TOTAL VOLUME:

$142.4b

24H VOL:

$104,871,197

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,643,541,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,592,701,755

469,827

Markets across

35,657

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,899

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Science and Technology
Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...?
polymarket
kalshi

Will a Gemini Pro model be released?

Total volume:
$1,770,585
Volume 24h:
$94,218
2%
Liquidity:
$8,979
86%
Open interest:
$45,782
23%

December 31

 - Polymarket

December 31 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 15, 2027

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by December 31, 2026?

37%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 39¢ buys you 256 shares | Odds: 37% Total Payout: $256 | Net Profit: $156 Multiplier: 2.56x | ROI: 156% High Projected APY: 8,096% Low liquidity 78 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

December 31

Trade
37%
1%
Yes 39¢No 66¢
5¢
$576
$5,891
2%
54%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
polymarket

November 30

Trade
28%
2%
Yes 30¢No 75¢
5¢
$1,044
$7,285
11%
58%
N/A
1mo 2w 3d
active
kalshi

Before Dec 1, 2026

Trade
23%
6%
Yes 23¢No 78¢
1¢
N/A
$11,457
5%
148%
$3,983
3mo 2d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
24.7%
Yes 26.5¢No 76.5¢
Avg: 3¢Max: 5¢
kalshi

Before Nov 16, 2026

Trade
16%
1%
Yes 20¢No 85¢
5¢
N/A
$8,596
1%
35%
$2,776
3mo 2d
active
polymarket

October 31

Trade
8%
1%
Yes 8¢No 93¢
1¢
$4,406
$169,182
0.4%
14%
N/A
2w 2d 23h
active
kalshi

Before Nov 1, 2026

Trade
6%
Yes 6¢No 96¢
2¢
N/A
$31,545
8%
23%
$5,744
3mo 2d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
7.3%
Yes 7¢No 94.5¢
Avg: 1.5¢Max: 2¢
polymarket

October 23

Trade
4%
Yes 5.4¢No 97.6¢
3¢
$1,694
$15,096
0.29%
33%
N/A
1w 1d 23h
active
kalshi

Before Oct 16, 2026

Trade
1%
6%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$45,388
41%
65%
$13,032
3mo 2d
active
polymarket

October 15

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 99.8¢
0.8¢
$1,259
$47,285
0.88%
16%
N/A
23h 22m
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.8%
Yes 1¢No 99.9¢
Avg: 0.9¢Max: 1¢
polymarket

August 31

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$347,192
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

August 14

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$245,975
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

September 30

View
0%
12%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$207,140
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Before Oct 1, 2026

View
0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$24,217
N/A
N/A
$15,870
3mo 2d
No
polymarket

August 7

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$148,806
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

August 21

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$127,354
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

July 31

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$92,465
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

June 30

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$57,277
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 15

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$21,672
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

June 26

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$19,666
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

July 30

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$18,844
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

July 17

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$18,484
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

July 24

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$18,332
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

July 10

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$18,236
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

June 12

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$16,537
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

June 19

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,679
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 33

Intro

This market tracks the release date of the next Google Gemini Pro model to the general public. Currently, the consensus probability is 34.5% that it will be released by December 31, 2026, with a 26% probability it will be released by November 30, 2026. This aggregated view combines data from Polymarket and Kalshi, and will resolve based on official information from Google. Keep an eye on Google’s announcements regarding model availability, as the market is scheduled to resolve around January 15, 2027, representing the end of the potential release window.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The platforms have different final resolution dates, creating a divergence in potential outcomes.Hero tip: Be mindful of the differing timelines when trading these markets. A release in late November or December will have different impacts on Polymarket versus Kalshi.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Polymarket offers a series of weekly 'Yes/No' markets extending to October 31, 2026. Resolution depends on a 'Pro' model release before each specific date. The latest date is October 31, 2026.
  • Kalshi: Kalshi offers markets resolving 'Yes' if the next Gemini Pro model is released before September 1, 2026, September 16, 2026, October 1, 2026, October 16, 2026, November 1, 2026, November 16, 2026, or December 1, 2026. The latest date is December 1, 2026.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Kalshi

The event evaluates multiple potential release timelines for Google's next Gemini Pro model throughout 2026, with successive markets closing on September 1, September 16, October 1, October 16, November 1, November 16, and December 1, 2026. Each market will resolve to 'Yes' if Google publicly releases the next Gemini Pro model before its respective deadline. A public release is defined as one that is not limited to a closed beta, though the model may be initially offered through a high-cost subscription tier. The outcome for each market is determined solely by whether the release occurs prior to its specific date, with no cumulative or dependent conditions between markets.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this market dashboard tracks the collective prediction on when the next Google Gemini Pro model will be released. Currently, the aggregated volume across both platforms is $1,770,585, with $18,277 traded in the last 24 hours. This provides a consensus view, reflecting the wisdom of the crowd. Polymarket currently favors Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by December 31, 2026? at 36.5%, while Kalshi leans toward Will Google release next Gemini Pro model before Dec 1, 2026? at 23.0%. The Gemini Pro model release market allows users to gain insights into future tech developments.

Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. Analysts may be influenced by biases or incentives, while this market aggregates the opinions of a diverse group of traders who have ‘skin in the game’. This can lead to more accurate predictions, as traders are directly incentivized to assess the probability of different outcomes correctly. While analyst forecasts may focus on qualitative factors, this market reflects a quantitative assessment of the likelihood of a specific release timeline for the Gemini Pro model. It’s a valuable data point for anyone following the AI space.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Differences in pricing between Polymarket and Kalshi can arise due to several factors. These platforms have different user bases, trading volumes, and liquidity. The specific market structures and fee schedules on each platform can also influence pricing. Furthermore, varying interpretations of available information regarding Google's development progress can lead to divergent opinions among traders on each venue. The spread between the two platforms is currently 13.5, indicating a degree of disagreement about the most likely release date for the next Gemini Pro model. This market reflects those differing views.

This market resolves around Jan 15, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official announcement of the next Google Gemini Pro model release date. The outcome will be determined by assessing publicly available information, such as press releases, official blog posts, and announcements from Google representatives. The focus is on the official release date, not internal testing or limited previews. This ensures a clear and objective determination of the market’s outcome.

Several signals could significantly impact this market. Official announcements from Google regarding the development progress of the Gemini Pro model are key catalysts. Leaks or credible reports from industry insiders could also cause shifts in trader sentiment. Unexpected delays in the AI field, or major breakthroughs by competitors, might also influence the perceived likelihood of Google’s release timeline. Positive or negative news regarding Google’s overall AI strategy could also move the market. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding the dynamics of this market up to its resolution.