Breaking

It's the raw size of the probability shift — measured in percentage points, not as a percentage of the previous price. So "+74 pts" means the market's implied probability moved 74 percentage points in the last 24 hours — for example, from 10% to 84%. This matters because percentage-based framing is misleading: a market moving from 2% to 4% is technically a 100% price increase but only a 2-point move, which is not particularly significant. Showing percentage points gives you the honest measure of how much collective belief actually changed.

Deliberately. Breaking is designed to be discovery-friendly — a new market with a 70-point probability shift belongs in the feed even if it only has $2,000 in total volume, because the signal is real regardless of market size. Large established markets with modest moves will not automatically displace a small market where something genuinely dramatic just happened. There is a very light penalty applied to thin markets to reduce noise, but it is intentionally small — it can never push a genuine breaking signal out of the feed.

Because a probability shift only has urgency when resolution is imminent. If a market moves 50 points but resolves in eight months, there is plenty of time for the price to move again — possibly back. The information may be interesting but it is not breaking in any meaningful sense. The 7-day window is the threshold where a price move starts to feel urgent: if you are going to act on it, you need to know about it now. Markets with longer time horizons are better served by the Trending feed, which rewards sustained signal over time rather than immediacy.

Unlike Trending — which adjusts for platform size by comparing each market only against others on the same platform in the same category — Breaking uses a single global pool. A 70-point probability shift is a 70-point probability shift whether it happens on Polymarket or Kalshi or Opinion. The signal is absolute and speaks for itself. This means a small market on a smaller platform can legitimately outrank a large Polymarket market if its price moved more dramatically — and that is the correct result. The same real-world question can appear twice in the Breaking feed if it qualifies independently on two different platforms, each showing its own platform logo and its own probability number, which will sometimes differ.

They measure fundamentally different things. Trending asks: which markets have the most sustained, accelerating activity across volume, capital, and price movement? Breaking asks: which markets just received new information? A large election market that has been steadily active for weeks is Trending. A small financial market that moved 60 points in the last 24 hours because of an unexpected announcement is Breaking. The same market can appear in both feeds simultaneously — if it qualifies, it will show up in both places with the appropriate badge, and you will see it on whichever page you are on.