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Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
Climate and Weather
opinion
predict
polymarket

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

Total volume:
$3,428,865
Volume 24h:
$1,229
136%
Liquidity:
$318,462
1%
Open interest:
$220,618N/A

1

all

3 markets

Polymarket

75%

Predict

74.2%

Opinion

99.8%

consensus

83%

-2.6%

spread

74.2-99.8%

(25.6pp)

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Aug 19

Aug 21

Aug 22

Aug 23

Aug 24

Aug 25

Aug 26

Vol.

$8k

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?

75%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 75¢ buys you 133 shares | Odds: 75% Total Payout: $133 | Net Profit: $33 Multiplier: 1.33x | ROI: 33% | APY: 129% 126 days to resolution
predict

Trade on Predict

At 74.2¢ buys you 135 shares | Odds: 74% Total Payout: $135 | Net Profit: $35 Multiplier: 1.35x | ROI: 35% | APY: 136% 126 days to resolution
opinion

Trade on Opinion

At 99.8¢ buys you 100 shares | Odds: 16% Total Payout: $100 | Net Profit: $0 Multiplier: 1.00x | ROI: 0.2% | APY: 0.58% 126 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
MUI X License key version mismatch
Total markets: 18

Intro

This market tracks whether 2026 will rank as the hottest year on record compared to all previously recorded years. The aggregated consensus probability that 2026 will be the hottest year stands at 70.5% across Opinion, Predict, and Polymarket. Resolution will be based on NASA's GISTEMP dataset. Watch the end of the betting period on December 31, 2026, for the final temperature data to be published.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms share identical resolution logic based on NASA's Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index.Primary resolution logic: NASA's GISTEMP dataset (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt)

Core resolution logic:

  • Years are ranked in descending order of temperature, with the hottest year as number 1.
  • If 2026 ties with another year, it takes the rank of the year it ties with.
  • The market resolves immediately when the data for 2026 becomes available.
  • If NASA does not provide data by March 1, 2027, the market resolves based on a consensus of credible reporting.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Data Revision: The market resolves immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of later revisions.
  • Tie Resolution: If 2026 ties with another year, it resolves according to the rank of the year it ties with.
Timing: The market will resolve immediately once the data for 2026 is available, or by March 1, 2027, if no data is provided by NASA.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Show more

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

Predict

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

Opinion

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the 2026 hottest year ranking market aggregates data from multiple platforms, showing real-time odds, volume of $3,424,708, and 24-hour volume of $4,102. It provides a consensus view of where traders across different venues expect 2026 to fall in the historical temperature rankings, helping users monitor market sentiment and shifts in expectations as new climate data emerges.

On Polymarket, traders currently price this market at 74.5%, reflecting a probabilistic take on where 2026 might land among past hot years. Analyst forecasts from major climate institutions often use different models and confidence intervals, sometimes yielding comparable or more conservative estimates. The market’s implied probability can diverge from these reports due to real-time trader reactions to emerging data, policy updates, and volatility in temperature trends.

On Polymarket and Opinion, prices can vary because each platform has its own user base, liquidity conditions, and trading dynamics. Polymarket and Opinion can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For instance, differing levels of public interest or media coverage can skew sentiment on one venue versus the other. Additionally, each market may have unique order books or fee structures that influence how traders hedge or speculate, leading to a spread of 27.5 between the two platforms.

This market resolves around Dec 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final ranking will depend on official temperature data released by recognized meteorological agencies, which compare 2026’s global average temperature against historical records to determine its exact position among the warmest years ever documented.

Key signals that could shift this market include monthly global temperature announcements from agencies like NOAA or Copernicus, major climate policy decisions, and unexpected extreme weather events that influence annual averages. Sudden shifts in El Niño or La Niña patterns, volcanic activity, or large-scale industrial changes could also affect traders’ expectations and move odds on either platform before Dec 31, 2026.