How to read NFL Rookie of the Year odds for both awards: who votes, how lopsided last season's results were, and what to check before you trust a rookie's price.

Jared Polites

Oct 25, 2026

PredictionHero article image: NFL Rookie of the Year odds.

TL;DR

NFL Rookie of the Year odds cover two separate awards, Offensive and Defensive, each voted on by a panel of 50 voters. Last season's winners took 41 and 40 of the 50 first-place votes.
A rookie award contract prices one named player winning, and the price is the market's implied probability. Prediction market data on these awards moves with every game, so a number is only as current as its timestamp.
Last season's results were lopsided, so a clear favorite can take most of the vote.
Polymarket and Kalshi can price the same rookie a few points apart, and each platform decides which rookie award contracts it lists. Check every board before comparing.

Searching for NFL Rookie of the Year odds this far into the season? The first thing to know is that "Rookie of the Year" is really two awards, one for offense and one for defense, and the market prices each on its own.

This guide covers who votes, what last season's results show, and how to read a rookie's price before the award is decided in February.

What Do NFL Rookie of the Year Odds Measure?

NFL Rookie of the Year odds measure the chance that one named rookie wins an award. The top-priced Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate is currently Fernando Mendoza with 7.4% on Polymarket.

Each outcome trades between $0 and $1, and the price is the market's implied probability. A rookie at $0.45 means the market gives that player a 45% chance.

The AP awards are decided by a panel of 50 voters. The contract prices what that panel will decide, not who leads the league's rookies in any single statistic.

How Lopsided Was Last Season's Vote?

Very. Panthers wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan won the 2025 AP Offensive Rookie of the Year with 41 of the 50 first-place votes, according to NFL.com. Saints quarterback Tyler Shough had 5, and the rest were split among a few others.

The Defensive award was nearly as decisive. Browns linebacker Carson Schwesinger took 40 of 50 first-place votes. Seahawks safety Nick Emmanwori had 7.

The winners were announced at NFL Honors in San Francisco in early February, after the season and the playoffs. That is why a price in October is a long-dated contract on a vote that is months away.

What Do NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Odds Show?

NFL defensive rookie of the year odds price one defender to win the award. The top-priced candidate is currently David Bailey at 30.8%.

The Defensive award is an AP award too, so the contract prices voters' judgment of a full season, not one statistic. The price reprices as a defender's case forms.

Offense and defense are separate fields, so a favorite for one award says nothing about the other.

What Do the Odds Look Like Across Platforms?

They show the same race through different crowds. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange, and it prices the same Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate at 8%.

A gap between the two is normal. It does not mean one platform is wrong. Each venue has its own traders and liquidity, and its own settlement rules. That is the subject of our piece on why odds disagree across platforms.

Opinion, Limitless and Predict.Fun round out the five platforms PredictionHero tracks, and each runs its own board. Which rookie contracts each one lists changes over time, so check every board directly. PredictionHero lines up prediction market data from all five platforms on one screen, so the spread is visible without opening five tabs.

How Should You Read a Rookie Award Price?

Run through five checks, in this order.

Timestamp. Rookie prices move with every game and injury report. A number from Sunday morning can be stale by Sunday night.
Which award. Offensive, Defensive and any other rookie award answer different questions. Read the contract's rules to see which one it resolves on. Other groups also name rookie awards, including a fan vote, so the name alone is not enough.
The field. Long lists of names tend to overprice the longshots, which our guide to favorite-longshot bias explains. Read the top few prices and ignore the tail.
Depth. Check volume and spread alongside the last trade. A thin market is closer to a few opinions than a consensus.
A second platform. One venue can lag. Two venues that agree are harder to dismiss.

Awards markets also move in steps when a vote or announcement lands. We cover that pattern in our piece on awards-season contracts.

They change throughout the day, so use the live prediction market data in this article rather than a number copied from another page. The market prices each rookie as a probability, and the live values show how it weighs the Offensive and Defensive races right now.

The AP awards are decided by a panel of 50 voters, each casting a first-place vote. Last season's Offensive winner took 41 of 50 first-place votes and the Defensive winner 40 of 50, according to NFL.com. Prediction markets price what that panel is likely to decide.

Panthers wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan won the 2025 AP Offensive Rookie of the Year, and Browns linebacker Carson Schwesinger won the Defensive award, according to NFL.com. Both were announced at NFL Honors in San Francisco in early February 2026, after the regular season and the playoffs, and both won by wide margins.

After the regular season and the playoffs. Last season's winners were announced at NFL Honors in early February, during Super Bowl week. The 2026 date is not set in anything I found, so a contract stays open for months, and you should check the league's schedule.

No single platform wins on every count. Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless, Predict.Fun and Opinion each run their own order book and trader base. Compare volume and spread on each board, read each platform's resolution rules, and treat agreement across platforms as a stronger signal than any one price.

Sources

NFL. "Panthers WR Tetairoa McMillan named 2025 AP NFL Offensive Rookie of Year." nfl.com
NFL. "Browns LB Carson Schwesinger named 2025 AP NFL Defensive Rookie of Year." nfl.com
NFL. "Tetairoa McMillan wins the 2025 AP Offensive Rookie of the Year at NFL Honors." nfl.com

PredictionHero aggregates publicly available prediction market data for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in all jurisdictions.

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