TOTAL VOLUME:

$114.4b

24H VOL:

$124,347,303

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,317,299,577

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,155,665,871

322,244

Markets across

31,911

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,982

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

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VS.

Kalshi:

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Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on August 24?
🌟New
polymarket
kalshi

Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on August 24?

Aug 21, 2026, 8:01 AM EST - Aug 24, 2026, 5:00 PM EST
Total volume:
$66
Volume 24h:
$0N/A
Liquidity:
$84
0%
Open interest:
$66N/A

Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on August 24?

 - Polymarket

Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on August 24? - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Aug 24, 2026

Time left: 03d:05h:13m

Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on August 24?

51%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 53¢ buys you 189 shares | Odds: 51% Total Payout: $189 | Net Profit: $89 Multiplier: 1.89x | ROI: 89% APY not meaningful Low liquidity 3 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on August 24?

Trade
51%
Yes 53¢No 52¢
5¢
$84
$66
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 5h 13m
active
kalshi

Above $4398

Trade
N/A
N/A
23¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 5h 13m
active
kalshi

Above $4628

Trade
N/A
N/A
1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 5h 13m
active
kalshi

Above $4638

Trade
N/A
N/A
1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 5h 13m
active
kalshi

Above $4418

Trade
N/A
N/A
29¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 5h 13m
active
kalshi

Above $4458

Trade
N/A
N/A
4¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 5h 13m
active
kalshi

Above $4548

Trade
N/A
N/A
4¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 5h 13m
active
kalshi

Above $4558

Trade
N/A
N/A
4¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 5h 13m
active
kalshi

Above $4588

Trade
N/A
N/A
3¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 5h 13m
active
kalshi

Above $4598

Trade
N/A
N/A
1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 5h 13m
active
kalshi

Above $4768

Trade
N/A
N/A
29¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 5h 13m
active
kalshi

Above $4778

Trade
N/A
N/A
26¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 5h 13m
active
kalshi

Above $4438

Trade
N/A
N/A
36¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 5h 13m
active
kalshi

Above $4468

Trade
N/A
N/A
4¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 5h 13m
active
kalshi

Above $4498

Trade
N/A
N/A
2¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 5h 13m
active
kalshi

Above $4528

Trade
N/A
N/A
4¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 5h 13m
active
kalshi

Above $4648

Trade
N/A
N/A
4¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 5h 13m
active
kalshi

Above $4668

Trade
N/A
N/A
4¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 5h 13m
active
kalshi

Above $4728

Trade
N/A
N/A
4¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 5h 13m
active
kalshi

Above $4738

Trade
N/A
N/A
4¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 5h 13m
active
kalshi

Above $4448

Trade
N/A
N/A
20¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 5h 13m
active
kalshi

Above $4698

Trade
N/A
N/A
4¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 5h 13m
active
kalshi

Above $4718

Trade
N/A
N/A
4¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 5h 13m
active
kalshi

Above $4578

Trade
N/A
N/A
2¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 5h 13m
active
kalshi

Above $4688

Trade
N/A
N/A
4¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 5h 13m
active
Total markets: 25 of 41

Description

This event group tracks whether the closing price of Gold (XAUUSD) on August 24, 2026 will be higher or lower than the closing price on the most recent prior trading day. The outcome depends on precise price comparisons and adherence to specific trading day schedules.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms use the same core logic comparing the closing price of Gold on August 24, 2026 to the prior trading day's close, with identical tie and non-trading day handling.Primary resolution logic: Pyth

Core resolution logic:

  • Resolve to "Up" if August 24, 2026 close > prior trading day close
  • Resolve to "Down" if August 24, 2026 close < prior trading day close
  • Resolve 50-50 if prices are equal or no trading occurs

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Non-trading day handling: If August 24 or the prior day is not a trading day per Pyth's schedule, the market resolves 50-50
  • Missing Pyth data: If Pyth lacks a valid close for either day, use the last valid price before 4:59 PM ET for that day, or fall back to CME COMEX futures if Pyth data is unavailable
Timing: Resolves after the market close on August 24, 2026, using Pyth's official closing prices for that day and the prior trading dayOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on August 24, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on August 24, 2026 is lower than the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless Friday were not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, in which case it would refer to the next most recent prior trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Gold (XAUUSD) does not trade at all during the relevant trading session, the market will resolve 50-50. Trading days will be determined according to the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours trading-hours as listed on Pyth. If a listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. For each trading day, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET on that date. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved prior to 4:59 PM ET during that trading day as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the closing price for that day may be determined using the official daily close price of the CME COMEX Gold Futures (GC) futures contract for that trading day. Only prices achieved during the applicable trading session will be considered. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAU%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Kalshi

The event resolves based on the closing price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold at 5:00 PM EDT on August 24, 2026. If the price exceeds any of the specified thresholds—ranging from $4,398 to $4,788 per troy ounce—the corresponding market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. The settlement price is rounded to the nearest two decimal places and represents the price at the end of the minute preceding the timestamp (e.g., the 4:59 PM candlestick closes at 5:00 PM). If data for the exact time is unavailable, the most recent published price is used. All markets share these core mechanics but differ only in their threshold values.

Frequently asked questions

The gold price movement market dashboard aggregates activity across multiple venues, giving you a live view of how traders across platforms see the short-term direction of gold. It shows the current consensus and volume trends for the gold price movement market, letting you compare expectations and spot shifts in market sentiment as the event date approaches.

Analyst forecasts for the gold price movement market often weigh macroeconomic indicators like interest rates and inflation. Prediction market odds, however, reflect real-time trader sentiment and can shift quickly with news. Currently, markets show a balanced outlook, with no strong skew toward higher or lower prices. This contrast means prediction markets may over- or under-react to certain signals compared to traditional forecasts, offering a different perspective on market direction.

This market resolves around Aug 24, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final price point is compared against the defined threshold, and the result is settled automatically based on transparent, publicly available data.

Key events that could shift this market include major central bank announcements, especially regarding interest rates, as these affect dollar strength and gold appeal. Geopolitical tensions or sudden economic data releases — such as inflation surprises — may also drive volatility. Traders will watch U.S. Federal Reserve communications closely in the weeks ahead, as any shift in monetary policy expectations can rapidly alter expectations for gold prices before Aug 24, 2026.