TOTAL VOLUME:
$142.8b
24H VOL:
$98,814,403
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,660,434,525
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,605,027,424
484,805
Markets across
36,640
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,879
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
Dec 31, 2026
all
2 markets
Opinion
Polymarket
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 4, 2026
Latest in Science and Technology
Closed: Sep 12, 8:36 AM EST
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Opinion
Description
This event group tracks whether OpenAI will release GPT-6 to the general public by various target dates spanning from December 31, 2025 through December 31, 2026. All markets require public accessibility (open beta or open rolling waitlist acceptable; closed beta does not qualify) and explicit naming or recognition as a successor to GPT-5. Resolution depends on official OpenAI announcements verified by credible reporting consensus.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
All Polymarket and Opinion markets apply identical resolution criteria: public general availability (open beta or better), explicit GPT-6 naming or recognized GPT-5 succession, official OpenAI announcement, and deadline compliance. No divergence in logic, scope, or source hierarchy detected across platforms.Primary resolution logic: Official OpenAI announcements and product releases, verified by consensus of credible technology reporting sourcesCore resolution logic:
- GPT-6 must be explicitly named GPT-6 or recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5 (e.g., ChatGPT-6o qualifies; GPT-5.5 does not)
- Product must be made available to the general public, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups
- Closed beta, private access, or restricted availability does not satisfy the resolution criteria
- Release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI
- Release must occur by the specified deadline at 11:59 PM ET on the target date
- Resolution uses official OpenAI information as primary source with credible reporting consensus as secondary verification
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Intermediate versions (GPT-5.5, GPT-5.x): Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar intermediate versions do not count as GPT-6 and will resolve to No
- Closed or private beta: Limited access through closed beta, private waitlist, or restricted availability does not satisfy public release criteria and will resolve to No
- Naming ambiguity: Products with variant naming (e.g., ChatGPT-6o, GPT-6 Pro) that are explicitly marketed as GPT-6 or recognized as GPT-5 successors qualify for Yes resolution
- Announcement vs. availability timing: The deadline applies to actual public availability, not announcement date. A product announced before the deadline but released after does not qualify
- Multiple deadline markets: Earlier deadline markets (Dec 31, 2025; Mar 31, 2026) resolve No if GPT-6 releases after their deadline, even if later deadline markets resolve Yes
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Opinion
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets like this one often diverge from traditional analyst reports because traders have direct financial incentive to forecast accurately, whereas analysts face institutional and reputational pressures that may bias their timelines. Market prices reflect live, distributed information—any credible news about GPT-6 development, regulatory hurdles, or competitive pressure gets priced in within minutes. Analysts typically publish quarterly or annual reports with longer lag times. This market's odds also aggregate thousands of individual bets rather than a single expert opinion, reducing idiosyncratic bias. Over time, prediction markets have proven competitive with or superior to expert consensus on technology release dates.
Polymarket and Opinion may show different odds because each platform attracts distinct trader populations, uses different contract structures, and operates under separate liquidity conditions. Polymarket and Opinion can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For example, one platform might weight near-term release scenarios (mid-2026) more heavily due to recent AI announcements, while the other reflects longer-term skepticism. Fees, user interface design, and regional trader bases also influence where volume concentrates. These price gaps create arbitrage opportunities and eventually tend to narrow as informed traders exploit discrepancies. Monitoring both platforms helps you spot emerging consensus shifts before they fully propagate.
Major catalysts include OpenAI's official announcements about GPT-6 capabilities or launch windows, regulatory developments affecting AI deployment, competitive releases from Anthropic or Google, and macroeconomic shifts that influence AI investment priorities. Earnings calls, research papers, and hiring announcements from leading labs often trigger repricing. Geopolitical events or AI safety concerns could also delay timelines and shift odds toward later resolution dates. Trader sentiment is highly responsive to social media discussion and industry conferences where AI leaders discuss their roadmaps. Any credible reporting about GPT-6 beta testing or enterprise partnerships would likely move prices substantially.
