TOTAL VOLUME:
$140.7b
24H VOL:
$180,834,902
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,543,053,589
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,611,295,620
421,525
Markets across
33,132
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,837
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
#Regulation
Analysis, predictions, and breakdowns from across the markets.
What Is Kalshi and How Does It Work?
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange where you trade Yes/No contracts on real-world events, funded by bank, card, wire, or crypto, with fees and pricing that work nothing like a sportsbook's.
Jared Polites · Oct 11
Prediction Market Terms of Service: What to Check Before You Sign Up
Withdrawal conditions, account freezes, dispute resolution, and force majeure outcomes differ sharply across Kalshi, Polymarket, Limitless, Predict.Fun, and Opinion.
Jared Polites · Oct 4
Prediction Markets vs Betting Exchanges: What Actually Separates Them
Betfair matches bettors against each other under a UK gambling license. Kalshi trades CFTC-regulated event contracts.
Jared Polites · Oct 3
Is My Money Safe on Prediction Markets? Custody Explained Across Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless, Predict.Fun, and Opinion
Kalshi and Polymarket US hold your cash in CFTC-segregated accounts, a real protection, but not an insurance guarantee.
Jared Polites · Oct 1
Prediction Market Arbitrage: Why the Price Gap Rarely Pays Out
A Kalshi-Polymarket price gap looks like free money until fees, KYC delays, withdrawal friction, and mismatched settlement rules eat most of it before the trade clears.
Jared Polites · Sep 29
Is Polymarket Legit? What the Data and the Regulatory Record Actually Show (2026)
Yes, Polymarket is a legitimate, well-funded exchange that pays out onchain. Here's the full record, good and bad.
Jared Polites · Sep 25
Hedge Funds Using Prediction Markets: How Event Contracts Hedge Risk Options Can't Touch
Options and swaps hedge a price move. A Kalshi event contract hedges the ruling or decision that caused it, and that difference is turning event contracts into a real institutional hedge.
Jared Polites · Sep 21
Prediction Market Position Limits: Why You Can't Bet Unlimited Size
Kalshi enforces real, CFTC-filed position limits, some as low as $25,000. Polymarket's international platform and its separate US exchange handle size two different ways.
Jared Polites · Sep 20
Prediction Market KYC Requirements: What ID You Need on Each Platform
Kalshi requires full ID verification to fund an account. Polymarket, Limitless, Predict.Fun, and Opinion only need a connected crypto wallet, with Polymarket's own US arm as the one exception.
Jared Polites · Sep 17
US Regulated Prediction Markets: Who's In, Who's Not, and Where the Lines Are Blurring
IBKR, Robinhood, Gemini, DraftKings, and FanDuel all built or bought regulated exchanges of their own this year, while federal courts split on whether any of it preempts state law.
Jared Polites · Sep 13
Prediction Market Wash Trading: How to Spot Fake Volume
Wash trading is a trader taking both sides of a contract to fake volume with zero real risk. Here's how it works, why on-chain platforms are more exposed, and the signals that give it away.
Jared Polites · Sep 12
Are Prediction Market Winnings Taxable? Yes, Even Without a 1099
Kalshi, Polymarket, Limitless, Predict.Fun, and Opinion all create the same tax obligation on trading gains, and none of them, Kalshi included, sends you a form that covers it.
Jared Polites · Sep 7
Prediction Markets vs Sportsbooks: What Actually Changes When You Trade an Event Contract
Here's exactly what changes when you trade a Kalshi or Polymarket event contract instead of betting a sportsbook line.
Jared Polites · Aug 28
How to Spot a Manipulated Prediction Market Before You Trust the Price
Wash trading, thin-book spikes, resolution clustering, and self-dealing are the four patterns that give away a manipulated price. Here's how to check for each one.
Jared Polites · Aug 26
Prediction Markets Regulation Outside the US: A Global Map
The CFTC model is the exception, not the template. More than 30 jurisdictions now restrict access to at least one major platform, and the UK, EU, and Asia each classify event contracts differently.
Jared Polites · Aug 25
How to Use Polymarket in the US (Legal Status, Setup, and a Safer Path)
Polymarket now runs a CFTC-regulated US product through its QCX exchange. Here's how it actually works, who's eligible, and when Kalshi is the better fit instead.
Jared Polites · Aug 14