TOTAL VOLUME:

$116.1b

24H VOL:

$71,055,475

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,351,258,445

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,125,890,903

320,244

Markets across

31,392

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,562

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

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What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in September 2026?
🌟New
Commodities
kalshi
polymarket

What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in September 2026?

Total volume:
$98,491
Volume 24h:
$13,892
148%
Liquidity:
$1,912
0%
Open interest:
$62,746
13%

Above $4011.99

 - Kalshi

Above $4011.99 - Kalshi

100%

+4%

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

94%95%96%97%98%99%

Aug 18

Aug 19

Aug 20

Aug 21

Aug 23

Aug 24

Aug 25

Vol.

$257.9

·

Resolves Oct 1, 2026

Time left: 06d:10h:43m

kalshi

Kalshi

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Ends in
Result

Description

This event group tracks whether Gold (XAUUSD) will reach specific price levels in September 2026. The markets differ in their exact price thresholds and resolution methodologies across two platforms.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms resolve based on whether Gold reaches specified price levels during September 2026 trading sessions, though thresholds and precise measurement rules differ slightly.Primary resolution logic: Pyth for Polymarket; Kalshi closing prices for Kalshi

Core resolution logic:

  • Prices must be achieved during a trading session in September 2026
  • Polymarket uses Pyth 1-minute candle highs/lows; Kalshi uses closing prices on August 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT
  • If no trading occurs during the period, markets resolve to 'No'

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Contract specification changes: Polymarket may adjust resolution based on CME COMEX futures if Pyth data is unavailable
  • Trading holidays: Trading sessions may be adjusted for holidays affecting normal market hours
Timing: Resolution occurs after September 2026 trading sessions concludeOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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Polymarket

What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in September 2026?

Kalshi

Multiple threshold markets evaluate whether the closing price of a one-minute gold candlestick at 5:00 PM EDT on August 31, 2026 exceeds specified values. Each market resolves to 'Yes' if the price closes above its respective threshold. All markets share identical secondary rules: prices are rounded to two decimal places, with the closing price defined as the price at the end of the immediately preceding one-minute interval (e.g., the 4:59 PM candlestick closes at 5:00 PM). If no data is published for the specified time, the most recently available published data is used to resolve all markets.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, pricing can vary due to differences in user bases, liquidity, and listing design. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For example, one venue might have a more active retail trader base reacting quickly to news, while the other could see slower, institutional-style trading. These dynamics often create a spread of 3.0 between the two platforms, especially when market conditions shift rapidly ahead of major economic releases.

This market resolves around Oct 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final determination will hinge on widely available price data sources at the specified close time, ensuring an objective and transparent resolution process for all participants across platforms.

Key signals that could shift this market include central bank announcements on interest rates, inflation data releases, geopolitical tensions affecting safe-haven demand, and major shifts in currency strength. Updates to U.S. monetary policy or sudden changes in global risk appetite often drive rapid re-pricing in gold markets, and traders on Polymarket and Kalshi will react accordingly as new information emerges.