TOTAL VOLUME:
$101.7b
24H VOL:
$149,332,233
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,024,173,950
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,183,381,799
180,329
Markets across
18,032
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,301
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
44%
VS.
Kalshi:
56%
Who will win the Brazil Presidential Election?
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Fernando Haddad
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Trade on Opinion
At 99¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 99% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 1% | APY: 5% 73 days to resolutionTrade on Predict
At 1.9¢ buys you 5,263 shares | Odds: 2% Total Payout: $5,263 | Net Profit: $5,163 Multiplier: 52.63x | ROI: 5,163% APY not meaningful 95 days to resolutionTrade on Polymarket
At 0.5¢ buys you 20,000 shares | Odds: 0% Total Payout: $20,000 | Net Profit: $19,900 Multiplier: 200.00x | ROI: 19,900% APY not meaningful 73 days to resolutionIntro
This market tracks the outcome of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, determining which candidate will win according to official results. The aggregated consensus probability from Polymarket, Predict, and Opinion shows Renan Santos leading at 99.0%. The Superior Electoral Court serves as the resolution source for this market. The final resolution will occur following the election results on October 4, 2026, so keep an eye on that date to see who wins the race.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
All three platforms (Polymarket, Opinion, Predict) apply consistent resolution criteria tied to TSE official results, with identical timing and fallback logic.Primary resolution logic: Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) - https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/Core resolution logic:
- Market resolves to the candidate who wins the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
- Resolution includes any potential second round (runoff) if required by Brazilian electoral law
- Resolution is based on consensus of credible reporting, with TSE official results as authoritative source in case of ambiguity
- Each candidate-specific market (e.g., 'Will Lula win') resolves YES if that candidate wins, NO otherwise
- The 'another person' or placeholder markets (Person K through Person Z) resolve YES only if a candidate not explicitly named wins the election
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Delayed Result: If the election result is not known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, all markets resolve to 'Other'
- Ambiguous Outcome: In case of disputed or ambiguous results, TSE official determination is the sole authoritative source
- Placeholder Candidates: Markets for 'Person K' through 'Person Z' and 'another person' are catch-all categories; they resolve YES only if a winner emerges who is not one of the explicitly named candidates
- Candidate Withdrawal: If a candidate withdraws before the election, their market resolves NO; if they withdraw after winning (impossible in a completed election), TSE official results determine the actual winner
- Title Mismatch on Predict: Predict platform lists 'Ratinho Júnior' as title for 'Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior' question; both refer to the same candidate and resolve identically
Polymarket
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Predict
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Opinion
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often differ from traditional polling averages because traders price in real-money stakes and react to new information faster than pollsters can survey the public. While polls provide a snapshot of voter intent, this market reflects a dynamic consensus that incorporates betting behavior, news events, and perceived campaign momentum. The gap between the two can vary widely, especially in volatile political climates.
On Polymarket and Opinion, prices can diverge due to differences in user bases, liquidity, and market design. Polymarket and Opinion can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For example, one platform might attract more international traders who view the race differently than local participants on the other venue. Additionally, varying levels of trading volume can amplify small shifts in sentiment, leading to noticeable spreads such as 38.5 between the two platforms.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the election result is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final tally of valid votes will determine the winner, and all major prediction venues typically update their settlement once official results are announced and uncontested.
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