TOTAL VOLUME:

$114.3b

24H VOL:

$99,129,738

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,308,349,129

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,134,972,354

320,722

Markets across

31,437

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,942

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

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What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in August 2026?
Commodities
kalshi
polymarket

What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in August 2026?

Total volume:
$779,159
Volume 24h:
$74,771
19%
Liquidity:
$163,094
24%
Open interest:
$104,339
0%

↑ $4,600

 - Polymarket

↑ $4,600 - Polymarket

93.8%

+74.9%

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

0%20%40%60%80%

Aug 14

Aug 15

Aug 16

Aug 18

Aug 19

Aug 20

Aug 21

Vol.

$43.5k

·

Resolves Sep 1, 2026

Time left: 10d:18h:46m

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in August?

91%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 93.8¢ buys you 107 shares | Odds: 91% Total Payout: $107 | Net Profit: $7 Multiplier: 1.07x | ROI: 7% High Projected APY: 734% 10 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result

Intro

This market tracks whether Gold (XAUUSD) will reach a high of $4,600 at any point during August 2026. The aggregated consensus probability across Kalshi and Polymarket currently stands at 78.5%. Resolution will be determined using data from Pyth, with CME COMEX as a fallback if needed. The outcome will be settled after the end of the August 2026 trading period, with the final resolution date expected to be September 1, 2026. Watch for significant movements around major economic announcements or Federal Reserve policy decisions during August.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Settlement Value Mismatch / SKU RiskHero tip: Be cautious with Kalshi markets as they only consider a single specific timestamp, while Polymarket considers the entire month's trading activity. This creates a significant divergence in potential outcomes.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves if any 1-minute candle's high or low reaches or exceeds the listed price during any trading session in August 2026. Uses Pyth data, with CME COMEX as fallback. "This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during a trading session of August 2026, any 1-minute candle for Gold (XAUUSD) has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price."
  • Kalshi: Resolves based solely on the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on August 03, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT. "If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on August 03, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above [price] USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes."
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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Polymarket

What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in August 2026?

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the closing price of the one-minute candlestick for gold at 5:00 PM EDT on August 03, 2026. Each market has a unique threshold price, and if the closing price exceeds that threshold, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. The settlement value is rounded to the nearest two decimal places. The closing price for the candlestick timestamped 4:59 PM reflects trading activity from 4:59:00 PM to 4:59:59 PM and is officially recorded at 5:00:00 PM. If no data is published by the specified source agency for the exact time, the most recently available published data will be used to determine the resolution. This ensures consistency across all markets by relying on the same data source and methodology for price verification.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Gold price August 2026 market aggregates betting data across multiple venues, showing real-time consensus and volume trends. It tracks how traders on different platforms price the chance of gold reaching specific levels during August 2026. You can monitor overall engagement through metrics such as volume of $779,159 and 24-hour volume of $172,638, giving a snapshot of market interest and prediction shifts as the event approaches.

This market resolves around Sep 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result depends on whether gold hits the specified level during August 2026, as tracked by authoritative price sources. After verification, all platforms will finalize the result based on that confirmed data, settling all open positions accordingly.

Several signals could shift this market before it settles, including central bank announcements, inflation data releases, geopolitical tensions, and changes in currency strength. Events that affect global trade or investor risk appetite often influence gold prices. Traders will also watch key economic indicators and market volatility, all of which can adjust the probability estimates reflected in betting odds as August 2026 approaches.