TOTAL VOLUME:

$146.7b

24H VOL:

$162,970,420

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,781,800,361

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,740,912,349

501,518

Markets across

37,286

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,933

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
polymarket
limitless

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Nov 3, 2025, 6:52 PM EST - Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$27,769,764
Volume 24h:
$105,918
131%
Liquidity:
$455,875
2%
Open interest:
$4,667,909N/A

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Limitless

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

6%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 6¢ buys you 1,667 shares | Odds: 6% Total Payout: $1,667 | Net Profit: $1,567 Multiplier: 16.67x | ROI: 1,567% APY not meaningful 70 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Trade
6%
1%
Yes 6¢No 95¢
1¢
$455,875
$27,769,764
0.38%
2%
N/A
2mo 1w 3d
active
limitless

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Trade
N/A
N/A
1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 1w 3d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
5.5%
Yes 6¢No 95¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1¢
Total markets: 2

Intro

This market tracks the likelihood of regime change in Iran before the end of 2026. Currently, the consensus probability of the Iranian regime falling before 2027 is 4.5%. This aggregate reflects predictions from Polymarket and Limitless, and will be resolved based on a consensus of credible reporting from major international news organizations and think tanks specializing in Iranian politics. Keep an eye on the political climate as we approach the resolution date estimate of January 1, 2027, to see if conditions suggest a fundamental shift in power within the Islamic Republic.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms define regime 'fall' identically, requiring a fundamental break in continuity and loss of de facto power by core Islamic Republic structures.Primary resolution logic: Consensus of credible reporting (e.g., major international news organizations, think tanks specializing in Iranian politics).

Core resolution logic:

  • The Islamic Republic’s core structures (Supreme Leader’s office, Guardian Council, IRGC control) must be dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced.
  • The regime must lose de facto power over a majority of the Iranian population.
  • Resolution requires a broad consensus of credible reporting.
  • Routine political events (elections, reforms, succession) do not qualify.
  • Internal coups preserving core structures do not qualify.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Partial Territorial Loss: Loss of territory or challenges from rebel groups do not trigger resolution unless the regime no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
  • Leadership Change: Succession of the Supreme Leader or other leadership changes that do not fundamentally alter the governing system will not resolve the market to 'Yes'.
  • Economic Collapse: Severe economic hardship alone is insufficient for resolution; it must accompany a loss of governing power by the core structures of the regime.
Timing: The market will resolve to 'Yes' if the conditions are met on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to 'No' after that date.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power. Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify. Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Limitless

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power. Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify. Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Limitless, this dashboard tracks the collective prediction of whether the Iranian regime will fall before Jan 1, 2027. Currently, the aggregated volume across both platforms is $27,769,764, with $104,126 traded in the last 24 hours. This reflects a consensus view derived from traders’ willingness to buy or sell contracts representing their beliefs about the likelihood of regime change. The Polymarket and Limitless markets are combined to provide a comprehensive view of the Iranian regime stability market, offering a weighted average of opinions.

Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional polling data. Polls capture stated preferences, while this market reflects what individuals are willing to *wager* on, potentially revealing more accurate underlying beliefs. Polling on sensitive topics like regime stability in Iran can be subject to social desirability bias, where respondents may not truthfully express their views. The current implied probability in this market, around 5.5%, may differ from publicly available polling data due to these factors, and the incentive structure of prediction markets.

Prices on Polymarket and Limitless for this market can diverge due to several factors. Polymarket and Limitless can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts a different user base with varying risk tolerances and information access, leading to differing interpretations of the same geopolitical events. Trading fees, liquidity, and the specific contract structures offered on each platform also contribute to price discrepancies. Furthermore, Polymarket may have different levels of regulatory scrutiny or market-making activity compared to Limitless, influencing how quickly information is incorporated into prices. These factors can cause temporary mispricings between the two venues.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on a determination of whether a fundamental shift in power has occurred within the Iranian government, indicating the fall of the existing regime. The outcome will be assessed using publicly available information from reputable news sources and expert analysis. This market’s resolution will reflect a widely accepted understanding of regime change in Iran, as reported by trusted sources.

Numerous events could significantly shift the odds in this market. Major protests within Iran, particularly if sustained and widespread, would likely increase the probability of regime change. Significant economic deterioration, such as a collapse of the Iranian Rial or widespread shortages, could also exert pressure. External factors, like a shift in US policy towards Iran or a military conflict involving Iran, would undoubtedly impact predictions. Internal power struggles within the ruling elite, or the unexpected death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, could also be catalysts. This market will react to any credible information suggesting an increased or decreased likelihood of the Iranian regime falling before Jan 1, 2027.