NHL MVP Odds: Early-Season Market Prices

TL;DR

• The Hart Trophy, the NHL's MVP award, is voted on by the Professional Hockey Writers' Association after the season ends. Last season's vote was decided by 10 points.
• NHL MVP odds price one named player winning the Hart, and the price is the market's implied probability. The 2026-27 season opened September 29 and runs to April 10, 2027, so the contract stays open for months.
• Early-season prediction market data rests on a small number of games, so prices move quickly with a hot streak or an injury.
• Polymarket and Kalshi can price the same candidate a few points apart, and each platform decides which Hart contracts it lists. Check every board before comparing.

Looking up NHL MVP odds this early in the season? Each price is a probability for an award that will not be handed out until next June, after 84 games per team.

That makes the number useful and noisy at once. This page covers what the contract measures, why the Hart vote is tight, and how to read an early price.

What Do NHL MVP Odds Actually Measure?

NHL MVP odds measure the chance that one named player wins the Hart Trophy. The top-priced candidate is currently 54.8% on Polymarket, with $46.8k traded on that market.

Each outcome trades between $0 and $1, and the price is the market's implied probability. A candidate at $0.30 means the market gives that player a 30% chance.

The Hart goes to the player judged most valuable to his team. The Professional Hockey Writers' Association picks the winner, so the contract prices what a panel of writers will decide, not the league leader in any one statistic.

Why Is the Hart Vote So Tight?

Last season's vote was close. Nikita Kucherov won the 2025-26 Hart with 1,436 points and 72 first-place votes, according to the NHL. Connor McDavid finished second with 1,426 points, 10 behind, and Nathan MacKinnon was third with 1,297.

The ballot makes that kind of finish possible. 198 writers ranked five players each on a 10-7-5-3-1 points scale, so a player can win without taking the most first-place votes. A second-place finish on many ballots counts.

For a market, that means a close race stays close. A small change in how writers view a season can swing the result.

The vote is also not limited to skaters. Goaltender Connor Hellebuyck won the Hart for 2024-25, according to NHL.com, so the field is wider than the scoring leaders.

Why Are Early-Season NHL MVP Odds Noisy?

The 2026-27 season opened September 29 and runs through April 10, 2027, so a price today covers most of a long schedule. A few weeks of games is a small sample.

A hot streak or a quiet week can move an early price a lot, and an injury can move it more. A player who is out for a stretch gives up points and, later, ballot position.

The result is not announced until after the season. Last season's Hart was announced June 11, 2026. Our guide to how long-dated odds move explains why a far-off contract can be slow to reprice and jumpy when news lands.

What Do NHL MVP Odds Show Across Platforms?

They show the same race through different crowds. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange, and it prices the same candidate at 51%.

A gap between the two is normal. It does not mean one platform is wrong. Each venue has its own traders and liquidity, and its own settlement rules. That is the subject of our piece on why odds disagree across platforms.

Opinion, Limitless and Predict.Fun round out the five platforms PredictionHero tracks, and each runs its own board. Which Hart contracts each one lists changes over time, so check every board directly. PredictionHero lines up prediction market data from all five platforms on one screen, so the spread is visible without opening five tabs.

How Should You Read an Early-Season Hart Price?

Run through four checks, in this order.

1. Timestamp. Hart prices move with every hot week and injury report. A number from opening week can be stale by Thanksgiving.
2. The field. Long lists of names tend to overprice the longshots, which our guide to favorite-longshot bias explains. Read the top few prices and ignore the tail.
3. Depth and rules. Check volume and spread alongside the last trade, and read the rules for which season the contract covers. A thin market is closer to a few opinions than a consensus.
4. A second platform. One venue can lag. Two venues that agree are harder to dismiss.

A price is a probability, not a verdict. A candidate at 40% still misses about six times in ten.

Sources

• NHL. "Kucherov of Lightning wins Hart Trophy as NHL MVP." June 11, 2026. nhl.com
• NHL. "10 things to know about 2026-27 NHL regular season." nhl.com
• NHL. "2026-27 NHL season to start on Sept. 29 with Carolina-Florida, Toronto-Montreal." nhl.com
• NHL. "Hellebuyck of Jets wins Hart Trophy as NHL MVP." nhl.com

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