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Science and Technology
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
Science and Technology
polymarket
kalshi

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

Total volume:
$9,520,110
Volume 24h:
$50,970
26%
Liquidity:
$86,267
21%
Open interest:
$5,752,380
0.62%

Claude

all

2 markets

Kalshi

68.5%

Polymarket

12%

consensus

40.3%

-0.6%

spread

12-68.5%

(56.5pp)

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

10
9
5
9
10
7

Aug 20

Aug 21

Aug 22

Aug 23

Aug 24

Aug 25

Aug 27

Vol.

$66k

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Best AI in Dec 2026?

69%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 68.5¢ buys you 146 shares | Odds: 69% Total Payout: $146 | Net Profit: $46 Multiplier: 1.46x | ROI: 46% | APY: 199% 126 days to resolution
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 12¢ buys you 833 shares | Odds: 12% Total Payout: $833 | Net Profit: $733 Multiplier: 8.33x | ROI: 733% APY not meaningful 125 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
MUI X License key version mismatch
Total markets: 22

Intro

This market tracks which AI companies will have the top-ranked large language model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard by December 31, 2026. The aggregated consensus probability for the leading outcome stands at 66.1%, drawing data from Polymarket and Kalshi, with resolution based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard. Watch the leaderboard updates as the December 31, 2026 deadline approaches for a potential shift in rankings.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms use identical resolution logic: rank #1 on Chatbot Arena Text Arena Overall leaderboard by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, with ties counting as Yes.Primary resolution logic: Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text (Text Arena | Overall tab, style control off)

Core resolution logic:

  • A company resolves to Yes if any model it owns or operates achieves rank #1 on the Chatbot Arena Text Arena Overall leaderboard
  • Ties for #1 rank count as Yes resolution
  • Resolution date is December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
  • Ranking is determined by the Rank column under the Text Arena | Overall tab with style control disabled
  • Each company has an independent binary market; multiple companies can resolve Yes if multiple models tie for #1

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Leaderboard Unavailability: If https://lmarena.ai/ is offline at resolution time, markets remain open until the leaderboard comes back online. Resolution occurs on first check after restoration. If permanently unavailable, an alternative resolution source will be used.
  • Tied Rankings: If a company's model ties for #1 rank with other models, the market resolves to Yes for that company.
  • Multiple Models per Company: If a company has multiple models on the leaderboard, only the highest-ranked model matters. If any model achieves #1 or ties for #1, the company resolves Yes.
  • Company Ownership Changes: Resolution is based on company ownership as of December 31, 2026. Models must be attributed to the specified company at resolution time.
Timing: Resolution occurs on December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET based on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard state at that moment.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Show more

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Kalshi

The market resolves based on which company's large language model holds the top ranking on December 31, 2026, according to the specified ranking source. When two models are tied under Rank (UB), the model with the highest Arena Score prevails. If still tied, the model with the most votes wins. If still tied after that, the model released earlier wins. Resolution is determined by checking the source with the 'Remove Style Control' toggle enabled. Possible winners include models from Baidu (Ernie), Google (Gemini), OpenAI (ChatGPT), Anthropic (Claude), xAI (Grok), Meta (Muse Spark), and Alibaba (Qwen).

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates real-time odds across Polymarket and Kalshi, tracking consensus on which companies will achieve a number-one ranked AI model by year-end 2026. It displays live probability shifts, trading volume of $9,383,171 across all platforms, and 24-hour activity of $40,936, giving you a cross-platform snapshot of market conviction. You can compare how different prediction exchanges price the same event and identify where the strongest trader interest lies.

Prediction market odds reflect real-money bets from thousands of traders and represent crowdsourced probability estimates. Unlike traditional analyst reports, which may lag or carry institutional bias, these markets update continuously as new AI breakthroughs, product launches, and competitive developments emerge. Market prices often incorporate forward-looking signals faster than published forecasts, making them a complementary lens for assessing which companies are most likely to lead the AI rankings by the deadline.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and regulatory environments, which can create price gaps. Polymarket shows 28.5% on its top outcome, while Kalshi reflects 68.7%, a spread of 40.2 percentage points. Differences arise from varying order-book depth, user base composition, fee structures, and how each platform frames the underlying question. Arbitrage opportunities and timing lags between platforms can also explain temporary divergence.

The market resolves on Dec 31, 2026. Outcome determination depends on identifying which company or companies have released or deployed an AI model ranked number-one by credible third-party benchmarks, industry consensus, or pre-specified evaluation criteria at that time. Resolution hinges on verifiable evidence of model performance, public availability, and ranking methodology established at market inception. Traders should review the exact resolution criteria on their chosen platform before placing positions.

Major catalysts include new model releases from OpenAI, Google DeepMind, Anthropic, Meta, and other labs; benchmark results on standardized AI evaluation suites; regulatory announcements affecting AI deployment; breakthrough research papers; and real-world performance data from deployed systems. Funding announcements, talent acquisitions, and partnerships can also shift market expectations. Geopolitical developments, compute availability, and shifts in AI safety standards may influence which company's model ultimately claims the top ranking by year-end 2026.