TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
#Polymarket
Analysis, predictions, and breakdowns from across the markets.
Prediction Market Futures Contracts: How Long-Dated Odds Actually Move
A contract that resolves in six months doesn't behave like one that resolves tonight. Here's how the calendar, capital lockup, and thin order books shape long-dated odds.
Jared Polites · Sep 27
How to Track Prediction Market Prices Without Refreshing Five Tabs
Tracking a market means watching last price, mid price, volume, and timestamp together, across every platform that lists it. Here's what each of the five major platforms actually shows you.
Jared Polites · Sep 26
Is Polymarket Legit? What the Data and the Regulatory Record Actually Show (2026)
Yes, Polymarket is a legitimate, well-funded exchange that pays out onchain. Here's the full record, good and bad.
Jared Polites · Sep 25
What Happens When a Prediction Market Event Gets Cancelled
A cancelled or postponed event doesn't reliably mean a refund: Kalshi settles at the last traded price, Polymarket's rare fallback is a 50/50 split.
Jared Polites · Sep 24
Oscars Prediction Market Odds: How Awards-Season Contracts Actually Move
Oscar contracts jump in fixed steps tied to guild wins and nomination day, not gradual drift, because Academy voters overlap directly with the guilds that vote weeks earlier.
Jared Polites · Sep 23
Hedge Funds Using Prediction Markets: How Event Contracts Hedge Risk Options Can't Touch
Options and swaps hedge a price move. A Kalshi event contract hedges the ruling or decision that caused it, and that difference is turning event contracts into a real institutional hedge.
Jared Polites · Sep 21
Prediction Market Position Limits: Why You Can't Bet Unlimited Size
Kalshi enforces real, CFTC-filed position limits, some as low as $25,000. Polymarket's international platform and its separate US exchange handle size two different ways.
Jared Polites · Sep 20
What Is Opinion (Opinion.Trade)? Inside the AI-Oracle Prediction Market
Opinion (opinion.trade) is a BNB Chain prediction market that resolves most of its contracts through an AI system called Opinion AI, backed by a token-staked dispute window.
Jared Polites · Sep 18
Prediction Market KYC Requirements: What ID You Need on Each Platform
Kalshi requires full ID verification to fund an account. Polymarket, Limitless, Predict.Fun, and Opinion only need a connected crypto wallet, with Polymarket's own US arm as the one exception.
Jared Polites · Sep 17
Corporate Event Prediction Markets: Earnings, CEOs, and Product Launches
Earnings prints, CEO exits, and product launches all trade as prediction market contracts, but the company sets the clock, not the news cycle.
Jared Polites · Sep 16
Using Prediction Markets for Journalism: A Reporting Workflow
A field guide for reporters: how to monitor prediction markets as a beat, judge a real move from noise, and vet a number before it goes in a story.
Jared Polites · Sep 14
US Regulated Prediction Markets: Who's In, Who's Not, and Where the Lines Are Blurring
IBKR, Robinhood, Gemini, DraftKings, and FanDuel all built or bought regulated exchanges of their own this year, while federal courts split on whether any of it preempts state law.
Jared Polites · Sep 13
Prediction Market Liquidity Comparison: Why Some Platforms Are Structurally Deeper
Every platform can quote a price. Not all of them can back it once real size hits the book. Here's what actually determines whether liquidity holds, platform by platform.
Jared Polites · Sep 11
How to Read Prediction Market Rules Before You Trust the Price
Two platforms can price the same event five points apart, not because traders disagree, but because the contracts ask slightly different questions. Read the wording before you read the price.
Jared Polites · Sep 10
How to Backtest a Prediction Market Strategy (Without Fooling Yourself)
A backtest is only as good as the price data underneath it: survivorship bias, thin liquidity, and too few independent events can each quietly inflate your results.
Jared Polites · Sep 8
What Is a Prediction Market Whale? How to Spot Large Positions and Read Smart Money Claims
Position size alone proves nothing. Here's how to separate real information from ordinary risk-taking and wash trading, and why some platforms let you check a wallet's history while others don't.
Jared Polites · Sep 4
ECB, BoE, and BoJ Rate Decisions: What Prediction Markets Show
Kalshi and Polymarket price the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan the same way they price the Fed.
Jared Polites · Aug 30
Prediction Markets Regulation Outside the US: A Global Map
The CFTC model is the exception, not the template. More than 30 jurisdictions now restrict access to at least one major platform, and the UK, EU, and Asia each classify event contracts differently.
Jared Polites · Aug 25
Recurring Prediction Market Contracts: How to Read a Chain, Not a Single Bet
A recurring contract is not one market. It's a series that resets every cycle, and reading only the latest instance means missing the trend entirely.
Jared Polites · Aug 24
Best Prediction Markets by Category: Where to Look for Politics, Sports, Crypto, and More
There's no single best prediction market. Kalshi, Polymarket, Limitless, Predict.Fun, and Opinion were each built for a different kind of question.
Jared Polites · Aug 22
Why Prediction Market Odds Disagree Across Platforms (And How to Read the Gap)
A price gap between Polymarket and Kalshi isn't a pricing error. Find out what it really represents.
Jared Polites · Aug 19
How Do Prediction Market Fees Actually Work?
Kalshi, Polymarket, Predict.Fun, and Opinion now all charge takers a fee that peaks on a 50-cent contract and fades toward the extremes.
Jared Polites · Aug 18
How to Use Polymarket in the US (Legal Status, Setup, and a Safer Path)
Polymarket now runs a CFTC-regulated US product through its QCX exchange. Here's how it actually works, who's eligible, and when Kalshi is the better fit instead.
Jared Polites · Aug 14
Are Prediction Markets Legal? The CFTC vs. States (2026)
Prediction markets are legal for contracts structured as CFTC-regulated event contracts but the question is open for sports-outcome contracts according to state gambling law.
Jared Polites · Aug 10
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Is Right for You?
Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and dollar-funded. Polymarket runs on USDC with deeper global liquidity and now has its own regulated US arm too. Compare live.
Jared Polites · Jul 30
How Long Does It Take for Prediction Markets to Resolve?
Resolution speed depends on governance, not software. Kalshi confirmed a real Fed decision in eight minutes; Polymarket's identical contract took two hours because its dispute window ran uncontested.
Jared Polites · Aug 5