TOTAL VOLUME:

$143.5b

24H VOL:

$195,145,316

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,692,168,434

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,731,064,451

482,647

Markets across

36,631

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,924

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Brazil Presidential Election
kalshi
polymarket
predict
opinion

Who will win the Brazil Presidential Election?

Total volume:
$205,344,161
Volume 24h:
$3,418,619
35%
Liquidity:
$1,802,307
94%
Open interest:
$4,413,627
0.5%

Flávio Bolsonaro

all

4 markets

Opinion

Kalshi

Predict

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 26, 2026

Flávio Bolsonaro

90%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
opinion

Trade on Opinion

At 90¢ buys you 111 shares | Odds: 90% Total Payout: $111 | Net Profit: $11 Multiplier: 1.11x | ROI: 11% | APY: N/A
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
opinion

Flávio Bolsonaro

Trade
90%
Yes 90¢No 10¢
—
N/A
$108
0%
0%
N/A
0d 0h 0m
active
kalshi

Flávio Bolsonaro

Trade
79%
1%
Yes 79¢No 22¢
1¢
N/A
$3,058,616
4%
17%
$1,112,116
1w 19h
active
predict

Flávio Bolsonaro

Trade
78%
1%
Yes 77.5¢No 22.6¢
0.1¢
$144,460
$465,372
2%
26%
N/A
1w 1d 11h
active
polymarket

Flávio Bolsonaro

Trade
77%
Yes 77¢No 23.1¢
0.1¢
$491,747
$21,499,402
1%
12%
N/A
0d 0h 0m
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
77.2%
Yes 80.9¢No 19.4¢
Avg: 0.4¢Max: 1¢
opinion

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Trade
71%
Yes 29.5¢No 29.5¢
—
N/A
$225
0%
0%
N/A
0d 0h 0m
active
polymarket

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Trade
24%
1%
Yes 24¢No 77¢
1¢
$665,410
$25,382,613
1%
15%
N/A
0d 0h 0m
active
predict

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Trade
23%
1%
Yes 22.8¢No 77.3¢
0.1¢
$69,768
$439,415
2%
82%
N/A
1w 1d 11h
active
kalshi

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Trade
22%
2%
Yes 22¢No 79¢
1¢
N/A
$3,428,161
3%
24%
$1,396,360
1w 19h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
23.3%
Yes 24.6¢No 65.7¢
Avg: 0.7¢Max: 1¢
polymarket

Person O

Trade
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
disputed
polymarket

Renan Santos

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$17,121,884
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Renan Santos

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,208,872
N/A
N/A
$770,982
1w 19h
No
predict

Renan Santos

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
0.1¢
$62,876
$166,029
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 1d 11h
No
opinion

Renan Santos

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Tarcisio de Freitas

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14,956,503
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Tarcisio de Freitas

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$39,877
$2,171,572
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 1d 11h
No
kalshi

Tarcísio de Freitas

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$269,596
N/A
N/A
$81,824
1w 19h
No
polymarket

Ratinho Júnior

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,501,754
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Ratinho Júnior

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$138,881
N/A
N/A
$62,667
1w 19h
No
predict

Ratinho Júnior

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$37,388
$65,805
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 1d 11h
No
polymarket

Eduardo Bolsonaro

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,485,717
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Eduardo Bolsonaro

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$36,910
$111,699
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 1d 11h
No
kalshi

Eduardo Bolsonaro

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$57,664
N/A
N/A
$57,568
1w 19h
No
polymarket

Michelle Bolsonaro

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,417,999
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Michelle Bolsonaro

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$39,805
$3,725,776
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 1d 11h
No
kalshi

Michelle Bolsonaro

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$110,138
N/A
N/A
$67,791
1w 19h
No
Total markets: 25 of 56

Intro

This market tracks the outcome of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, forecasting which candidate will win the presidency, potentially after a second round of voting. Currently, Flávio Bolsonaro is predicted to win with a 90.0% probability, while Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is at 70.5%. This aggregated view combines data from Kalshi, Polymarket, Predict, and Opinion, and will resolve based on official results from https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/. Keep an eye on the official election results as reported by the TSE following the first round of voting on October 4, 2026, to see if a second round will be necessary.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket includes a large number of 'Person X' candidates, while Kalshi focuses on a defined set of named candidates, creating a scope divergence.Hero tip: Be mindful of the broader candidate pool on Polymarket. A less-known candidate winning could trigger resolution on Polymarket, while Kalshi focuses on the more prominent contenders.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Polymarket markets cover a wide range of potential candidates, including generic 'Person X' options. Resolution is based on the candidate listed as the winner by a consensus of credible reporting or the official TSE results, with a fallback to 'Other' if no winner is determined by June 30, 2027. "This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
  • Kalshi: Kalshi markets are specific to named candidates. Resolution occurs if the named candidate wins the election. "If Aldo Rebelo has won the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes."
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Kalshi

The 2026 Brazilian presidential election will determine the winner among the specified candidates. Each candidate outcome resolves to Yes if that individual wins the election. The market encompasses candidates from various political backgrounds and regions of Brazil, reflecting the competitive nature of the race. Resolution is based on the official results of the 2026 presidential election as recognized by Brazilian electoral authorities.

Predict

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Opinion

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the collective wisdom of traders predicting the outcome of the Brazil presidential election. Currently, the Polymarket and Kalshi markets show a consensus view, with a combined volume of $205,344,158 and 24-hour volume of $851,057. The dashboard aggregates data from both platforms to provide a comprehensive overview of the probabilities assigned to different potential winners. This allows for a broader understanding of expectations than looking at any single market in isolation. The current view of the Brazil presidential election market reflects a dynamic assessment of evolving information.

Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls capture stated preferences, this market reflects what people are willing to *stake* on those preferences. This can lead to divergences, as prediction markets incorporate not only who is currently favored but also assessments of uncertainty and the likelihood of unexpected events. Polling averages can be susceptible to biases in sampling or question wording, whereas the financial incentive in this market encourages more honest and informed predictions. It's important to consider both sources of information when forming an overall view.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge for several reasons. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has its own user base, trading dynamics, and fee structures, all of which can influence price discovery. Differences in liquidity – the amount of volume traded – can also contribute to price discrepancies. Furthermore, differing interpretations of available information or varying levels of risk aversion among traders on each platform can lead to differing probabilities. Currently, Polymarket currently favors Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? at 77.0%, while Kalshi leans toward Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? at 79.0%.

This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official results declared by the relevant electoral authorities in Brazil. The outcome will reflect the candidate who receives the most votes in the presidential election. The process ensures a transparent and objective determination of the winner, aligned with established democratic procedures and widely accepted sources of truth. Traders should monitor official announcements as the election progresses to stay informed about the potential resolution timeline.

Numerous signals and events could significantly impact this market. Major developments in the Brazilian economy, such as shifts in inflation or unemployment rates, could influence voter sentiment. Significant political endorsements or scandals involving leading candidates would also likely cause price movements. Unexpected policy announcements or changes in campaign strategy could also shift probabilities. Furthermore, external factors like international relations or global economic trends could play a role. Any event that alters perceptions of the candidates’ chances of winning has the potential to move this market.