TOTAL VOLUME:

$114.8b

24H VOL:

$125,946,575

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,317,581,230

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,176,824,706

331,810

Markets across

32,587

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,017

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

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What will Natural Gas (NG) hit in August 2026?
Commodities
kalshi
predict
polymarket

What will Natural Gas (NG) hit in August 2026?

Total volume:
$229,644
Volume 24h:
$5,721
51%
Liquidity:
$143,158
23%
Open interest:
$26,659
0%

↓ $2.20

all

2 markets

Predict

99.8%

Polymarket

6.7%

consensus

53.3%

+43.4%

spread

6.7-99.8%

(93.1pp)

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

0%20%40%60%80%

Aug 15

Aug 16

Aug 17

Aug 18

Aug 19

Aug 21

Aug 22

Vol.

$3.9k

·

Resolves Sep 1, 2026

Time left: 09d:23h:37m

Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.20 in August?

100%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
predict

Trade on Predict

At 99.8¢ buys you 100 shares | Odds: 100% Total Payout: $100 | Net Profit: $0 Multiplier: 1.00x | ROI: 0.2% | APY: 8% Low liquidity 9 days to resolution
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 6.7¢ buys you 1,493 shares | Odds: 4% Total Payout: $1,493 | Net Profit: $1,393 Multiplier: 14.93x | ROI: 1,393% APY not meaningful Low liquidity 9 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result

Description

This event group tracks whether Natural Gas (NG) futures prices will reach specific high or low thresholds during trading sessions in August 2026. Markets resolve based on 1-minute candle data from the Active Month contract, using Pyth as the primary data source.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms use identical price thresholds, identical timeframes (August 2026 trading sessions), and identical data sources (Pyth 1-minute candles with CME fallback). The only consistent difference is Kalshi's use of close prices rather than highs/lows, creating divergent markets that cannot be directly compared.Primary resolution logic: Pyth 1-minute candle data for Active Month Natural Gas futures (https://pythdata.app/explore?search=NGD)

Core resolution logic:

  • Markets resolve to 'Yes' if any 1-minute candle's high (upward thresholds) or low (downward thresholds) equals or exceeds the listed price during August 2026 trading sessions
  • Trading sessions follow standard CME schedules: open 6:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00 PM ET Friday, with daily breaks
  • Active Month contract changes at the start of the second trading session prior to the contract's last trading session
  • If Pyth data is unavailable, official daily high/low prices from CME Group determine resolution

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Active Month Change: For the final three trading sessions of the nearest listed contract, the next month's contract becomes active — resolution uses that contract's prices
  • Last Trading Day: Defined as the third last business day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month — affects which contract is active
  • Data Unavailability: If Pyth fails, CME Group's official daily high/low prices are used to verify threshold attainment
Timing: Resolution occurs after August 2026 trading sessions conclude, using verified Pyth or CME dataOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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Polymarket

What will Natural Gas (NG) hit in August 2026?

Kalshi

Settlement is determined by the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas using the NGDU6 contract on July 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT. The settlement value is based on the nearest listed contract month, rolling forward to the next contract 5 business days before the current contract's last trading day. For example, if the May 2026 contract's last trading day is April 28, the active month switches from May to June 5 business days prior to the expiry date. The settlement contract is named after its delivery month per standard exchange symbology, not its expiration date. The settlement value is rounded to the nearest 3 decimal places. The close price for a 1-minute candlestick at a given time represents the price at the end of the immediately preceding one-minute interval; for example, the candlestick timestamped 4:59 PM reflects trading during 4:59:00 PM to 4:59:59 PM and closes at 5:00:00 PM. If no data is published by the specified source agency for the specified time, the most recently available published data will be used to resolve the market.

Predict

What will Natural Gas (NG) hit in August 2026?

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Natural Gas August 2026 market aggregates data from multiple venues, showing real-time odds, volume, and consensus across Polymarket and Kalshi. It provides a unified view of trader sentiment toward whether Natural Gas prices will hit specific levels during August 2026. This cross-platform tracking helps users monitor market momentum and compare expectations, with total volume at $229,644 and 24-hour volume at $16,808.

This market resolves around Sep 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Traders will watch August 2026 price action closely, as the market settles based on whether Natural Gas meets the defined threshold during that month.

Several factors could shift expectations for this market before Sep 1, 2026. Supply disruptions — whether from geopolitical tensions, production outages, or infrastructure issues — might boost prices. Conversely, inventory builds, milder-than-expected weather patterns, or increased output from major producers could depress them. Macroeconomic data like inflation reports, interest rate decisions, and global demand trends also play a role. Traders will watch storage reports, export figures, and any policy changes that affect supply or demand dynamics.