TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.5b

24H VOL:

$271,200,656

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2,984,640,614

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$1,922,627,141

420,368

Markets across

40,352

events

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4,484

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

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63%

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Where will it rain this weekend (Oct 24 - Oct 25)?
kalshi

Where will it rain this weekend (Oct 24 - Oct 25)?

Volume:
$196,781

Minneapolis

 - Kalshi

Minneapolis - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 27, 2026

Closed: Oct 26, 2:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Minneapolis

View
100%
30%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$14,473
N/A
N/A
$8,372
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Miami

View
100%
4%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$8,703
N/A
N/A
$6,379
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Seattle

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$6,712
N/A
N/A
$3,773
Settled
Yes
kalshi

West Palm Beach

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,778
N/A
N/A
$2,073
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Albuquerque

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,716
N/A
N/A
$2,449
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Denver

View
0%
25%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$25,628
N/A
N/A
$8,645
Settled
No
kalshi

New York City

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,773
N/A
N/A
$10,432
Settled
No
kalshi

Los Angeles

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,661
N/A
N/A
$5,444
Settled
No
kalshi

Tampa

View
0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,022
N/A
N/A
$4,024
Settled
No
kalshi

Philadelphia

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,575
N/A
N/A
$10,359
Settled
No
kalshi

Chicago

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,058
N/A
N/A
$6,581
Settled
No
kalshi

San Antonio

View
0%
8%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,390
N/A
N/A
$4,737
Settled
No
kalshi

Las Vegas

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,719
N/A
N/A
$4,352
Settled
No
kalshi

Washington DC

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,410
N/A
N/A
$3,524
Settled
No
kalshi

Newark

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,358
N/A
N/A
$5,279
Settled
No
kalshi

Springfield

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,488
N/A
N/A
$1,982
Settled
No
kalshi

Houston

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,433
N/A
N/A
$3,081
Settled
No
kalshi

Boston

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,023
N/A
N/A
$3,159
Settled
No
kalshi

Providence

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,364
N/A
N/A
$2,518
Settled
No
kalshi

Phoenix

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,320
N/A
N/A
$2,589
Settled
No
kalshi

Indianapolis

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,305
N/A
N/A
$2,705
Settled
No
kalshi

Atlanta

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,172
N/A
N/A
$3,117
Settled
No
kalshi

College Station

View
0%
20%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,150
N/A
N/A
$2,211
Settled
No
kalshi

Austin

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,832
N/A
N/A
$2,732
Settled
No
kalshi

Trenton

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,648
N/A
N/A
$2,630
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 35

Description

This event tracks whether measurable rainfall will occur in various U.S. cities over a specific weekend. Each location has its own criteria for resolving the outcome based on precipitation data from official sources.

Kalshi

Each market evaluates whether any measurable precipitation occurs in a specified U.S. city during the weekend of October 24–25, 2026. For a market to resolve as "Yes," the total precipitation recorded at the designated weather station for that city must exceed zero inches on at least one day within the period. "Trace" amounts and missing data are treated as zero inches. All outcomes rely on official data from the Weather Company, accessed via weather.com/kalshi, ensuring consistency across markets despite variations in third-party weather forecasts. The evaluation window covers both days of the weekend, and any positive measurement—no matter how small—triggers a "Yes" resolution. This structure applies uniformly across all 35 markets, each tied to a specific city and its corresponding weather station identifier.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the weekend rainfall market tracks the current odds of rain falling in various locations this weekend. You’ll find a price history showing how those odds have shifted over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $91,353. This allows you to see how actively traders are engaging with this market and where the most recent sentiment lies. The total volume traded to date is $196,781, providing a sense of overall interest in predicting rainfall patterns.

Comparing prediction market odds to those of traditional weather analysts reveals interesting insights. While analysts often rely on complex models and historical data, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, reflecting real-time perceptions of potential rainfall. Often, the market will align with expert forecasts, but divergences can occur as new information emerges or as traders incorporate subjective factors. It’s a dynamic comparison, with this market constantly adjusting as conditions evolve and new data becomes available.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing the probability of rain. The price of a contract reflects the market’s collective belief about the likelihood of the event occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the price converges towards what the market deems a fair representation of the probability. The current price indicates the implied probability, and changes in volume and trading activity directly influence price movements.

This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on whether measurable precipitation is recorded in the specified locations during the designated weekend timeframe. The determination will rely on official weather data from recognized meteorological sources, ensuring an objective and verifiable result. The market will then settle based on whether rain occurred as predicted.

Several signals could significantly impact this market. Changes in short-term weather forecasts, particularly those issued by the National Weather Service, will likely drive price fluctuations. Unexpected shifts in jet stream patterns or the development of a low-pressure system could also cause traders to reassess probabilities. Even news reports about potential storms or drought conditions could influence trading activity, leading to movements in the odds. Increased volume as the weekend approaches will also likely amplify any price swings.