TOTAL VOLUME:

$147.3b

24H VOL:

$160,757,820

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,798,566,680

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,796,460,506

516,586

Markets across

38,144

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,845

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Fed decision in Dec 2026?
kalshi

Fed decision in Dec 2026?

Sep 29, 2025, 10:00 AM EST - Dec 9, 2026, 2:05 PM EST
Total volume:
$1,337,727
Volume 24h:
$18,722
20%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$954,779
2%

Hike 25bps

 - Kalshi

Hike 25bps - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 9, 2026

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting?

72%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 72¢ buys you 139 shares | Odds: 72% Total Payout: $139 | Net Profit: $39 Multiplier: 1.39x | ROI: 39% High Projected APY: 1,182% 46 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Hike 25bps

Trade
72%
Yes 72¢No 29¢
1¢
N/A
$256,703
0.25%
5%
$154,086
1mo 2w 2d
active
kalshi

Fed maintains rate

Trade
23%
2%
Yes 24¢No 77¢
1¢
N/A
$421,454
2%
12%
$262,901
1mo 2w 2d
active
kalshi

Hike >25bps

Trade
5%
1%
Yes 6¢No 96¢
2¢
N/A
$293,913
1%
5%
$214,097
1mo 2w 2d
active
kalshi

Cut 25bps

Trade
2%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$227,976
2%
6%
$194,352
1mo 2w 2d
active
kalshi

Cut >25bps

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$137,682
3%
6%
$129,344
1mo 2w 2d
active
Total markets: 5

Intro

This market tracks whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points at their December 2026 meeting. Currently, the probability of a 25bps hike on Kalshi is 73.0%, while the probability of no hike is 23.0%. Resolution will occur based on whether the Federal Reserve enacts a 25bps hike on December 09, 2026, as determined by the Federal Reserve’s official announcement. Traders should closely watch the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data in November 2026, as it will likely heavily influence expectations heading into the December meeting.

Kalshi

The Federal Reserve will announce its policy decision on December 9, 2026. Resolution depends on the actual change in the federal funds rate target announced by the Fed. The outcomes are mutually exclusive: only one can resolve to Yes. Possible outcomes include cuts greater than 25 basis points, a 25 basis point cut, maintaining the current rate, a 25 basis point hike, or a hike greater than 25 basis points. If the scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, the "Fed maintains rate" outcome will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, it's important to note that prediction market odds reflect the collective wisdom of traders on Kalshi, and may differ from traditional analyst forecasts. When comparing to polls and analyst expectations, it's often observed that this market can provide a distinct perspective on the probability of the Fed’s actions. Analysts frequently publish rate hike projections, but this market incorporates a broader range of information and real-time adjustments based on evolving economic data and sentiment. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies and the dynamic nature of prediction markets.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust to reflect the collective assessment of the Federal Reserve’s December 2026 decision. The market depth and trading volume indicate the level of conviction behind each potential outcome. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable trades are rewarded.

This market resolves around Dec 9, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the official announcement from the Federal Reserve regarding their decision at the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The outcome will reflect whether the Federal Reserve raises, lowers, or holds steady the federal funds rate. The final price of contracts on Kalshi will reflect the realized outcome of the Fed’s decision.

Several economic indicators and geopolitical events could significantly influence this market. Key factors include inflation data (CPI, PPI), employment reports (non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate), GDP growth, and statements from Federal Reserve officials. Unexpected shifts in these indicators, or unforeseen global events impacting the US economy, could lead to substantial price movements. Changes in market sentiment regarding the overall economic outlook, or a shift in expectations about the Fed’s policy stance, would also likely impact trading activity and the probabilities reflected in this market.