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364,603

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Brazil Presidential Election
polymarket
opinion
predict

Who will win the Brazil Presidential Election?

Total volume:
$155,461,826
Volume 24h:
$989,369
21%
Liquidity:
$18,088,966
2%
Open interest:
$6,570,397N/A

Flávio Bolsonaro

all

3 markets

Opinion

Predict

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 26, 2026

Time left: 23d:15h:49m

Flávio Bolsonaro

90%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
opinion

Trade on Opinion

At 99.9¢ buys you 100 shares | Odds: 90% Total Payout: $100 | Net Profit: $0 Multiplier: 1.00x | ROI: 0.1% | APY: 1% 23 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
opinion

Flávio Bolsonaro

Trade
90%
Yes 99.9¢No 99.9¢
99.8¢
N/A
$108
0%
0%
N/A
3w 2d 15h
active
predict

Flávio Bolsonaro

Trade
47%
1%
Yes 46.6¢No 53.5¢
0.1¢
$120,270
$296,253
0.65%
8%
N/A
1mo 2w 1d
active
polymarket

Flávio Bolsonaro

Trade
46%
1%
Yes 46.5¢No 53.6¢
0.1¢
$198,212
$10,090,028
1%
6%
N/A
3w 2d 15h
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
61%
Yes 64.3¢No 69¢
Avg: 33.3¢Max: 99.8¢
opinion

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Trade
71%
Yes 99.9¢No 99.9¢
99.8¢
N/A
$99
0%
0%
N/A
3w 2d 15h
active
predict

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Trade
52%
1%
Yes 52¢No 48.1¢
0.1¢
$165,842
$157,056
0.84%
23%
N/A
1mo 2w 1d
active
polymarket

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Trade
52%
Yes 52¢No 49¢
1¢
$244,239
$10,260,695
0.82%
7%
N/A
3w 2d 15h
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
58.3%
Yes 68¢No 65.7¢
Avg: 33.6¢Max: 99.8¢
polymarket

Renan Santos

Trade
2%
Yes 2¢No 98.3¢
0.3¢
$360,603
$13,064,433
2%
5%
N/A
3w 2d 15h
active
predict

Renan Santos

Trade
2%
Yes 1.9¢No 98.5¢
0.4¢
$166,957
$113,243
3%
6%
N/A
1mo 2w 1d
active
opinion

Renan Santos

Trade
N/A
N/A
99.8¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3w 2d 15h
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
2%
Yes 2¢No 98.4¢
Avg: 33.5¢Max: 99.8¢
predict

Camilo Santana

Trade
2%
Yes 3.2¢No 99.9¢
3.1¢
$34,861
$37
0%
0%
N/A
1mo 2w 1d
active
polymarket

Camilo Santana

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$534,308
$5,517,424
1%
1%
N/A
3w 2d 15h
active
opinion

Camilo Santana

Trade
N/A
N/A
99.8¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3w 2d 15h
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
1%
Yes 1.7¢No 100¢
Avg: 51.5¢Max: 99.8¢
predict

Michelle Bolsonaro

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 99¢
—
$37,313
$2,806,729
1%
10%
N/A
1mo 2w 1d
active
polymarket

Michelle Bolsonaro

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$724,266
$10,338,216
0%
0.01%
N/A
3w 2d 15h
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
0.5%
Yes 0.6¢No 99.5¢
Avg: —Max: —
predict

Jair Bolsonaro

Trade
1%
Yes 0.7¢No 99.4¢
0.1¢
$227,895
$295,737
0.02%
0.11%
N/A
1mo 2w 1d
active
polymarket

Jair Bolsonaro

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$511,486
$6,749,802
1%
3%
N/A
3w 2d 15h
active
opinion

Jair Bolsonaro

Trade
N/A
N/A
99.8¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3w 2d 15h
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
0.5%
Yes 0.5¢No 99.6¢
Avg: 33.3¢Max: 99.8¢
predict

Ronaldo Caiado

Trade
1%
Yes 0.9¢No 99.9¢
0.8¢
$34,994
$1,147,420
0%
0%
N/A
1mo 2w 1d
active
polymarket

Ronaldo Caiado

Trade
0%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.8¢
0.1¢
$1,116,964
$7,371,145
0.43%
4%
N/A
3w 2d 15h
active
opinion

Ronaldo Caiado

Trade
N/A
N/A
99.8¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3w 2d 15h
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
0.5%
Yes 0.6¢No 99.9¢
Avg: 33.6¢Max: 99.8¢
predict

Eduardo Bolsonaro

Trade
1%
Yes 0.9¢No 99.9¢
0.8¢
$34,409
$111,271
0.02%
0.02%
N/A
1mo 2w 1d
active
polymarket

Eduardo Bolsonaro

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$1,946,255
$10,445,615
0%
0.01%
N/A
3w 2d 15h
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
0.5%
Yes 0.5¢No 100¢
Avg: 0.8¢Max: 0.8¢
polymarket

Person N

Trade
0%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.8¢
0.1¢
$439,767
$4,512,430
3%
25%
N/A
3w 2d 15h
active
predict

Tarcisio de Freitas

Trade
0%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.9¢
0.2¢
$37,389
$2,149,663
2%
6%
N/A
1mo 2w 1d
active
polymarket

Tarcisio de Freitas

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$818,099
$14,067,083
0%
0.01%
N/A
3w 2d 15h
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 100¢
Avg: 0.2¢Max: 0.2¢
Total markets: 25 of 41

Intro

This market tracks whether Flávio Bolsonaro will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. The aggregated consensus probability for Flávio Bolsonaro stands at 90.0% across Polymarket, Predict, and Opinion. The final result will be determined by the Superior Electoral Court. The outcome will be confirmed following the election on October 4, 2026, with official results and resolution expected by October 26, 2026.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All three platforms (Polymarket, Opinion, Predict) apply consistent resolution criteria tied to TSE official results, with identical timing and fallback logic.Primary resolution logic: Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) - https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/

Core resolution logic:

  • Market resolves to the candidate who wins the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
  • Resolution includes any potential second round (runoff) if required by Brazilian electoral law
  • Resolution is based on consensus of credible reporting, with TSE official results as authoritative source in case of ambiguity
  • Each candidate-specific market (e.g., 'Will Lula win') resolves YES if that candidate wins, NO otherwise
  • The 'another person' or placeholder markets (Person K through Person Z) resolve YES only if a candidate not explicitly named wins the election

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Delayed Result: If the election result is not known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, all markets resolve to 'Other'
  • Ambiguous Outcome: In case of disputed or ambiguous results, TSE official determination is the sole authoritative source
  • Placeholder Candidates: Markets for 'Person K' through 'Person Z' and 'another person' are catch-all categories; they resolve YES only if a winner emerges who is not one of the explicitly named candidates
  • Candidate Withdrawal: If a candidate withdraws before the election, their market resolves NO; if they withdraw after winning (impossible in a completed election), TSE official results determine the actual winner
  • Title Mismatch on Predict: Predict platform lists 'Ratinho Júnior' as title for 'Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior' question; both refer to the same candidate and resolve identically
Timing: Election occurs October 4, 2026. Resolution deadline is June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Markets resolve based on TSE official announcement, typically within days of the election.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Predict

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Opinion

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Frequently asked questions

The Brazil presidential race dashboard aggregates odds and liquidity from multiple venues, giving you a live snapshot of market expectations for the upcoming election. It tracks the top candidates’ probabilities, total volume of $155,461,826, and recent 24-hour volume of $987,467. This multi-platform view shows how traders across different prediction markets are positioning themselves ahead of the final vote.

Prediction market odds often differ from traditional polling averages because traders price in real-money stakes and react to new information faster than pollsters can survey the public. While polls provide a snapshot of voter intent, this market reflects a dynamic consensus that incorporates betting behavior, news events, and perceived campaign momentum. The gap between the two can vary widely, especially in volatile political climates.

On Polymarket and Opinion, prices can diverge due to differences in user bases, liquidity, and market design. Polymarket and Opinion can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For example, one platform might attract more international traders who view the race differently than local participants on the other venue. Additionally, varying levels of trading volume can amplify small shifts in sentiment, leading to noticeable spreads such as 38.5 between the two platforms.

This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the election result is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final tally of valid votes will determine the winner, and all major prediction venues typically update their settlement once official results are announced and uncontested.