TOTAL VOLUME:

$142.3b

24H VOL:

$107,419,736

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,643,541,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,594,026,835

471,138

Markets across

35,775

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,926

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
polymarket
limitless

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Total volume:
$74,051,189
Volume 24h:
$36,618
79%
Liquidity:
$518,345
11%
Open interest:
$7,106,964N/A

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Limitless

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

17%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 17¢ buys you 588 shares | Odds: 17% Total Payout: $588 | Net Profit: $488 Multiplier: 5.88x | ROI: 488% APY not meaningful 78 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Trade
17%
Yes 17¢No 84¢
1¢
$518,345
$74,051,141
0.05%
2%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
limitless

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Trade
17%
Yes 16.5¢No 83.5¢
1¢
N/A
$48
0%
37%
N/A
2mo 2w 2d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
16.5%
Yes 16.8¢No 83.7¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1¢
Total markets: 2

Intro

This market tracks the probability of a U.S. military invasion of Iran before the end of 2026. Currently, the consensus probability of this occurring, as aggregated from Polymarket and Limitless, is 16.5%. Resolution will be based on a consensus of credible sources determining whether the U.S. begins a military offensive intended to establish control over Iranian territory. Keep an eye on developments as we approach the resolution date estimate of January 1, 2027, which marks the end of the betting period for this question.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms utilize identical resolution criteria, timing, and source definitions, indicating a high degree of consistency.Primary resolution logic: Consensus of credible sources

Core resolution logic:

  • The U.S. must commence a military offensive.
  • The offensive must be intended to establish control over a portion of Iran.
  • Control is defined by de facto control as of November 4, 2025.
  • The offensive must begin before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Limited Strikes: Airstrikes or limited military actions that do not aim to establish control over territory would not resolve the market to 'Yes'.
  • Proxy Warfare: Military support for opposition groups within Iran, without direct U.S. military intervention, would not resolve the market to 'Yes'.
  • Territorial Disputes: Disputes over territories already controlled as of November 4, 2025, would not trigger a 'Yes' resolution.
Timing: The market will resolve upon a consensus of credible sources determining that a U.S. military offensive intended to establish control over Iranian territory has commenced, or upon December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if no such offensive has begun.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Limitless

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Limitless, this dashboard tracks the likelihood of a U.S. military invasion of Iran before Jan 1, 2027. It aggregates trading activity from both platforms to provide a consensus view of predictions. Currently, the combined volume across both venues is $74,051,189, with $36,204 traded in the last 24 hours. This allows for a comprehensive look at what traders believe about the potential for conflict, offering a unique perspective beyond traditional polling. The current implied probability, based on the combined markets, is approximately 0.0.

Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often provide a more accurate forecast than traditional polls. Polls rely on stated preferences, which can be influenced by social desirability bias or a lack of informed opinion. In contrast, this market incentivizes participants to reveal their *true* beliefs through financial stakes. While polls may capture public sentiment, the collective wisdom of traders in this market reflects a more considered assessment of geopolitical risks. It's important to remember that both methods have limitations, but prediction markets have historically demonstrated strong forecasting ability.

Prices on Polymarket and Limitless can diverge due to several factors. Each platform has its own user base, trading dynamics, and liquidity levels. Polymarket and Limitless can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Differences in trading fees and platform-specific rules can also contribute to price discrepancies. Furthermore, the volume traded on each platform differs—Polymarket currently has a higher volume of $74,051,189—which can influence price discovery. Currently, Polymarket currently favors Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? at 16.5%, while Limitless leans toward Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? at 16.5%.

Several events could significantly impact this market. Escalations in regional tensions, such as attacks on U.S. assets or Iranian nuclear facilities, would likely increase the probability of invasion. Major policy shifts from the U.S. or Iranian governments, particularly regarding nuclear negotiations or military posture, could also move the market. Unexpected geopolitical events, like a war involving regional allies, could also influence trader sentiment. Conversely, positive diplomatic developments or a de-escalation of tensions could lower the perceived risk of conflict, impacting the volume of $74,051,189.