TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

24H VOL:

$323,326,361

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,969,435,260

419,363

Markets across

40,411

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above ___ on November 2?
polymarket
kalshi

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above ___ on November 2?

Total volume:
$387,412
Volume 24h:
$312,907
946%
Liquidity:
$25,858
7%
Open interest:
$226,112
440%

Above $95.49

 - Kalshi

Above $95.49 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 2, 2026

Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 95.49 USD/Bbl on Nov 2, 2026?

99%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 99¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 99% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 1% | APY: N/A Illiquid market
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above $95.49

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$18,782
1,664%
N/A
$9,121
0d 0h 0m
Active
kalshi

Above $93.99

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,795
2,498%
N/A
$7,659
0d 0h 0m
Active
kalshi

Above $94.99

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,901
1,867%
N/A
$4,211
0d 0h 0m
Active
kalshi

Above $94.49

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,063
921%
N/A
$2,421
0d 0h 0m
Active
kalshi

Above $92.99

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,302
668%
N/A
$1,955
0d 0h 0m
Active
kalshi

Above $93.49

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$949
216%
N/A
$937
0d 0h 0m
Active
kalshi

Above $90.99

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$776
159%
N/A
$776
0d 0h 0m
Active
kalshi

Above $91.49

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$725
142%
N/A
$600
0d 0h 0m
Active
kalshi

Above $90.49

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$702
133%
N/A
$696
0d 0h 0m
Active
kalshi

Above $95.99

Trade
98%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$23,834
30,070%
N/A
$4,015
0d 0h 0m
Active
kalshi

Above $91.99

Trade
98%
1%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$812
171%
N/A
$612
0d 0h 0m
Active
kalshi

Above $92.49

Trade
95%
4%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$386
29%
N/A
$386
0d 0h 0m
Active
polymarket

$109

Trade
14%
11%
Yes 100¢No 50¢
—
$2,308
$213
194%
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
Disputed
kalshi

Above $108.99

Trade
2%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$294
0%
N/A
$54
0d 0h 0m
Active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
N/A
Yes 100¢No 75¢
Avg: 100¢Max: 100¢
kalshi

Above $96.49

Trade
9%
87%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$21,823
57,329%
N/A
$10,625
0d 0h 0m
Active
polymarket

$101

Trade
7%
46%
Yes 100¢No 50¢
—
$2,278
$1,212
178%
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
Disputed
kalshi

Above $100.99

Trade
4%
55%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$29,737
1,037%
N/A
$22,448
0d 0h 0m
Active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
N/A
Yes 100¢No 75¢
Avg: 100¢Max: 100¢
polymarket

$102

Trade
7%
30%
Yes 100¢No 50¢
—
$2,298
$1,107
809%
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
Disputed
kalshi

Above $101.99

Trade
1%
36%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,828
97%
N/A
$3,525
0d 0h 0m
Active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
N/A
Yes 100¢No 75¢
Avg: 100¢Max: 100¢
kalshi

Above $108.49

Trade
5%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$365
0%
N/A
$231
0d 0h 0m
Active
kalshi

Above $100.49

Trade
4%
61%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$16,861
330%
N/A
$9,180
0d 0h 0m
Active
kalshi

Above $109.49

Trade
4%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$175
0%
N/A
$147
0d 0h 0m
Active
kalshi

Above $101.49

Trade
3%
42%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,519
170%
N/A
$4,235
0d 0h 0m
Active
kalshi

Above $106.99

Trade
2%
1%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,776
62%
N/A
$2,379
0d 0h 0m
Active
polymarket

$107

Trade
0%
2%
Yes 100¢No 50¢
—
$2,308
$727
20%
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
Disputed
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
N/A
Yes 100¢No 75¢
Avg: 100¢Max: 100¢
Total markets: 25 of 51

Description

These markets ask whether WTI Crude Oil will close above a specified price on November 2, 2026. The price thresholds vary across different markets, ranging from $95.49 to $109.99. Resolution depends on the daily settlement price of the December 2026 WTI crude oil contract.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The markets differ in the specific WTI crude oil contract used for settlement (December 2026 vs. Active Month) and the price thresholds.Hero tip: Carefully consider the contract month and price threshold when trading these markets. The Active Month contract on Polymarket may shift before November 2nd, impacting resolution.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves based on the Active Month WTI Crude Futures contract (ICE Futures Europe) closing price above a specified price on November 2, 2026, using Pyth data. The Active Month contract can change before the resolution date.
  • Kalshi: Resolves based on the December 2026 contract WTI crude oil closing price above a specified price on November 2, 2026. The contract remains fixed.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above ___ on November 2?

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the daily settlement price of the December 2026 WTI crude oil contract on November 2, 2026. Each market has a unique threshold price; if the settlement price exceeds the respective threshold, the market resolves to 'Yes,' otherwise to 'No.' Settlement uses the nearest listed contract month, rolling forward two business days before the current contract's last trading day. Prices are rounded to the nearest two decimal places. If data is unavailable for the specified date, the most recently published price is used for resolution.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard aggregates trading activity to provide a consensus view on whether the WTI crude oil market will close above a specified price on Nov 2, 2026. Currently, the combined volume across both platforms is $387,412, with $312,576 traded in the last 24 hours. Polymarket currently favors a price above the threshold at 14.1%, while Kalshi leans toward a price below at 99.0%. This allows traders to assess market sentiment and make informed predictions about future oil prices.

Prediction market prices often reflect a 'wisdom of the crowd' that can differ from individual analyst forecasts. While analysts may have specific models and biases, this market incorporates the aggregated opinions of many traders, potentially leading to more accurate predictions. It's important to note that prediction markets are forward-looking, representing expectations about future events, whereas analyst forecasts can be based on current data and may not fully account for unforeseen circumstances. Comparing the implied probability in this market to consensus analyst estimates can offer a valuable perspective on market sentiment.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Differences in trading volume, user base, and platform-specific rules can contribute to price discrepancies between Polymarket and Kalshi. For example, differing liquidity levels can lead to price slippage on one platform versus the other. Additionally, the types of traders active on each platform may vary, influencing their collective assessment of the likelihood of the outcome. Currently, Polymarket currently favors WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $109 on November 2? at 14.1%, while Kalshi leans toward Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 95.49 USD/Bbl on Nov 2, 2026? at 99.0%.

This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final price of WTI crude oil will be assessed against the predetermined threshold to determine whether the market settles in favor of the outcome that the price closes above the specified level. Traders should monitor relevant news sources and commodity price data as the resolution date approaches to stay informed about potential market movements.

Several factors could significantly impact the price of WTI crude oil and, consequently, this market. Geopolitical events, such as conflicts in oil-producing regions or changes in OPEC+ production policies, are major catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global economic growth and demand, can also influence prices. Unexpected supply disruptions, like refinery outages or pipeline issues, could cause price spikes, while a stronger US dollar generally puts downward pressure on oil prices. Traders should closely watch these indicators as Nov 2, 2026 approaches.