TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
Total volume:
$20,173
Volume 24h:
$337
52%
Liquidity:
$70,914
15%
Open interest:
$7,786
0%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
These markets assess whether specific AI companies will have the top-ranked large language model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard by December 31, 2026. Both Kalshi and Polymarket use the same resolution source (Chatbot Arena) and identical ranking methodology, creating a unified event across platforms with multiple company-specific binary outcomes.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both platforms use identical resolution logic: rank #1 on Chatbot Arena Text Arena Overall leaderboard by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, with ties counting as Yes.
Primary resolution logic:
Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text (Text Arena | Overall tab, style control off)Core resolution logic:
- A company resolves to Yes if any model it owns or operates achieves rank #1 on the Chatbot Arena Text Arena Overall leaderboard
- Ties for #1 rank count as Yes resolution
- Resolution date is December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
- Ranking is determined by the Rank column under the Text Arena | Overall tab with style control disabled
- Each company has an independent binary market; multiple companies can resolve Yes if multiple models tie for #1
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- Leaderboard Unavailability: If https://lmarena.ai/ is offline at resolution time, markets remain open until the leaderboard comes back online. Resolution occurs on first check after restoration. If permanently unavailable, an alternative resolution source will be used.
- Tied Rankings: If a company's model ties for #1 rank with other models, the market resolves to Yes for that company.
- Multiple Models per Company: If a company has multiple models on the leaderboard, only the highest-ranked model matters. If any model achieves #1 or ties for #1, the company resolves Yes.
- Company Ownership Changes: Resolution is based on company ownership as of December 31, 2026. Models must be attributed to the specified company at resolution time.
Timing:
Resolution occurs on December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET based on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard state at that moment.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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