War Index

The War Index aggregates market-implied probabilities from conflict-related markets across Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless, Predict.fun, and Opinion into one composite score. Each qualifying market is weighted by how much activity sits behind it, measured as a combination of liquidity and trading volume, and by a severity level reflecting how serious the underlying event is. Those weighted prices roll up into six regional sub-indices, which combine into the headline score. No single event can account for more than 15% of the total, which keeps one market from dominating. It is a transparent weighted average of public market prices, not a machine learning model, and it recalculates every 15 minutes.

The War Index tracks six regions: Middle East, Russia–Ukraine, China–Taiwan, North Korea and Nuclear, US Engagement, and Other. Each region has its own sub-index score calculated from the conflict markets in that region, and the six sub-indices are combined with equal weight to produce the overall index.

Signal strength measures how much market activity backs the current score, not the level of risk itself. It reflects the combined liquidity and trading volume behind the markets feeding the index. Low signal means thin volume and a less reliable read, so the score should be treated with more caution. High signal means deep, liquid markets and a more dependable reading. A market needs at least a minimum level of activity to be included at all, which keeps inactive markets from skewing the score.

The status label is a plain-language band for the current score, making it readable at a glance without interpreting the raw number. The five bands are Calm (0 to 20), Watchful (20 to 40), Elevated (40 to 60), Danger Zone (60 to 80), and Critical (80 to 100). As the composite score rises, the label moves up the scale. The label describes how markets are pricing risk today and is not a prediction.

The War Index recalculates every 15 minutes. Each cycle pulls the latest market prices, recomputes the regional sub-indices and the headline score, and records a snapshot so the history chart and the 24-hour and 7-day changes stay current. If a calculation cannot complete, the last good snapshot stays live and the page shows when it was last updated.

The War Index draws on conflict-related markets from five platforms: Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless, Predict.fun, and Opinion. Markets qualify based on their title and category, so only genuinely conflict-related questions feed the score. The same event listed across several platforms is matched and counted once, so duplicate listings do not inflate the index.

No. The War Index is aggregated market data and an informational signal only. Nothing in it is financial, legal, or investment advice. Prediction markets are volatile and speculative, and the index reflects market sentiment rather than a guaranteed outcome. Always do your own research before making any decision involving risk.