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OPEN INTEREST:

$1,735,667,054

505,688

Markets across

37,539

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MATCHED EVENTS:

2,849

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

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Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
polymarket
kalshi

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

Total volume:
$15,429,588
Volume 24h:
$81,928
2%
Liquidity:
$67,855
2%
Open interest:
$8,026,917
0.27%

Anthropic

 - Polymarket

Anthropic - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

74%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 77¢ buys you 130 shares | Odds: 74% Total Payout: $130 | Net Profit: $30 Multiplier: 1.30x | ROI: 30% | APY: 291% Low liquidity 69 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Anthropic

Trade
74%
6%
Yes 77¢No 30¢
7¢
$260
$2,235
9%
22%
N/A
2mo 1w 2d
active
kalshi

Claude

Trade
50%
Yes 50.3¢No 49.8¢
0.1¢
N/A
$3,050,417
0.41%
3%
$1,417,991
2mo 1w 2d
active
polymarket

Meta

Trade
9%
3%
Yes 10¢No 92¢
2¢
$6,252
$24,472
6%
15%
N/A
2mo 1w 2d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
50%
Yes 30.2¢No 70.9¢
Avg: 1.1¢Max: 2¢
kalshi

Gemini

Trade
39%
Yes 38.7¢No 62.1¢
0.8¢
N/A
$2,755,243
0.45%
5%
$1,271,059
2mo 1w 2d
active
polymarket

Google

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$46,321
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 1w 2d
Yes
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
38.9%
Yes 69.4¢No 31.1¢
Avg: 0.8¢Max: 0.8¢
polymarket

OpenAI

Trade
15%
1%
Yes 16¢No 86¢
2¢
$1,477
$40,744
0.6%
2%
N/A
2mo 1w 2d
active
kalshi

ChatGPT

Trade
9%
Yes 8.7¢No 91.4¢
0.1¢
N/A
$2,908,673
0.37%
3%
$1,381,816
2mo 1w 2d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
8.7%
Yes 12.4¢No 88.7¢
Avg: 1.1¢Max: 2¢
polymarket

DeepSeek

Trade
6%
Yes 6¢No 95¢
1¢
$10,627
$25,448
3%
5%
N/A
2mo 1w 2d
active
polymarket

Baidu

Trade
5%
Yes 6¢No 96¢
2¢
$8,506
$3,671
0%
3%
N/A
2mo 1w 2d
active
polymarket

Alibaba

Trade
5%
Yes 5¢No 96¢
1¢
$10,337
$5,665
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 1w 2d
active
polymarket

Microsoft

Trade
5%
Yes 5¢No 96¢
1¢
$11,331
$5,454
0%
0.04%
N/A
2mo 1w 2d
active
polymarket

Amazon

Trade
4%
Yes 7.1¢No 98.2¢
5.3¢
$1,646
$9,194
0%
10%
N/A
2mo 1w 2d
active
polymarket

Z.ai

Trade
4%
Yes 4.4¢No 96¢
0.4¢
$1,873
$8,047
0.18%
0.18%
N/A
2mo 1w 2d
active
polymarket

Moonshot

Trade
3%
Yes 3.6¢No 98¢
1.6¢
$3,494
$15,197
0%
0.39%
N/A
2mo 1w 2d
active
polymarket

Mistral

Trade
3%
Yes 3¢No 97.9¢
0.9¢
$4,042
$12,933
0%
0.24%
N/A
2mo 1w 2d
active
polymarket

xAI

Trade
7%
Yes 8¢No 94¢
2¢
$3,485
$10,951
0.96%
1%
N/A
2mo 1w 2d
active
kalshi

Grok

Trade
3%
Yes 2.6¢No 97.5¢
0.1¢
N/A
$2,034,039
0.56%
4%
$1,187,772
2mo 1w 2d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
2.5%
Yes 5.3¢No 95.8¢
Avg: 1.1¢Max: 2¢
polymarket

Meituan

Trade
3%
Yes 3.2¢No 98.2¢
1.4¢
$2,601
$6,162
0%
0.05%
N/A
2mo 1w 2d
active
kalshi

LLaMA

Trade
2%
Yes 2.1¢No 98¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,772,698
0.31%
6%
$966,155
2mo 1w 2d
active
kalshi

Kimi

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$694,053
0.07%
0.13%
$525,521
2mo 1w 2d
active
kalshi

Qwen

Trade
1%
Yes 0.6¢No 99.5¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,094,489
0.02%
3%
$689,015
2mo 1w 2d
active
polymarket

ByteDance

Trade
1%
Yes 0.9¢No 99.7¢
0.6¢
$1,923
$4,739
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 1w 2d
active
kalshi

Ernie

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
N/A
$898,745
0%
5%
$587,589
2mo 1w 2d
active
Total markets: 23

Description

These markets assess whether specific AI companies will have the top-ranked large language model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard by December 31, 2026. Both Kalshi and Polymarket use the same resolution source (Chatbot Arena) and identical ranking methodology, creating a unified event across platforms with multiple company-specific binary outcomes.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms use identical resolution logic: rank #1 on Chatbot Arena Text Arena Overall leaderboard by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, with ties counting as Yes.Primary resolution logic: Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text (Text Arena | Overall tab, style control off)

Core resolution logic:

  • A company resolves to Yes if any model it owns or operates achieves rank #1 on the Chatbot Arena Text Arena Overall leaderboard
  • Ties for #1 rank count as Yes resolution
  • Resolution date is December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
  • Ranking is determined by the Rank column under the Text Arena | Overall tab with style control disabled
  • Each company has an independent binary market; multiple companies can resolve Yes if multiple models tie for #1

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Leaderboard Unavailability: If https://lmarena.ai/ is offline at resolution time, markets remain open until the leaderboard comes back online. Resolution occurs on first check after restoration. If permanently unavailable, an alternative resolution source will be used.
  • Tied Rankings: If a company's model ties for #1 rank with other models, the market resolves to Yes for that company.
  • Multiple Models per Company: If a company has multiple models on the leaderboard, only the highest-ranked model matters. If any model achieves #1 or ties for #1, the company resolves Yes.
  • Company Ownership Changes: Resolution is based on company ownership as of December 31, 2026. Models must be attributed to the specified company at resolution time.
Timing: Resolution occurs on December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET based on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard state at that moment.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Kalshi

The market resolves based on which company's large language model holds the top ranking on December 31, 2026, according to the specified ranking source. When two models are tied under Rank (UB), the model with the highest Arena Score prevails. If still tied, the model with the most votes wins. If still tied after that, the model released earlier wins. Resolution is determined by checking the source with the 'Remove Style Control' toggle enabled. Possible winners include models from Baidu (Ernie), Google (Gemini), OpenAI (ChatGPT), Anthropic (Claude), xAI (Grok), Meta (Muse Spark), and Alibaba (Qwen).

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, the AI model leadership market dashboard tracks the probabilities of various companies establishing a leading artificial intelligence model by Jan 1, 2027. Currently, the aggregated volume across both platforms exceeds $15,429,588, with $55,286 traded in the last 24 hours. This provides a consensus view of predictions regarding which organization will achieve dominance in the rapidly evolving AI landscape. This dashboard offers a unique perspective on the collective wisdom of the crowd concerning the AI model leadership market, synthesizing data from multiple sources to present a comprehensive outlook.

Prediction market odds often reflect a more nuanced and up-to-date assessment than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts rely on reports and projections, this market incorporates real-time information and a diverse range of perspectives from participants actively trading on Polymarket and Kalshi. The collective intelligence displayed in this market can sometimes anticipate shifts in sentiment or emerging developments before they are fully reflected in conventional analysis. The current spread between leading contenders is 23.2, suggesting a degree of uncertainty even among market participants.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts a different user base with varying risk appetites and information access. Trading volumes also differ significantly; Polymarket currently shows a chance percentage of 73.5% for Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?, while Kalshi leans toward Best AI in Dec 2026? at 50.3%. These differences in participation and liquidity can lead to price discrepancies, even for the same underlying event. Furthermore, subtle variations in market design and trading rules can also contribute to these observed price differences.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The determination of which company has the leading AI model will be based on publicly available benchmarks and expert evaluations, assessing performance across a range of key metrics. The focus will be on identifying the organization whose model demonstrates superior capabilities as of the resolution date. The outcome will be assessed based on widely recognized standards within the AI community, ensuring a fair and objective assessment.

Several signals could significantly impact this market before Jan 1, 2027. Major breakthroughs in AI research, such as the development of a substantially more powerful algorithm, would likely cause shifts in probabilities. Announcements from key players like Google, Microsoft, or OpenAI regarding new model releases or performance improvements could also trigger substantial price movements. Unexpected regulatory changes or geopolitical events affecting AI development could also influence trading activity. Furthermore, the release of independent benchmark results comparing the performance of different AI models will be closely watched by traders.