Wash trading, thin-book spikes, resolution clustering, and self-dealing are the four patterns that give away a manipulated price. Here's how to check for each one.
Jared Polites · Aug 26
Prediction Markets Regulation Outside the US: A Global Map
The CFTC model is the exception, not the template. More than 30 jurisdictions now restrict access to at least one major platform, and the UK, EU, and Asia each classify event contracts differently.
Jared Polites · Aug 25
Recurring Prediction Market Contracts: How to Read a Chain, Not a Single Bet
A recurring contract is not one market. It's a series that resets every cycle, and reading only the latest instance means missing the trend entirely.
Jared Polites · Aug 24
Best Prediction Markets by Category: Where to Look for Politics, Sports, Crypto, and More
There's no single best prediction market. Kalshi, Polymarket, Limitless, Predict.Fun, and Opinion were each built for a different kind of question.
Jared Polites · Aug 22
Why Prediction Market Odds Disagree Across Platforms (And How to Read the Gap)
A price gap between Polymarket and Kalshi isn't a pricing error. Find out what it really represents.
Jared Polites · Aug 19
Kalshi Fees vs Polymarket Fees: How Prediction Market Fees Actually Work
Kalshi, Polymarket, Predict.Fun, and Opinion now all charge takers a fee that peaks on a 50-cent contract and fades toward the extremes.
Jared Polites · Aug 18
Are Prediction Markets Legal? The CFTC vs. States (2026)
Prediction markets are legal for contracts structured as CFTC-regulated event contracts but the question is open for sports-outcome contracts according to state gambling law.
Jared Polites · Aug 9
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Is Right for You?
Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and dollar-funded. Polymarket runs on USDC with deeper global liquidity and now has its own regulated US arm too. Compare live.
Jared Polites · Jul 30
Is Kalshi Legit? A Data-Backed Review (2026)
Yes, Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and has been since 2020. Here's what that actually protects, what the fees really cost, what deposits and withdrawals are like, and the state-by-state legal fight.
Jared Polites · Jul 27
How Accurate Are Prediction Markets? What the Resolved-Market Data Shows
Calibration, not who-won, is the real test of prediction market accuracy. Here's what large samples of resolved contracts actually show, and where the record breaks down.
Jared Polites · Jul 26
What Are Prediction Markets? How They Actually Work
Prediction markets price real-world events the way markets price stocks. See how they work, and compare live odds across all 5 major platforms.
Jared Polites · Jul 10
How Long Does It Take for Prediction Markets to Resolve?
Resolution speed depends on governance, not software. Kalshi confirmed a real Fed decision in eight minutes; Polymarket's identical contract took two hours because its dispute window ran uncontested.
Jared Polites · Aug 5
How to Hedge Using Prediction Markets and Crypto
Options and perpetuals hedge price. Prediction markets hedge the event you are actually afraid of. Here is how to build the cleaner hedge.
Jared Polites · Jun 16