TOTAL VOLUME:

$149.7b

24H VOL:

$109,714,070

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,820,087,997

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,739,090,488

444,140

Markets across

34,296

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,700

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
polymarket

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM EST - Dec 9, 2026, 6:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$493,344
Volume 24h:
$17,886
31%
Liquidity:
$310,361
11%
Open interest:
$100,215N/A

Hike–Pause–Hike

 - Polymarket

Hike–Pause–Hike - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 9, 2026

Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?

74%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 75¢ buys you 133 shares | Odds: 74% Total Payout: $133 | Net Profit: $33 Multiplier: 1.33x | ROI: 33% High Projected APY: 987% 44 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Hike–Pause–Hike

Trade
74%
1%
Yes 75¢No 27¢
2¢
$59,847
$124,765
7%
45%
N/A
1mo 2w
active
polymarket

Hike–Pause–Pause

Trade
21%
Yes 22¢No 80¢
2¢
$61,770
$139,763
2%
51%
N/A
1mo 2w
active
polymarket

Hike–Hike–Hike

Trade
2%
Yes 2.3¢No 98.6¢
0.9¢
$66,450
$107,023
1%
13%
N/A
1mo 2w
active
polymarket

Hike–Hike–Pause

Trade
1%
Yes 2.4¢No 99.6¢
2¢
$61,149
$66,461
0.2%
23%
N/A
1mo 2w
active
polymarket

Other

Trade
1%
Yes 1.7¢No 99.4¢
1.1¢
$61,143
$32,946
9%
33%
N/A
1mo 2w
active
polymarket

Pause–Pause–Pause

View
0%
8%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15,589
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 2w
No
polymarket

Pause–Hike–Pause

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,696
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 2w
No
polymarket

Pause–Pause–Hike

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,086
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 2w
No
polymarket

Pause–Hike–Hike

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,015
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 2w
No
Total markets: 9

Intro

This market tracks whether the Federal Reserve will implement a “Hike–Pause–Hike” or “Hike–Pause–Pause” sequence of interest rate adjustments across its September, October, and December meetings. Currently, Polymarket gives a 74.0% probability to the “Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike” outcome, and a 21.0% probability to the “Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause” outcome. Resolution will be based on decisions published by the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. Traders should closely watch the outcome of the December 12-13, 2023 FOMC meeting, as this will define the first decision in the sequence and significantly influence the market’s trajectory.

Polymarket

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

Frequently asked questions

Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts regarding the Federal Reserve’s future actions. While analysts often publish rate hike probabilities and economic projections, this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders actively putting capital at risk. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information access, biases, or interpretations of economic data. It's worth noting that this market's implied probabilities are constantly updated based on new information and trader behavior, potentially offering a more dynamic assessment than static analyst reports.

On Polymarket, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, where traders can buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the outcome of the Federal Reserve’s decisions. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth and trading activity influence price fluctuations, and traders adjust their positions based on incoming economic data and news events. This creates a dynamic pricing mechanism that attempts to accurately reflect the collective expectation of the Federal Reserve’s policy path.

This market resolves around Dec 9, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the Federal Reserve’s official announcements regarding interest rate decisions made between September and December. The specific details of the decisions—whether they involve rate hikes, pauses, or cuts—will determine the winning outcome in this market. Traders will have until the resolution date to adjust their positions based on the latest information and their expectations for the Federal Reserve’s actions.

Several key signals and events could significantly move this market. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports (CPI and PPI), employment figures, and GDP growth, will heavily influence trader sentiment. Unexpected statements from Federal Reserve officials, including speeches and press conferences, can also trigger rapid price adjustments. Geopolitical events and shifts in global economic conditions could also play a role. Any indication of a change in the Federal Reserve’s outlook on the economy or its monetary policy strategy is likely to have a substantial impact on the Federal Reserve policy market.