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404,744

Markets across

30,489

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MATCHED EVENTS:

2,691

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Which company has best AI model end of July?
predict
kalshi
polymarket

Which company has best AI model end of July?

Volume:
$8,996,314

Anthropic

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Predict

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 31, 2026

Closed: Jul 31, 5:36 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Anthropic

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,244,192
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
predict

Anthropic

View
N/A
N/A
—
$102
$228,602
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Claude

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$163,559
N/A
N/A
$66,610
Settled
Yes
polymarket

OpenAI

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$953,319
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

OpenAI

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
$14,939
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Google

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$845,873
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Google

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
$21,181
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

xAI

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$828,014
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

xAI

View
N/A
N/A
—
$9,579
$196
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Meta

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$673,223
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Moonshot

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$673,000
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Moonshot

View
N/A
N/A
—
$3,819
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

DeepSeek

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$547,925
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

DeepSeek

View
N/A
N/A
—
$13,510
$9,215
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Alibaba

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$463,283
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Alibaba

View
N/A
N/A
—
$10,284
$156
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Microsoft

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$368,519
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Z.ai

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$344,273
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Z.ai

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
$31,230
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

ByteDance

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$296,365
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Baidu

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$291,436
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Meituan

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$278,531
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Meituan

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Mistral

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$222,882
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Mistral

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
$9,804
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 43

Intro

This market tracks which company will have the best AI model by the end of July 2026, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard. The aggregated consensus probability from Predict, Kalshi, and Polymarket shows 99.0% for Anthropic having the leading model. The market will resolve according to the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard on July 31, 2026. Watch for the leaderboard update at the end of the betting period on that date to determine the final ranking.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Three platforms diverge on both the resolution date (Predict: June 30 vs Polymarket/Kalshi: July 31) and the primary resolution metric (Predict: Arena Score vs Polymarket: Rank with Arena Score tiebreaker vs Kalshi: unspecified 'top-ranked'). This creates the potential for different winners across platforms.Hero tip: Treat Predict as a separate market with a one-month earlier resolution date. Focus on Polymarket and Kalshi for July 31 outcomes, but note that Polymarket's explicit tiebreaker hierarchy (Rank > Arena Score > Alphabetical) differs from Kalshi's implicit approach. Monitor the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard closely in late July to identify which company will occupy the top position under each platform's specific criteria.

Critical divergence points:

  • Predict: Resolves June 30, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET using Arena Score as the primary metric. Alphabetical order is the tiebreaker if two models tie on Arena Score. Quote: 'Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.'
  • Polymarket: Resolves July 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET using Rank as the primary metric, with Arena Score (including granular unrounded values) as the first tiebreaker and alphabetical order as the final tiebreaker. Quote: 'Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market's check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values.'
  • Kalshi: Resolves July 31, 2026 based on 'top-ranked LLM' without explicit metric specification, time-of-day precision, or documented tiebreaker logic. Quote: 'If Anthropic has the top-ranked LLM on Jul 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by identifying which company has the top-ranked large language model on July 31, 2026. The ranking is established using a hierarchical tiebreaker system to ensure a single definitive winner. When models are tied in rank, the tiebreaker sequence prioritizes: (1) highest Arena Score, (2) most votes received, and (3) earliest release date. This cascading approach guarantees that even in cases of statistical equivalence, a clear winner can be determined. The evaluation framework applies uniformly across all competing companies—Google (Gemini), OpenAI (ChatGPT), Anthropic (Claude), xAI (Grok), Meta (LLaMA), and Alibaba (Qwen)—ensuring consistent and fair comparison of their respective language models.

Predict

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No") The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates real-time odds and trading activity across Polymarket and Kalshi for the same event: which company will have the best AI model by end of July 2026. You can monitor consensus probability shifts, compare how each platform's traders are pricing the outcome, and track total group volume of $8,996,314 across both venues. The cross-platform view reveals whether market participants are converging on a single frontrunner or diverging in their assessments of leading AI developers like Anthropic, xAI, OpenAI, and others.

Prediction markets aggregate distributed trader beliefs into real-time probabilities, which often differ from published analyst reports or research firm rankings. Analysts may rely on older benchmarks or qualitative assessments, while market odds reflect current information and financial incentives. For this AI model competition, market participants continuously update their views based on new model releases, benchmark results, and capability announcements. Comparing market consensus to analyst forecasts can highlight where professional opinion diverges from crowd expectations and reveal emerging consensus about which company's AI capabilities will lead by July 2026.

Major catalysts include new model releases from Anthropic, xAI, OpenAI, Google DeepMind, and other competitors; benchmark results on reasoning, coding, and multimodal tasks; real-world deployment success and user adoption metrics; regulatory or safety developments affecting model deployment; and scientific breakthroughs in AI architecture or training. Quarterly earnings calls, AI conference announcements, and head-to-head capability comparisons will likely drive significant odds shifts. Market participants will closely watch model performance on emerging benchmarks and any public statements from industry leaders about competitive positioning through July 2026.