TOTAL VOLUME:

$142.3b

24H VOL:

$107,419,736

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,643,541,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,594,026,835

471,138

Markets across

35,775

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,926

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Science and Technology
Human moon landing in 2026?
polymarket
opinion

Human moon landing in 2026?

Total volume:
$2,672,582
Volume 24h:
$132N/A
Liquidity:
$20,378
3%
Open interest:
$20,052N/A

Human moon landing in 2026?

all

2 markets

Opinion

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Human moon landing in 2026?

63%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
opinion

Trade on Opinion

At 98.9¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 63% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 1% | APY: 4% 76 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
opinion

Human moon landing in 2026?

Trade
63%
Yes 98.9¢No 99.3¢
98.2¢
N/A
$696,738
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 2w 2d
active
polymarket

Human moon landing in 2026?

Trade
1%
Yes 1.6¢No 99.2¢
0.8¢
$20,378
$1,975,845
0.01%
0.02%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
1.2%
Yes 50.2¢No 99.3¢
Avg: 49.5¢Max: 98.2¢
Total markets: 2

Intro

This market tracks the likelihood of a human returning to the moon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Currently, the consensus probability of a successful human moon landing in 2026 is 63.2%, as aggregated from Polymarket and Opinion. Resolution will be determined by a consensus of credible reporting. Keep an eye on NASA’s Artemis 3 mission, currently scheduled for September 2026, as its success or delay will heavily influence the outcome of this market.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both Polymarket and Opinion platforms specify identical resolution criteria, timing window, trigger condition (human-crewed touchdown), and source methodology with no material divergence.Primary resolution logic: Consensus of credible reporting

Core resolution logic:

  • Market resolves YES if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
  • A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard is sufficient to trigger YES resolution
  • Technical complications or mission failures after touchdown do not prevent YES resolution
  • Market resolves NO if no human-crewed lunar landing occurs by the deadline
  • Resolution determined by consensus of credible reporting sources

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Post-landing technical failure: If humans land on the moon but the spacecraft malfunctions afterward, the market still resolves YES because touchdown with humans aboard has occurred
  • Uncrewed landing: If only uncrewed spacecraft land on the moon in 2026, the market resolves NO; human presence is required
  • Lunar orbit without landing: If humans reach lunar orbit but do not land, the market resolves NO; a surface touchdown is required
  • Reporting consensus ambiguity: If credible sources conflict on whether a landing occurred, resolution follows the preponderance of credible reporting
Timing: Resolution occurs upon confirmed human-crewed lunar touchdown or at market expiration on December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes firstOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Opinion

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Opinion, the 2026 moon landing market dashboard aggregates real-time predictions about whether a crewed lunar landing will occur before January 1, 2027. Currently, the combined volume across both platforms exceeds $2,672,582, with $157 traded in the last 24 hours. This provides a consensus view of probability, reflecting the collective wisdom of traders on each venue. Polymarket currently shows a probability of 1.2% for a successful landing, while Opinion indicates 63.2%.

Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts rely on expert opinions and modeling, this market reflects the aggregated beliefs of a diverse group of traders who are incentivized to be accurate. This can lead to discrepancies, particularly in situations with high uncertainty. Currently, the implied probability from this market is influenced by factors like NASA's Artemis program progress and technological hurdles. It’s a dynamic assessment, constantly updated by traders responding to new information.

Prices on Polymarket and Opinion may diverge due to several factors. Polymarket and Opinion can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has its own user base, trading dynamics, and risk tolerance, which can influence price discovery. Additionally, different platforms may have varying liquidity and trading fees. The spread between the two platforms is currently 62.0. These differences highlight the importance of considering multiple sources of information when assessing the likelihood of a 2026 moon landing. It’s also possible that differing interpretations of news events contribute to these price discrepancies.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on whether a crewed spacecraft successfully lands on the moon and returns to Earth before the specified date. The outcome will be determined by evidence from established space agencies and widely recognized news sources. Traders should monitor developments in space exploration and be aware that the resolution process relies on publicly available and independently verifiable information.

Several key signals could significantly impact this market. Major announcements from NASA regarding the Artemis program, such as launch dates or technical setbacks, will likely cause price fluctuations. Successful or failed tests of critical technologies, like the Space Launch System and Orion spacecraft, are also important catalysts. Unexpected geopolitical events or changes in government funding for space exploration could also move the market. Positive developments, such as a successful uncrewed lunar mission, would likely increase the probability of a 2026 landing, while delays or failures could decrease it.