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#World Cup 2026

Analysis, predictions, and breakdowns from across the markets.

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Line chart titled "The favorite flipped" showing France overtaking Spain in 2026 World Cup winner odds during Week 1.
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#World Cup 2026

World Cup 2026 Week 1 Recap: What the Markets Got Wrong (and Right)

France overtook Spain, the USA won its group, and Messi tied a record. How five prediction markets repriced after Week 1.

Jared P headshot

Jared Polites · Jun 20

A hand holding the FIFA World Cup trophy aloft against a clear blue sky

World Cup 2026 Winner Odds: What Prediction Markets Are Saying

France and Spain are the co-favorites, but no team is above 18%. Here's what five prediction markets are currently pricing as the most likely winner — and where they disagree.

Jun 11