NFL Coach of the Year Odds: What the Markets Say

TL;DR

• NFL Coach of the Year odds price one named coach winning the AP award, and the price is the market's implied probability. The award is not decided until after the season, so a midseason price is a long-dated contract.
• Last season's vote was close. Patriots coach Mike Vrabel won with 302 points and 19 first-place votes, ahead of Jaguars coach Liam Coen at 239 points and 16.
• Prediction market data on this award moves with every result, so a number is only as current as its timestamp.
• Polymarket and Kalshi can price the same coach a few points apart, and each platform decides which Coach of the Year contracts it lists. Check every board before comparing.

Looking up NFL Coach of the Year odds halfway through the season? The award is voted on after the games are played, so every price today is a probability, not a leaderboard.

This guide covers how close last season's vote was, how to compare platforms, and what to check before you trust a coach's price.

What Do NFL Coach of the Year Odds Measure?

NFL Coach of the Year odds measure the chance that one named coach wins the AP award. At the time of writing, the top-priced candidate is currently John Harbaugh at 21.6%+1 on Polymarket, with $1.6k traded on that market.

Each outcome trades between $0 and $1, and the price is the market's implied probability. A coach at $0.25 means the market gives that coach a 25% chance.

The contract prices what a panel of voters will decide, not the best record in the league. A price keeps changing as results come in.

How Close Was Last Season's Coach of the Year Vote?

Close. Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel won the 2025 AP NFL Coach of the Year with 302 points and 19 first-place votes, according to NFL.com. Jaguars head coach Liam Coen finished second with 239 points and 16 first-place votes.

Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald, Bears coach Ben Johnson and 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan completed the top five. The winner was announced at NFL Honors in San Francisco ahead of Super Bowl LX.

Vrabel's Patriots went 14-3 in the regular season, a 10-win improvement over their 4-13 record the year before. A swing that large is easy to spot in the standings.

Compare that with last season's rookie awards, where the winners took 41 and 40 of the 50 first-place votes. Coach of the Year was much tighter, which means a favorite's price can be less certain.

What Do the Odds Look Like Across Platforms?

They show the same race through different crowds. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange, and it prices the same coach at 23%.

A gap between the two is normal. It does not mean one platform is wrong. Each venue has its own traders and liquidity, and its own settlement rules. That is the subject of our piece on why odds disagree across platforms.

Opinion, Limitless and Predict.Fun round out the five platforms PredictionHero tracks, and each runs its own board. Which Coach of the Year contracts each one lists changes over time, so check every board directly. PredictionHero lines up prediction market data from all five platforms on one screen, so the spread is visible without opening five tabs.

How Should You Read a Coach Award Price Midseason?

Run through five checks, in this order.

1. Timestamp. Coach prices move with every result. A number from Sunday morning can be stale by Sunday night.
2. The standings. A coach's price follows the team's record. Check where the team sits and how many games remain before you read the number.
3. The rules. Read the contract's rules for which award it resolves on, and what happens if a coach leaves a job before the season ends.
4. The field. Long lists of names tend to overprice the longshots, which our guide to favorite-longshot bias explains. Read the top few prices and ignore the tail.
5. A second platform. One venue can lag. Two venues that agree are harder to dismiss.

A price is a probability, not a verdict. A coach at 40% still misses about six times in ten.

Awards markets also move in steps when a vote or announcement lands. We cover that pattern in our piece on awards-season contracts.

Sources

• NFL. "Patriots HC Mike Vrabel named 2025 AP NFL Coach of Year." nfl.com
• NFL. "Tetairoa McMillan named 2025 AP NFL Offensive Rookie of Year." nfl.com
• NFL. "Carson Schwesinger named 2025 AP NFL Defensive Rookie of Year." nfl.com

PredictionHero aggregates publicly available prediction market data for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in all jurisdictions.