TOTAL VOLUME:

$115.4b

24H VOL:

$69,788,791

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,328,568,758

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,162,109,249

306,885

Markets across

30,210

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,919

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

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Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...?
predict
polymarket

Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...?

Total volume:
$1,127,245
Volume 24h:
$25,687
41%
Liquidity:
$30,285
48%
Open interest:
$93,276N/A

October 31

 - Polymarket

October 31 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 1, 2026

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?

84%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 84¢ buys you 119 shares | Odds: 84% Total Payout: $119 | Net Profit: $19 Multiplier: 1.19x | ROI: 19% | APY: 148% 69 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

October 31

Trade
84%
Yes 84¢No 54¢
38¢
$1,114
$5
0%
N/A
N/A
2mo 1w 2d
active
polymarket

September 30

Trade
61%
1%
Yes 61¢No 83¢
44¢
$924
$29
0%
N/A
N/A
1mo 1w 1d
active
polymarket

September 15

Trade
52%
3%
Yes 52¢No 91¢
43¢
$680
$4
0%
N/A
N/A
3w 2d 19h
active
predict

August 31

Trade
12%
Yes 12¢No 89¢
1¢
$3,265
$5,871
61%
68%
N/A
1w 1d 19h
active
polymarket

August 31

Trade
11%
5%
Yes 11.3¢No 89.1¢
0.4¢
$21,033
$308,635
2%
11%
N/A
1w 1d 19h
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
11.5%
Yes 11.6¢No 89.1¢
Avg: 0.7¢Max: 1¢
predict

August 21

View
3%
Yes 3¢No 97¢
—
$3,254
$2,587
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 1d 19h
No
polymarket

August 21

View
0%
1%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$127,354
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
predict

August 14

View
1%
1%
Yes 1¢No 99¢
—
$15
$1,222
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 1d 19h
No
polymarket

August 14

View
0%
1%
Yes 0.8¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$245,975
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

August 7

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$148,806
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

July 31

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$92,465
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

June 30

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$57,277
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

June 26

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$19,666
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

July 30

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$18,844
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

July 17

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$18,484
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

July 24

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$18,332
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

July 10

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$18,236
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

June 12

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$16,537
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

June 19

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,679
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

July 3

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,620
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

July 29

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,006
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

July 28

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,741
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

June 5

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,462
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

July 27

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,407
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
Total markets: 24

Intro

This market tracks whether Google's next Gemini Pro model will be publicly released by October 31, 2026. The aggregated consensus across Predict and Polymarket currently shows a leading probability of 82.0%. Resolution will be determined by official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting. Watch the October 31, 2026 deadline to see if Google makes the model publicly accessible and explicitly labels it as Pro.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms use identical criteria for determining qualifying Gemini Pro model releases, including labeling requirements, accessibility standards, and resolution sources.Primary resolution logic: Official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting

Core resolution logic:

  • Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as 'Pro' qualifies (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, gemini-4.0-pro-preview)
  • Models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or other non-Pro variants do not qualify
  • A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups
  • Closed beta or private access does not qualify
  • Release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public or made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on Google's official website

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • GA promotion of preview model: Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify
  • Labeling errors: Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model actually accessible to the general public will not qualify
Timing: Resolution occurs after the specified date for each market, based on whether a qualifying Gemini Pro model was released by that dateOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Predict

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the Gemini Pro Model release market dashboard provides a real-time view of aggregated betting across platforms. It shows the current probability of an August 2026 launch, derived from user trades on multiple venues. The display includes total volume of $1,127,245 and 24-hour volume of $7,622, helping users gauge market momentum. Because this market pulls data from several prediction markets, the dashboard offers a consensus view of when Google might unveil its next advanced AI model, reflecting collective trader sentiment rather than a single source.

Currently, prediction markets assign roughly 84.0% probability to an upcoming release, reflecting trader sentiment on timing and likelihood. This contrasts with many analyst forecasts, which may be more conservative or optimistic depending on recent product cycles and Google’s public statements. Market odds tend to react quickly to new information, while analyst reports often incorporate broader strategic considerations. Monitoring both can give a fuller picture of expectations for this market.

On Polymarket and Predict, prices can vary due to differences in user participation and liquidity. Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For example, Polymarket currently favors Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026? at 84.0%, while Predict leans toward Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026? at 12.0%. Factors such as varying trader populations, regional access, and distinct market designs contribute to the spread of 72.0 between the two venues. These dynamics often cause short-term divergence until one platform's odds dominate.

This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution depends on an official announcement or clear evidence from trusted technology news sources that the new model has been released. Until then, traders will adjust positions based on rumors, developer updates, and any signals from Google’s AI roadmap.

Key signals include official Google blog posts, developer conference keynotes, major product launches, or leaks from trusted technology reporters. Any indication — even indirect — about upcoming AI roadmap milestones could shift probabilities in this market. Additionally, competitive moves by other tech firms might influence timing expectations, as could significant advancements in related model architectures that accelerate or delay release plans.