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333,737

Markets across

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PLATFORM COVERAGE:

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How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
kalshi
polymarket

How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?

Total volume:
$512,439
Volume 24h:
$1,382
388%
Liquidity:
$11,225
11%
Open interest:
$5,477
0%

Above 3

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Will above 3 Starship launches reach space in 2026?

85%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 88¢ buys you 114 shares | Odds: 85% Total Payout: $114 | Net Profit: $14 Multiplier: 1.14x | ROI: 14% | APY: 44% 127 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 3

Trade
85%
Yes 88¢No 15¢
3¢
N/A
$1,449
0%
164%
$700
4mo 1w
active
polymarket

<5

Trade
56%
Yes 60¢No 49¢
9¢
$478
$100,633
0%
1%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
70.5%
Yes 74¢No 32¢
Avg: 6¢Max: 9¢
kalshi

Above 4

Trade
46%
Yes 44¢No 59¢
3¢
N/A
$2,611
0%
69%
$1,440
4mo 1w
active
polymarket

5-6

Trade
36%
1%
Yes 40¢No 69¢
9¢
$524
$115,911
0.16%
2%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
kalshi

Above 5

Trade
5%
Yes 3¢No 98¢
1¢
N/A
$2,435
0%
60%
$2,328
4mo 1w
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
20.5%
Yes 21.5¢No 83.5¢
Avg: 5¢Max: 9¢
kalshi

Above 7

Trade
10%
Yes 7¢No 98¢
5¢
N/A
$394
0%
0%
$332
4mo 1w
active
kalshi

Above 6

Trade
12%
Yes 5¢No 97¢
2¢
N/A
$432
0%
12%
$364
4mo 1w
active
polymarket

7-8

Trade
3%
Yes 4.2¢No 98.9¢
3.1¢
$3,269
$160,451
0.23%
1%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
7.5%
Yes 4.6¢No 98¢
Avg: 2.6¢Max: 3.1¢
kalshi

Above 8

Trade
6%
Yes 5¢No 97¢
2¢
N/A
$212
0%
55%
$110
4mo 1w
active
polymarket

>16

Trade
2%
Yes 2.7¢No 98.8¢
1.5¢
$1,206
$13,837
1%
11%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
4%
Yes 3.9¢No 97.9¢
Avg: 1.8¢Max: 2¢
kalshi

Above 9

Trade
6%
Yes 6¢No 97¢
3¢
N/A
$30
0%
0%
$29
4mo 1w
active
polymarket

9-10

Trade
0%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.8¢
0.1¢
$721
$62,577
0.01%
2%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
3%
Yes 3.2¢No 98.4¢
Avg: 1.6¢Max: 3¢
kalshi

Above 10

Trade
5%
Yes 5¢No 98¢
3¢
N/A
$60
0%
0%
$22
4mo 1w
active
polymarket

13-14

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$1,841
$10,385
2%
13%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
2.5%
Yes 2.6¢No 99¢
Avg: 1.6¢Max: 3¢
kalshi

Above 12

Trade
3%
Yes 3¢No 99¢
2¢
N/A
$63
0%
0%
$21
4mo 1w
active
polymarket

15-16

Trade
0%
Yes 0.4¢No 99.9¢
0.3¢
$2,138
$31,285
0.69%
4%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
1.5%
Yes 1.7¢No 99.4¢
Avg: 1.2¢Max: 2¢
kalshi

Above 11

Trade
2%
Yes 4¢No 99¢
3¢
N/A
$142
0%
0%
$131
4mo 1w
active
polymarket

11-12

Trade
1%
1%
Yes 1.5¢No 99.4¢
0.9¢
$1,048
$9,531
2%
14%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
1.5%
Yes 2.8¢No 99.2¢
Avg: 2¢Max: 3¢
Total markets: 18

Intro

This market tracks whether more than three SpaceX Starship launches will reach an altitude of 62 miles above sea level in 2026. The aggregated consensus probability for the leading outcome is 88.0%, drawn from Kalshi and Polymarket, and will resolve based on SpaceX’s official video feed and credible reporting. Watch for updates around the end of the betting period on December 31, 2026, as this is when the final count of successful launches will be confirmed.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket uses mutually exclusive count brackets while Kalshi uses overlapping threshold conditions. Both measure the same underlying metric (Starship launches reaching 62 miles in 2026) but structure outcomes differently, creating potential pricing and settlement logic misalignment.Hero tip: Polymarket brackets are exclusive—only one resolves Yes. Kalshi thresholds are cumulative—multiple can resolve Yes for the same outcome. If actual count is 9, Polymarket's 9-10 bracket resolves Yes while Kalshi's above 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 all resolve Yes. Monitor SpaceX official launch data and verify which Polymarket bracket and which Kalshi thresholds apply to the final count before claiming settlement.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Offers nine mutually exclusive binary markets partitioning the outcome space: less than 5, 5-6, 7-8, 9-10, 11-12, 13-14, 15-16, and more than 16. Exactly one resolves Yes based on final count. Resolution source: SpaceX official video feed (YouTube) with secondary credible reporting as backup. Definition: launch from launchpad reaching minimum 62 miles altitude; post-62-mile anomalies do not affect outcome.
  • Kalshi: Offers ten overlapping threshold-based binary markets: above 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 launches. Multiple markets resolve Yes for a single outcome count. For example, if actual count is 8, then all markets with thresholds below 8 (above 3, 4, 5, 6, 7) resolve Yes. No explicit resolution source or definition provided; assumes same 62-mile altitude standard.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

This event comprises multiple markets tracking cumulative thresholds of Starship launches reaching space in 2026. A Starship launch is counted as reaching space if its maximum altitude exceeds 62 miles (approximately 100 kilometers) above sea level at any point during flight. Each market resolves Yes if the total number of qualifying launches exceeds its specified threshold—ranging from above 3 launches through above 12 launches. The 62-mile altitude standard aligns with the internationally recognized Kármán line boundary of space. All launches must occur within the 2026 calendar year. Resolution is based on confirmed flight data from SpaceX or official aerospace tracking sources documenting the maximum altitude achieved during each flight attempt.

Frequently asked questions

The SpaceX Starship launch count market aggregates trader positions across Polymarket and Kalshi, tracking how many times SpaceX's Starship vehicle will successfully reach space during 2026. On Polymarket, the leading outcome centers on 7–8 launches at 55.5% probability, while Kalshi emphasizes outcomes above 9 launches at 85.0%. This market reflects real-time consensus among thousands of traders betting on SpaceX's launch cadence and vehicle reliability over the coming year.

Prediction markets like this one often diverge from traditional aerospace analyst estimates because traders incorporate real-time operational data, supply-chain updates, and regulatory developments. While aerospace firms and space agencies publish annual launch projections, market prices adjust continuously as new information emerges—test results, engine delays, or successful flights. This dynamic repricing can make prediction markets a leading indicator of industry sentiment, though both sources remain valuable for triangulating realistic launch expectations.

Polymarket and Kalshi may price this market differently due to variations in their user bases, liquidity depth, and contract design. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts traders with distinct risk tolerances and information sets, so the same underlying event can command different odds. Additionally, contract granularity—whether outcomes are bundled as 7–8 launches versus 9+ launches—creates natural pricing gaps that reflect how each platform segments the probability space.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the total number of Starship launches reaching space in 2026 is verifiable from credible public reporting. SpaceX's official announcements, regulatory filings, and independent aerospace tracking sources will establish the final count. Traders holding positions aligned with the actual launch total will receive payouts proportional to their stake.

Major catalysts include successful or failed Starship test flights, engine production milestones, FAA licensing decisions, and SpaceX's quarterly updates on launch schedules. Weather delays, supply-chain disruptions, or unexpected technical issues can shift trader expectations downward, while rapid vehicle turnaround times or regulatory approvals may drive odds higher. International competition and funding announcements also influence sentiment on SpaceX's ability to sustain a high launch cadence throughout 2026.