TOTAL VOLUME:

$142.3b

24H VOL:

$107,419,736

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,643,541,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,594,026,835

471,138

Markets across

35,775

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,926

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
polymarket
limitless

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM EST - Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$44,077,582
Volume 24h:
$51,177
20%
Liquidity:
$506,199
21%
Open interest:
$6,057,833N/A

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

all

2 markets

Limitless

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

2%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
limitless

Trade on Limitless

At 3¢ buys you 3,333 shares | Odds: 2% Total Payout: $3,333 | Net Profit: $3,233 Multiplier: 33.33x | ROI: 3,233% APY not meaningful 78 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
limitless

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Trade
2%
1%
Yes 2.3¢No 97.8¢
1.5¢
N/A
$11,421
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
polymarket

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Trade
2%
Yes 2.2¢No 97.9¢
0.1¢
$506,199
$44,066,161
0.12%
0.86%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
2.2%
Yes 2.3¢No 97.9¢
Avg: 0.8¢Max: 1.5¢
Total markets: 2

Description

This event group tracks whether China will initiate a military offensive to establish control over any portion of Taiwan (Republic of China) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Resolution requires either official confirmation from China, Taiwan, the UN, or a permanent UN Security Council member, or a consensus of credible reporting. Uninhabited islands do not qualify; only inhabited territory under ROC administration counts.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms apply identical resolution criteria, threshold definitions, source hierarchy, and temporal boundaries with no material divergence.Primary resolution logic: Official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; consensus of credible reporting serves as secondary resolution standard

Core resolution logic:

  • YES resolution requires China to commence a military offensive with intent to establish control over any inhabited portion of territory administered by the Republic of China (Taiwan)
  • Uninhabited islands do not qualify for YES resolution regardless of military action
  • Resolution window closes at December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; any offensive initiated after this timestamp does not trigger YES
  • Official confirmation from China, Taiwan, UN, or permanent UN Security Council members is the primary resolution source
  • Consensus of credible reporting may be used if official confirmation is unavailable or delayed
  • NO resolution occurs if no qualifying military offensive occurs by the deadline

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Uninhabited Island Exclusion: Military action targeting only uninhabited islands or territories not under ROC administration does not qualify for YES resolution, even if China establishes control
  • Intent Requirement: Military action must be explicitly intended to establish control; accidental border skirmishes or defensive responses do not qualify unless they constitute an offensive with control objectives
  • Source Hierarchy Conflict: If official sources conflict (e.g., China denies while Taiwan/UN confirm), consensus of credible reporting becomes the tiebreaker; markets should not resolve until clarity emerges
  • Partial Control Scenario: Establishment of control over any inhabited portion of ROC territory qualifies for YES; complete conquest is not required
  • Temporal Boundary: Offensive must commence (first military action) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; ongoing operations from prior years do not retroactively trigger YES if they began before the market creation date
Timing: Resolution occurs upon official confirmation or credible consensus reporting of a qualifying military offensive by China against inhabited ROC territory, or at market expiration (December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET) if no such offensive has occurredOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Limitless

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard tracks the aggregated predictions on whether China will invade Taiwan by the end of 2026, drawing data from multiple prediction market platforms. Currently, the Polymarket and Limitless markets combine for a total volume of $44,077,582, with $43,031 traded in the last 24 hours. The consensus view, as reflected by this aggregation, provides a unique perspective on potential geopolitical risks. The short_topic allows users to monitor the collective wisdom of the crowd regarding this critical international issue. This is a valuable resource for anyone following the China-Taiwan situation.

Prediction market odds often offer a different signal than traditional polling data. Polls capture stated preferences, which can be influenced by social desirability bias or a lack of deep understanding of the complexities involved. This market, however, reflects what people are willing to *stake* on an outcome, providing a stronger indication of actual beliefs. While polls might show public opinion on Taiwan’s defense capabilities, the price action here indicates the probability traders assign to a full-scale invasion. Discrepancies between prediction markets and polls can highlight areas where informed traders possess unique insights.

Prices on Polymarket and Limitless can diverge due to several factors. Each platform has its own user base, trading dynamics, and risk tolerance. Polymarket and Limitless can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Furthermore, differing liquidity levels can create temporary price discrepancies. Currently, Polymarket currently favors the outcome that China will invade Taiwan by the end of 2026 at 2.1%, while Limitless leans toward the outcome that China will not invade Taiwan by the end of 2026 at 2.3%. These differences reflect the unique perspectives and trading activity within each platform’s community.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on whether a full-scale military invasion of Taiwan by China has commenced by that date. The outcome will be determined by assessing publicly available information from reputable news sources, government statements, and expert analysis. The focus is on a definitive invasion, not smaller-scale military actions or heightened tensions. The outcome will be assessed based on widely accepted definitions of an invasion.

Several events could significantly impact this market. Major shifts in Chinese or Taiwanese political rhetoric, large-scale military exercises in the Taiwan Strait, or changes in the geopolitical alignment of key international actors like the United States and Japan would all be closely watched. Unexpected economic developments in China, or a significant internal crisis, could also alter the perceived likelihood of an invasion. Any credible reports of imminent military action, or conversely, substantial progress in diplomatic talks, would likely cause substantial price movement in this market.