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Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Climate and Weather
polymarket

Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

Dec 29, 2025, 6:25 PM EST - Dec 30, 2026, 7:00 PM EST
Total volume:
$340,802
Volume 24h:
$0N/A
Liquidity:
$1,577
11%
Open interest:
$7,268N/A

Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

 - Polymarket

Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? - Polymarket

17%

+1%

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Aug 19

Aug 21

Aug 22

Aug 23

Aug 24

Aug 25

Aug 26

Vol.

$328.1

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

16%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 17¢ buys you 588 shares | Odds: 16% Total Payout: $588 | Net Profit: $488 Multiplier: 5.88x | ROI: 488% APY not meaningful 126 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
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MUI X License key version mismatch
Total markets: 1

Description

For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.

Polymarket

For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-money consensus from traders pricing in historical hurricane patterns, climate trends, and seasonal forecasts. Traditional meteorological analysts and the National Hurricane Center issue seasonal outlooks based on sea-surface temperatures, atmospheric conditions, and historical data. Market prices often incorporate analyst views but may diverge when traders weigh longer-term climate shifts or assign different tail-risk premiums. Comparing the two reveals whether markets are pricing in more or less hurricane risk than official seasonal guidance suggests.

On Polymarket, this event is priced at 16.0% probability, meaning traders collectively assess roughly a one-in-three chance of a Category 4 hurricane making US landfall before Dec 31, 2026. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price reflects the combined bets of all participants and updates continuously as new hurricane season data, climate models, and real-time storm activity influence trader expectations. Higher prices indicate greater confidence in a landfall; lower prices suggest skepticism about the likelihood within the timeframe.

The market resolves on Dec 31, 2026, marking the end of the forecast window. Resolution hinges on whether any hurricane reaching Category 4 intensity makes landfall on the US mainland before that date. Landfall is defined as the center of the storm crossing the US coastline while at Category 4 strength or higher. Historical records, National Hurricane Center advisories, and official storm reports serve as the basis for determining whether the event occurred, ensuring an objective and verifiable outcome.

Major catalysts include real-time tropical storm development, sea-surface temperature anomalies, atmospheric pressure patterns, and seasonal hurricane forecasts from NOAA and the National Hurricane Center. Any actual Category 4 hurricane formation in the Atlantic or Gulf of Mexico will sharply increase odds. Conversely, cooler ocean temperatures, strong wind shear, or a quiet season will lower them. Climate indices like the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and El Niño conditions also influence long-term hurricane activity and trader positioning throughout the forecast period.