TOTAL VOLUME:
$152.4b
24H VOL:
$148,930,039
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,927,407,401
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,797,869,998
451,578
Markets across
40,662
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,308
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
What Is Manifold Markets? How It Works
Manifold Markets is a play-money prediction market where anyone can create a market. Here is how mana works, who resolves markets, and how it compares.
Jared Polites
TL;DR
- Manifold Markets is a play-money prediction market. Traders use a currency called mana that "cannot be converted to cash," so nothing you win can be withdrawn as dollars.
- Anyone can create a market on Manifold, and the creator resolves it. Moderators can overturn a resolution in exceptional cases.
- Manifold ran a real-money sweepstakes mode and ended it in early 2025. Its FAQ and About page still describe a play-money platform, plus prize drawings for real USDC.
- Manifold prices are prediction market data without real money behind them, so read them as one input next to real-money platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi.
Seen Manifold Markets in a search for prediction markets and wondered how it differs from Polymarket or Kalshi? The short answer is that nobody can trade real money on it, and that changes how much a Manifold price tells you.
This page covers how Manifold works, who resolves its markets, what happened to its real-money mode, and where it fits next to real-money platforms.
What Is Manifold Markets?
Manifold is a social prediction market where you can trade on anything. Manifold calls itself "the world's largest social prediction market," and its FAQ calls it a social prediction game. No purchase is required to join.
It was founded in December 2021 by Austin Chen and brothers James and Stephen Grugett, according to Wikipedia. Traders buy and sell shares in a market, and the price is the probability the crowd implies, the same basic idea as on any prediction market.
The difference is the currency. Manifold runs on mana, and every new user starts with M1000. Mana is play money. The FAQ says it cannot be converted to cash.
How Do Manifold Markets Work?
Anyone can create a market. Manifold supports Yes or No, multiple choice, numeric, poll and bounty questions. By default, the creator subsidises the market's liquidity pool with the creation fee, which gives early traders something to trade against.
Prices come from traders. Trades fill against limit orders first and then against an automated market maker. A market with more liquidity is harder to move, according to Manifold's FAQ. Our guide to what volume means explains how liquidity and volume differ on real-money platforms.
Whoever created the market resolves it. Manifold's FAQ says creators should set clear criteria and resolve on time, and that moderators can overturn a resolution in exceptional cases. Only moderators or staff can resolve a market to N/A, which cancels it and returns mana.
Is Manifold a Play-Money Prediction Market?
Yes. A play-money prediction market uses a virtual currency that cannot be withdrawn, and mana is exactly that. You can buy more mana, but Manifold says doing so is not necessary.
Manifold did try real-money settlement. On February 13, 2025 it announced it was bringing its sweepstakes mode to an end because it had not met usage goals. New sweepcash issuance stopped at once, and markets that closed after March 3 were resolved to their current probability.
Users could cash out or donate sweepcash until March 28 with a $25 minimum, and anything left converted to mana at 100 mana to 1 sweepcash. Some review sites still describe the sweepstakes as active. Manifold's own announcement is the source to trust.
Manifold's About page also describes prize drawings in which users can win real USDC, with free entry and a crypto wallet needed to receive prizes. That is a drawing, not a market you can trade for cash.
How Does Manifold Compare With Polymarket and Kalshi?
The core difference is what is at stake. On a real-money platform a price reflects traders putting dollars behind a view. On Manifold it reflects traders putting play money behind one.
| Manifold | Real-money platforms | |
|---|---|---|
| Currency | Mana, cannot be converted to cash | Dollars or dollar-pegged stablecoins |
| Who creates markets | Anyone | The platform |
| Who resolves | The market creator | The platform, under written rules |
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange, and Polymarket is the largest crypto-native platform.
Opinion, Limitless and Predict.Fun round out the five real-money platforms PredictionHero tracks. For a ranking of the real-money options, see our guide to the best prediction market apps.
What Is Manifold Good For, and What About Its Data?
Manifold is useful for questions real-money platforms do not list. Because anyone can create a market, it covers niche topics, and because nothing is at stake it is a low-pressure place to practice forecasting.
It also publishes an API. Manifold's documentation says most read endpoints need no authentication, with a rate limit of 500 requests per minute per IP, and it describes the API as in alpha. Commercial use of API data to train AI or machine learning models needs a data license.
If you are collecting prediction market data from several sources, see our guide to where to find prediction market data. A Manifold price can sit in that mix as a play-money signal, but it should not be treated like a real-money price. Our piece on how accurate prediction markets are covers what the evidence supports.
No. Manifold uses a play currency called mana that its FAQ says cannot be converted to cash. It ran a real-money sweepstakes mode and ended it in early 2025. Treat Manifold prices as prediction market data without real money behind them, and compare them with Polymarket or Kalshi.
Mana is Manifold's play-money currency. Every new user starts with M1000, and you can buy more, though Manifold says that is not necessary. Mana has no cash value and cannot be converted to cash, so it is only useful for trading inside Manifold's own markets.
The person who created the market resolves it, and Manifold's FAQ asks creators to set clear criteria and resolve on time. Moderators can overturn a resolution in exceptional cases, and only moderators or staff can resolve a market to N/A, which cancels it and returns mana to traders.
According to Wikipedia, Manifold was founded in December 2021 by Austin Chen and brothers James and Stephen Grugett. Manifold describes itself as the world's largest social prediction market, which is its own claim and not an independent ranking. Its site is copyrighted to Manifold Markets, Inc.
They do different jobs. Manifold is free play-money practice with markets on almost any topic, while Polymarket and Kalshi put real money behind prices. Pick Manifold to practice forecasting and the real-money platforms for prices backed by dollars, and check each platform's rules.
Sources
- Manifold. "FAQ." docs.manifold.markets
- Manifold. "About." manifold.markets
- Manifold. "Focusing on Mana, Bringing Sweepstakes to an End." February 13, 2025. news.manifold.markets
- Manifold. "API documentation." docs.manifold.markets
- Wikipedia. "Manifold Markets." en.wikipedia.org
PredictionHero aggregates publicly available prediction market data for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in all jurisdictions.
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