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$142.3b

24H VOL:

$107,419,736

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,643,541,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,594,026,835

471,138

Markets across

35,775

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,926

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
kalshi
polymarket

How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?

Total volume:
$540,339
Volume 24h:
$510
15%
Liquidity:
$15,709
3%
Open interest:
$6,019
8%

Above 3

 - Kalshi

Above 3 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Will above 3 Starship launches reach space in 2026?

91%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 96¢ buys you 104 shares | Odds: 91% Total Payout: $104 | Net Profit: $4 Multiplier: 1.04x | ROI: 4% | APY: 21% 78 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 3

Trade
91%
Yes 96¢No 8¢
4¢
N/A
$1,674
0%
0%
$915
2mo 2w 4d
active
polymarket

<5

Trade
55%
Yes 66¢No 45¢
11¢
$963
$104,649
0%
0.47%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
kalshi

Above 4

Trade
49%
3%
Yes 52¢No 50¢
2¢
N/A
$7,156
0.07%
0.3%
$2,194
2mo 2w 4d
active
polymarket

5-6

Trade
38%
Yes 41¢No 72¢
13¢
$1,022
$119,569
0%
0.94%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
kalshi

Above 5

Trade
5%
Yes 5¢No 96¢
1¢
N/A
$4,930
11%
58%
$1,781
2mo 2w 4d
active
kalshi

Above 8

Trade
4%
Yes 5¢No 96¢
1¢
N/A
$232
0%
7%
$115
2mo 2w 4d
active
kalshi

Above 6

Trade
3%
Yes 4¢No 98¢
2¢
N/A
$850
0%
21%
$469
2mo 2w 4d
active
kalshi

Above 12

Trade
3%
Yes 3¢No 99¢
2¢
N/A
$63
0%
0%
$21
2mo 2w 4d
active
kalshi

Above 7

Trade
2%
Yes 4¢No 97¢
1¢
N/A
$399
0%
0%
$337
2mo 2w 4d
active
kalshi

Above 11

Trade
2%
Yes 4¢No 99¢
3¢
N/A
$142
0%
0%
$131
2mo 2w 4d
active
kalshi

Above 10

Trade
2%
Yes 4¢No 99¢
3¢
N/A
$60
0%
0%
$22
2mo 2w 4d
active
kalshi

Above 9

Trade
2%
Yes 4¢No 99¢
3¢
N/A
$35
0%
0%
$34
2mo 2w 4d
active
polymarket

7-8

Trade
1%
Yes 1.8¢No 99.3¢
1.1¢
$2,291
$164,567
0%
0.78%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
polymarket

9-10

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 99.8¢
0.8¢
$1,631
$66,302
0%
2%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
polymarket

>16

Trade
0%
Yes 0.7¢No 99.9¢
0.6¢
$2,052
$15,254
0%
0.18%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
polymarket

11-12

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$2,337
$11,333
0%
0.25%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
polymarket

15-16

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$2,974
$32,052
0%
0.02%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
polymarket

13-14

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$2,439
$11,071
0%
0.05%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
Total markets: 18

Intro

This market tracks the number of successful SpaceX Starship launches reaching space – specifically an altitude of 62 miles above sea level – during the 2026 calendar year. Currently, the consensus probability that more than 3 launches will reach space in 2026 is 91.0%. This prediction is an aggregation of views from Kalshi and Polymarket, and will resolve based on SpaceX’s official launch video feeds and credible reporting. Keep an eye on the first planned Starship launch window of 2026, as early successes or failures will heavily influence market expectations.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket uses mutually exclusive count brackets while Kalshi uses overlapping threshold conditions. Both measure the same underlying metric (Starship launches reaching 62 miles in 2026) but structure outcomes differently, creating potential pricing and settlement logic misalignment.Hero tip: Polymarket brackets are exclusive—only one resolves Yes. Kalshi thresholds are cumulative—multiple can resolve Yes for the same outcome. If actual count is 9, Polymarket's 9-10 bracket resolves Yes while Kalshi's above 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 all resolve Yes. Monitor SpaceX official launch data and verify which Polymarket bracket and which Kalshi thresholds apply to the final count before claiming settlement.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Offers nine mutually exclusive binary markets partitioning the outcome space: less than 5, 5-6, 7-8, 9-10, 11-12, 13-14, 15-16, and more than 16. Exactly one resolves Yes based on final count. Resolution source: SpaceX official video feed (YouTube) with secondary credible reporting as backup. Definition: launch from launchpad reaching minimum 62 miles altitude; post-62-mile anomalies do not affect outcome.
  • Kalshi: Offers ten overlapping threshold-based binary markets: above 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 launches. Multiple markets resolve Yes for a single outcome count. For example, if actual count is 8, then all markets with thresholds below 8 (above 3, 4, 5, 6, 7) resolve Yes. No explicit resolution source or definition provided; assumes same 62-mile altitude standard.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

This event comprises multiple markets tracking cumulative thresholds of Starship launches reaching space in 2026. A Starship launch is counted as reaching space if its maximum altitude exceeds 62 miles (approximately 100 kilometers) above sea level at any point during flight. Each market resolves Yes if the total number of qualifying launches exceeds its specified threshold—ranging from above 3 launches through above 12 launches. The 62-mile altitude standard aligns with the internationally recognized Kármán line boundary of space. All launches must occur within the 2026 calendar year. Resolution is based on confirmed flight data from SpaceX or official aerospace tracking sources documenting the maximum altitude achieved during each flight attempt.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, the Starship launch market dashboard aggregates real-time predictions on the number of successful SpaceX Starship launches to space during 2026. Currently, there's a consensus view that fewer than 5 launches will reach space, though opinions differ between the platforms. The total volume traded across both venues is $540,339, with $510 changing hands in the last 24 hours. This dashboard provides a comprehensive look at the collective wisdom of the crowd regarding this ambitious undertaking, offering a unique perspective beyond traditional forecasts. The short_topic allows for easy tracking of this specific prediction market.

Prediction market odds often provide a distinct signal compared to traditional analyst forecasts. Analysts may be subject to biases or incentives that influence their predictions, while this market reflects the aggregated beliefs of a diverse group of traders who have ‘skin in the game.’ Currently, the implied probability from this market suggests a higher chance of fewer successful launches than many initial analyst projections. This difference can be attributed to traders incorporating a wider range of factors, including technical challenges, regulatory hurdles, and potential delays inherent in complex space programs. The dynamic pricing mechanism ensures the market continually adjusts to new information.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors, including differing user bases, trading volumes, and market-specific rules. Polymarket currently favors Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? at 55.0%, while Kalshi leans toward Will above 3 Starship launches reach space in 2026? at 91.0%. Each platform attracts a unique set of traders with varying risk appetites and information access. Furthermore, liquidity levels can influence price discovery; a more liquid market tends to have tighter spreads and more accurate pricing. Differences in trading fees and platform features can also contribute to these discrepancies, creating arbitrage opportunities for informed traders.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The number of SpaceX Starship launches that successfully reach space during the calendar year 2026 will be assessed based on publicly available data from official sources, such as SpaceX announcements and independent verification by space tracking organizations. The resolution will be based on whether the launch achieved a trajectory that is generally recognized as reaching space, as defined by the Karman line or similar established standards. The final outcome will be determined objectively based on these verifiable criteria.

Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Successful or failed static fire tests of the Starship system, updates on regulatory approvals from the FAA, and announcements regarding launch schedules would all be key catalysts. Unexpected technical difficulties or delays in engine development could lower expectations, while positive test results and expedited approvals could increase them. Major news regarding competitor launch programs could also influence trading activity. Any significant change in SpaceX’s stated launch cadence or public statements from Elon Musk regarding Starship’s progress would likely cause substantial movement in the market.