TOTAL VOLUME:
$124b
24H VOL:
$84,547,050
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,121,338,658
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,287,835,486
364,458
Markets across
33,243
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
3,079
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
41%
VS.
Kalshi:
59%
#Prediction Markets
Analysis, predictions, and breakdowns from across the markets.
CPI Prediction Market Contracts: How They're Structured and Priced
CPI, jobs report, and GDP contracts don't price a single outcome. They price a ladder of ranges, and the five platforms differ on how those ranges get built and settled.
Jared Polites · Sep 9
How to Backtest a Prediction Market Strategy (Without Fooling Yourself)
A backtest is only as good as the price data underneath it: survivorship bias, thin liquidity, and too few independent events can each quietly inflate your results.
Jared Polites · Sep 8
Are Prediction Market Winnings Taxable? Yes, Even Without a 1099
Kalshi, Polymarket, Limitless, Predict.Fun, and Opinion all create the same tax obligation on trading gains, and none of them, Kalshi included, sends you a form that covers it.
Jared Polites · Sep 7
Prediction Market Overround: Why the Odds Don't Add Up to 100%
A three-candidate market pricing at 105 cents isn't broken. Here's what that extra 5 cents actually means and why sportsbook vig is a different animal.
Jared Polites · Sep 6
What Is a Prediction Market Whale? How to Spot Large Positions and Read Smart Money Claims
Position size alone proves nothing. Here's how to separate real information from ordinary risk-taking and wash trading, and why some platforms let you check a wallet's history while others don't.
Jared Polites · Sep 4
ECB, BoE, and BoJ Rate Decisions: What Prediction Markets Show
Kalshi and Polymarket price the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan the same way they price the Fed.
Jared Polites · Aug 30
Why an Election Prediction Market Can Stay Open After the News Calls the Race
A contract doesn't pay out when CNN calls it. It pays out when the specific event named in its resolution criteria actually happens, and that gap can run days or weeks past election night.
Jared Polites · Aug 29
Prediction Markets vs Sportsbooks: What Actually Changes When You Trade an Event Contract
Here's exactly what changes when you trade a Kalshi or Polymarket event contract instead of betting a sportsbook line.
Jared Polites · Aug 28
Weather Prediction Markets: How Temperature, Snowfall, and Hurricane Contracts Get Priced
Temperature, snowfall, and hurricane contracts resolve against NOAA and National Weather Service data, not a forecaster's opinion. Here's how the brackets, splits, and pricing actually work.
Jared Polites · Aug 27
How to Spot a Manipulated Prediction Market Before You Trust the Price
Wash trading, thin-book spikes, resolution clustering, and self-dealing are the four patterns that give away a manipulated price. Here's how to check for each one.
Jared Polites · Aug 26
Prediction Markets Regulation Outside the US: A Global Map
The CFTC model is the exception, not the template. More than 30 jurisdictions now restrict access to at least one major platform, and the UK, EU, and Asia each classify event contracts differently.
Jared Polites · Aug 25
Recurring Prediction Market Contracts: How to Read a Chain, Not a Single Bet
A recurring contract is not one market. It's a series that resets every cycle, and reading only the latest instance means missing the trend entirely.
Jared Polites · Aug 24
Best Prediction Markets by Category: Where to Look for Politics, Sports, Crypto, and More
There's no single best prediction market. Kalshi, Polymarket, Limitless, Predict.Fun, and Opinion were each built for a different kind of question.
Jared Polites · Aug 22
Why Prediction Market Odds Disagree Across Platforms (And How to Read the Gap)
A price gap between Polymarket and Kalshi isn't a pricing error. Find out what it really represents.
Jared Polites · Aug 19
How Do Prediction Market Fees Actually Work?
Kalshi, Polymarket, Predict.Fun, and Opinion now all charge takers a fee that peaks on a 50-cent contract and fades toward the extremes.
Jared Polites · Aug 18
Are Prediction Markets Legal? The CFTC vs. States (2026)
Prediction markets are legal for contracts structured as CFTC-regulated event contracts but the question is open for sports-outcome contracts according to state gambling law.
Jared Polites · Aug 10
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Is Right for You?
Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and dollar-funded. Polymarket runs on USDC with deeper global liquidity and now has its own regulated US arm too. Compare live.
Jared Polites · Jul 30
Is Kalshi Legit? A Data-Backed Review (2026)
Yes, Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and has been since 2020. Here's what that actually protects, what the fees really cost, what deposits and withdrawals are like, and the state-by-state legal fight.
Jared Polites · Jul 28
How Accurate Are Prediction Markets? What the Resolved-Market Data Shows
Calibration, not who-won, is the real test of prediction market accuracy. Here's what large samples of resolved contracts actually show, and where the record breaks down.
Jared Polites · Jul 26
What Are Prediction Markets? How They Actually Work
Prediction markets price real-world events the way markets price stocks. See how they work, and compare live odds across all 5 major platforms.
Jared Polites · Jul 10
How Long Does It Take for Prediction Markets to Resolve?
Resolution speed depends on governance, not software. Kalshi confirmed a real Fed decision in eight minutes; Polymarket's identical contract took two hours because its dispute window ran uncontested.
Jared Polites · Aug 5
How to Hedge Using Prediction Markets and Crypto
Options and perpetuals hedge price. Prediction markets hedge the event you are actually afraid of. Here is how to build the cleaner hedge.
Jared Polites · Jun 16