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Will a tropical cyclone form in either the Pacific or Central Pacific basins by August 14?
polymarket

Will a tropical cyclone form in either the Pacific or Central Pacific basins by August 14?

Volume:
$904

Will a tropical cyclone form in either the Pacific or Central Pacific basins by August 14?

 - Polymarket

Will a tropical cyclone form in either the Pacific or Central Pacific basins by August 14? - Polymarket

1W

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·

Resolved Aug 13, 2026

Closed: Aug 13, 7:33 AM EST

polymarket

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polymarket

Will a tropical cyclone form in either the Pacific or Central Pacific basins by August 14?

View
100%
4%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
4.9¢
N/A
$904
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) designates a tropical cyclone, a tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane, in the Pacific basin or the Central Pacific basin at any time between market creation and August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" basins are the areas covered by the NHC's "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" Tropical Weather Outlooks at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. As of the launch of this market, the NHC reports no active tropical cyclones in either basin. The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), including its tropical cyclone advisories, public advisories, and Tropical Weather Outlooks for the Pacific and Central Pacific basins. If there is a potential tropical cyclone that has not yet been classified by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until August 15, 12:00 PM ET to determine whether a classification was made prior to midnight.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) designates a tropical cyclone, a tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane, in the Pacific basin or the Central Pacific basin at any time between market creation and August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" basins are the areas covered by the NHC's "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" Tropical Weather Outlooks at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. As of the launch of this market, the NHC reports no active tropical cyclones in either basin. The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), including its tropical cyclone advisories, public advisories, and Tropical Weather Outlooks for the Pacific and Central Pacific basins. If there is a potential tropical cyclone that has not yet been classified by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until August 15, 12:00 PM ET to determine whether a classification was made prior to midnight.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the tropical cyclone formation market dashboard tracks real-time odds and price history for the likelihood of a tropical cyclone forming in the Pacific or Central Pacific basins by a specific date. It also displays 24-hour volume of $54 and shows how trader sentiment is shifting as new weather data emerges.

This market resolves around Aug 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the formation of a tropical cyclone in either the Pacific or Central Pacific basins is verifiable from credible public reporting. No further interpretation is needed — only whether such a system formed by the date.

Several weather and atmospheric developments could shift this market before Aug 15, 2026. Key signals include sudden rises in sea surface temperatures across the Pacific, reductions in vertical wind shear that favor storm organization, or the emergence of a tropical disturbance from monsoon troughs. Conversely, strong upper-level winds or dry air intrusion could suppress development and push probabilities lower. Government bulletins from agencies tracking Pacific cyclones, along with real-time satellite imagery, will heavily influence trader decisions as the August 14 deadline approaches.