CLARITY Act Odds: What Prediction Markets Say About the Crypto Bill

TL;DR

• The Senate held a procedural vote on the CLARITY Act in September 2026 and it failed 49-50, short of the 60 votes needed to move forward. As of mid-October I found no report of a new vote.
• American Banker reported the vote likely ends the push for crypto market structure legislation in this Congress, so the bill would have to start over next year.
• A CLARITY Act contract prices one question, usually whether the bill becomes law by a set date, and the price is the market's implied probability.
• Polymarket and Kalshi can price the same bill a few points apart, and each platform decides which CLARITY Act contracts it lists. Check every board before comparing.

Looking up CLARITY Act Polymarket odds and wondering what the number means after the Senate vote? A procedural vote failing 49-50 sounds final, but it does not formally kill the bill, and the contracts price a very specific question.

This guide shows what the bill does, where it stands today, and how to read a legislation contract before you quote one. The prices come from live prediction market data across the platforms PredictionHero tracks, so they reflect traders' positions as they stand.

What Does the CLARITY Act Actually Do?

The CLARITY Act is a crypto market structure bill that would split oversight of digital assets between two regulators. According to the Congressional Research Service, the House version would give the CFTC exclusive regulatory jurisdiction over transactions in digital commodities, including spot markets for registered entities.

The SEC would keep some oversight of primary-market crypto sales, with a limited exemption from registration for fundraising. Stablecoins and securities would be excluded from the definition of a digital commodity.

The House passed the bill in July 2025. The September vote that stalled it was in the Senate.

Where Does the CLARITY Act Stand After the Senate Vote?

It stalled on a procedural vote. The Senate voted 49-50 on September 15, 2026, on a motion that would have opened floor time for debate, and the bill needs 60 votes to move forward. Democratic negotiators voted no, as did Republican Senators Hawley, Collins and Moran. Senator Tillis also voted no through a procedural motion, which American Banker says means Republicans could bring the package back, though that would be harder.

Stalled is not the same as dead. GovInfo's last recorded action on the bill is June 1, 2026, when the Senate version was reported with an amendment. But American Banker reported that the vote most likely ends market structure legislation in this Congress, and lawmakers would have to start over next Congress, when Democrats may control one or both chambers.

The next test is the November 3 midterms, followed by the lame-duck session. I found no report of a new vote since September 15.

What Do CLARITY Act Odds Look Like on Prediction Markets?

A CLARITY Act contract usually asks whether the bill is signed into law by a certain date. Each outcome trades between $0 and $1, and the price is the market's implied probability.

Right now Polymarket prices a signed-into-law outcome at 2.6%-1, with $24.5m0% traded on that market.

A low price after a failed vote does not mean the market thinks the bill is impossible. It means the market gives the bill a small chance of clearing every remaining step before the contract's deadline.

What Does CLARITY Act Polymarket Pricing Show Compared With the Other Platforms?

CLARITY Act Polymarket pricing shows one crowd's view of the same bill. Polymarket runs its own order book and trader base, so its price can sit a few points away from the same question elsewhere.

Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange and prices the same question at 5.5%0 to be passed before 2027.

A gap between the two is normal. It does not mean one platform is wrong. Each venue has its own traders and liquidity, and its own settlement rules. That is the subject of our piece on why odds disagree across platforms.

Opinion is built around macro contracts, so its board is worth a look for the same bill. Limitless and Predict.Fun round out the five platforms PredictionHero tracks.

Which CLARITY Act contracts each one lists changes over time, so check each board directly. PredictionHero lines up prediction market data from all five platforms on one screen, so the spread is visible without opening five tabs.

How Should You Read a Legislation Contract?

Run through five checks, in this order.

1. The deadline. A contract that asks about "this year" loses time every week. A price can fall just because the calendar runs out, with no news at all.
2. The step it measures. A cloture vote, a Senate passage vote and a signature are three different events. A failed procedural vote is not the same as a bill being voted down.
3. The definition. Read what counts as "signed into law" and which version of the bill the contract tracks.
4. Depth. Check volume and spread alongside the last trade. A thin market is closer to a few opinions than a consensus. Our look at how long-dated odds move explains why far-off contracts can be slow to reprice.
5. A second platform. One venue can lag. Two venues that agree are harder to dismiss.

For the full routine, see how to read the rules before you rely on a price.

What Could Move the CLARITY Act Odds From Here?

Four things can move the price. A Senate re-vote would be the biggest. A new deal on the issues that split the vote would change how likely one is.

The midterm results would change who controls the chambers next year. The lame-duck session is the last window in this Congress.

Any of those can reprice a contract quickly. News that makes the next step more likely lifts the price, and silence pulls it down as the calendar runs out.

Regulators keep working without a statute. Our overview of regulation covers how the CFTC acts when Congress has not.

Sources

• American Banker. "Crypto market structure bill fails in Senate vote, 49-50." americanbanker.com
• CNBC. "Senate cloture vote on Clarity Act fails, dealing regulatory blow to crypto industry." September 15, 2026. cnbc.com
• Congressional Research Service. "Crypto Legislation: An Overview of H.R. 3633, the CLARITY Act." Insight IN12583. everycrsreport.com
• GovInfo. "H.R. 3633, Reported in Senate." Last action June 1, 2026. govinfo.gov
• EY. "House passes crypto market structure framework after resolving standoff on the floor." July 18, 2025. taxnews.ey.com

PredictionHero aggregates publicly available prediction market data for informational purposes only. This is not financial or legal advice. Prediction markets may not be available in all jurisdictions, and legislative status can change; verify the current status of the bill before relying on it.