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Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 9? Odds & Prediction Markets
Closed: Jun 9, 8:00 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 9 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect aggregated trader beliefs about Hong Kong's peak temperature on June 9, often incorporating real-time weather data and seasonal patterns. Analyst forecasts from meteorological services typically rely on deterministic climate models and historical June averages for Hong Kong. Market odds tend to update faster than traditional forecasts as new weather systems develop, while analysts may offer more detailed confidence intervals. Comparing the two reveals whether traders are pricing in tail risks or unusual weather patterns that formal forecasts may underweight.
On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, the highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 9 is priced through a set of discrete outcome contracts, each representing a specific temperature range or exact value. Traders buy and sell shares in each outcome, with the price of a share reflecting the market's implied probability that outcome will occur. As traders adjust positions based on weather forecasts, seasonal data, and real-time atmospheric conditions, prices shift continuously. The outcome with the highest share price represents the market's leading expectation for that day's peak temperature.
The market resolves on Jun 9, 2026, after June 9 has concluded and the highest temperature recorded in Hong Kong that day is confirmed. Resolution is determined by official temperature data from Hong Kong's meteorological authority or designated reference source. The outcome contract matching the recorded high temperature resolves to 100 cents, while all other contracts resolve to zero. This ensures traders' positions settle based on the actual observed weather event rather than forecasts or estimates.
Several factors could shift market odds for Hong Kong's June 9 high temperature. Tropical weather systems, monsoon patterns, or typhoon activity in the region would significantly alter expectations. Updated seasonal forecasts from meteorological agencies and real-time atmospheric pressure changes typically trigger repricing. Historical anomalies or climate oscillations like El Niño or La Niña conditions influence long-term temperature trends. As June 9 approaches, daily weather updates and short-range forecasts become primary drivers. Urban heat island effects and pollution levels in Hong Kong may also influence final temperature readings and trader positioning.
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