TOTAL VOLUME:

$115.7b

24H VOL:

$102,810,712

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,340,574,887

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,135,300,235

309,236

Markets across

29,779

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,173

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

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What will Natural Gas (NG) hit Week of August 17 2026?
Commodities
kalshi
polymarket

What will Natural Gas (NG) hit Week of August 17 2026?

Volume:
$69,030

↑ $2.80

 - Polymarket

↑ $2.80 - Polymarket

100%

+61.5%

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

20%40%60%80%

Aug 16

Aug 17

Aug 18

Aug 18

Aug 19

Aug 20

Aug 23

Vol.

$5.7k

·

Resolved Aug 22, 2026

Closed: Aug 19, 8:41 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
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Result

Description

This event group tracks whether Natural Gas (NG) prices will reach specific thresholds during the week of August 17, 2026. The markets differ in their criteria for resolution, with Kalshi focusing on the closing price of a specific candlestick and Polymarket focusing on the high price achieved during trading sessions.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Settlement Value Mismatch — Different criteria for determining whether Natural Gas prices 'hit' specified thresholdsHero tip: Trade cautiously — a market that triggers on Polymarket may not trigger on Kalshi, and vice versa. Focus on the specific resolution rules for each platform before placing trades.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Resolves based on the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on August 21, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT. If the close price is above the specified threshold, the market resolves to Yes.
  • Polymarket: Resolves if, at any point during a trading session of the week of August 17, 2026, any 1-minute candle for the Active Month of Natural Gas futures has a final "High" price equal to or beyond the listed price. Only prices achieved during applicable trading sessions are considered.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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Polymarket

What will Natural Gas (NG) hit Week of August 17 2026?

Kalshi

The market resolves based on the closing price of the natural gas 1-minute candlestick at 5:00 PM EDT on August 21, 2026. If the price exceeds any specified threshold, the corresponding market resolves to 'Yes'; otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. Settlement uses the nearest listed contract month, switching to the next contract five business days before the current contract's last trading day. Prices are rounded to the nearest three decimal places, with the closing price defined as the price at the end of the immediately preceding one-minute interval. If data is unavailable at the specified time, the most recently published data determines the outcome.

Frequently asked questions

The Natural Gas price market dashboard aggregates predictions across multiple venues, showing how traders price the likelihood of specific price levels being reached during the week of August 17 2026. It displays consensus odds and volume of $69,030, letting users compare expectations from Polymarket and Kalshi in real time. This unified view helps participants spot trends and shifts in market sentiment as the event date approaches.

On Polymarket and Kalshi, pricing mechanisms, user bases, and liquidity can lead to variance. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For instance, differing trading volumes — $69,030 across all venues versus $32,522 in the last day — may amplify small order flows into larger price moves on one platform. Additionally, each venue may attract distinct trader demographics, causing temporary divergence in implied probabilities until information equilibrates.

Key signals include weather forecasts affecting storage injections, geopolitical tensions influencing supply flows, and unexpected storage reports showing inventory builds or draws. Any sudden supply glut or demand spike — for instance, from prolonged heat or plant outages — could rapidly shift probabilities in this market. Tracking energy news sources and weekly EIA reports will be essential for anticipating price swings.