TOTAL VOLUME:
$149.1b
24H VOL:
$286,558,852
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,818,747,506
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,918,431,009
455,042
Markets across
33,855
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,677
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
#Education
Analysis, predictions, and breakdowns from across the markets.
Prediction Market Data: Where to Get It, What It Costs and How to Use It
Where to find prediction market data, from platform APIs to the Polymarket leaderboard, what each source costs, and how to use it without being misled.
Jared Polites · Oct 22
Prediction Market Glossary: 100 Terms Explained
Resolution, open interest, spread, DCM, oracle and 95 more terms, defined in plain English so you can read any prediction market with confidence.
Jared Polites · Oct 18
Who Founded Polymarket? The Story and the CEO Behind the Largest Crypto Prediction Market
Shayne Coplan founded Polymarket in 2020 and still runs it as CEO. Here's his story, how the company grew, and who backs it today.
Jared Polites · Oct 17
Who Owns Kalshi? Founders, CEO, and Backers Explained
Kalshi is privately held by cofounders Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara and a group of venture backers. Here's who owns what, and who runs it.
Jared Polites · Oct 14
Can You Buy Kalshi Stock? Is Kalshi Publicly Traded? (2026)
No, Kalshi doesn't have a stock to buy. Here's its real valuation timeline, from $2 billion to a reported $40 billion, and what its CEO has said about an IPO.
Jared Polites · Oct 14
What Is Polymarket and How Does It Work?
Polymarket is the largest crypto-native prediction market, not the largest overall anymore; Kalshi has led raw trading volume since spring 2026. Find out more about Polymarket below.
Jared Polites · Oct 13
What Is Kalshi and How Does It Work?
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange where you trade Yes/No contracts on real-world events, funded by bank, card, wire, or crypto, with fees and pricing that work nothing like a sportsbook's.
Jared Polites · Oct 11
Do Prediction Markets Affect the Stock Market?
Prediction market odds and stock prices often move together, but that's usually because both are reacting to the same news at the same moment, not because one is driving the other.
Jared Polites · Oct 5
How Are Prediction Market Odds Set? The First Price on a New Contract
A new contract's first price isn't a forecast. It's a market maker's opening quote, seeded from a borrowed reference point and however much capital gets risked.
Jared Polites · Oct 2
How to Cite Prediction Market Data in Research (Without Getting the Stats Wrong)
A prediction market price is a timestamped snapshot of belief, not a probability with a confidence interval.
Jared Polites · Sep 28
Prediction Market Futures Contracts: How Long-Dated Odds Actually Move
A contract that resolves in six months doesn't behave like one that resolves tonight. Here's how the calendar, capital lockup, and thin order books shape long-dated odds.
Jared Polites · Sep 27
What Happens When a Prediction Market Event Gets Cancelled
A cancelled or postponed event doesn't reliably mean a refund: Kalshi settles at the last traded price, Polymarket's rare fallback is a 50/50 split.
Jared Polites · Sep 24
Oscars Prediction Market Odds: How Awards-Season Contracts Actually Move
Oscar contracts jump in fixed steps tied to guild wins and nomination day, not gradual drift, because Academy voters overlap directly with the guilds that vote weeks earlier.
Jared Polites · Sep 23
Favorite-Longshot Bias in Prediction Markets: Why Longshots Are Overpriced
Longshot contracts routinely cost more than their real odds justify. Here's the order-book mechanic that inflates them, and how to correct for it.
Jared Polites · Sep 22
What Is Limitless Exchange? A Look Inside the On-Chain Prediction Market
Limitless is a non-custodial prediction market on Base where every contract is minted, priced, and settled by smart contract instead of a company's internal ledger.
Jared Polites · Sep 19
What Is Opinion (Opinion.Trade)? Inside the AI-Oracle Prediction Market
Opinion (opinion.trade) is a BNB Chain prediction market that resolves most of its contracts through an AI system called Opinion AI, backed by a token-staked dispute window.
Jared Polites · Sep 18
Corporate Event Prediction Markets: Earnings, CEOs, and Product Launches
Earnings prints, CEO exits, and product launches all trade as prediction market contracts, but the company sets the clock, not the news cycle.
Jared Polites · Sep 16
Correlated Prediction Markets: How Related Contracts Constrain Each Other's Prices
A primary contract at 40 cents and a general contract at 45 cents for the same candidate can't both be right. The arithmetic behind correlated contracts on five prediction market platforms.
Jared Polites · Sep 15
Prediction Market Wash Trading: How to Spot Fake Volume
Wash trading is a trader taking both sides of a contract to fake volume with zero real risk. Here's how it works, why on-chain platforms are more exposed, and the signals that give it away.
Jared Polites · Sep 12
How to Read Prediction Market Rules Before You Trust the Price
Two platforms can price the same event five points apart, not because traders disagree, but because the contracts ask slightly different questions. Read the wording before you read the price.
Jared Polites · Sep 10
Prediction Market Overround: Why the Odds Don't Add Up to 100%
A three-candidate market pricing at 105 cents isn't broken. Here's what that extra 5 cents actually means and why sportsbook vig is a different animal.
Jared Polites · Sep 6
Weather Prediction Markets: How Temperature, Snowfall, and Hurricane Contracts Get Priced
Temperature, snowfall, and hurricane contracts resolve against NOAA and National Weather Service data, not a forecaster's opinion. Here's how the brackets, splits, and pricing actually work.
Jared Polites · Aug 26
How to Spot a Manipulated Prediction Market Before You Trust the Price
Wash trading, thin-book spikes, resolution clustering, and self-dealing are the four patterns that give away a manipulated price. Here's how to check for each one.
Jared Polites · Aug 26
Recurring Prediction Market Contracts: How to Read a Chain, Not a Single Bet
A recurring contract is not one market. It's a series that resets every cycle, and reading only the latest instance means missing the trend entirely.
Jared Polites · Aug 24
What Does Prediction Market Volume Actually Mean?
Volume is the total traded over time. Open interest is what's still at stake right now. Liquidity is what you can trade this instant, and most headlines quietly blur all three into one number.
Jared Polites · Aug 5
How Accurate Are Prediction Markets? What the Resolved-Market Data Shows
Calibration, not who-won, is the real test of prediction market accuracy. Here's what large samples of resolved contracts actually show, and where the record breaks down.
Jared Polites · Jul 26
What Are Prediction Markets? How They Actually Work
Prediction markets price real-world events the way markets price stocks. See how they work, and compare live odds across all 5 major platforms.
Jared Polites · Jul 10
How Long Does It Take for Prediction Markets to Resolve?
Resolution speed depends on governance, not software. Kalshi confirmed a real Fed decision in eight minutes; Polymarket's identical contract took two hours because its dispute window ran uncontested.
Jared Polites · Aug 5