TOTAL VOLUME:

$124b

24H VOL:

$82,345,145

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,121,338,658

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,285,568,173

364,467

Markets across

33,191

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,073

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

41%

VS.

Kalshi:

59%

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Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
kalshi
polymarket

What will Fed decisions be by Dec 9, 2026?

Total volume:
$167,651
Volume 24h:
$4,631
532%
Liquidity:
$66,549
15%
Open interest:
$116,116
2%

Fed maintains rate

 - Kalshi

Fed maintains rate - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 9, 2026

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their December 2026 meeting?

49%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 48¢ buys you 208 shares | Odds: 49% Total Payout: $208 | Net Profit: $108 Multiplier: 2.08x | ROI: 108% High Projected APY: 1,862% 90 days to resolution
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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Fed maintains rate

Trade
49%
Yes 48¢No 57¢
5¢
N/A
$51,521
0.52%
44%
$44,254
3mo
active
kalshi

Hike 25bps

Trade
43%
Yes 43¢No 59¢
2¢
N/A
$23,844
0%
5%
$14,316
3mo
active
polymarket

Pause–Pause–Pause

Trade
32%
1%
Yes 33¢No 70¢
3¢
$5,840
$11,754
6%
26,020%
N/A
3mo
active
polymarket

Hike–Pause–Pause

Trade
15%
1%
Yes 16¢No 86¢
2¢
$7,386
$569
9%
316%
N/A
3mo
active
polymarket

Hike–Hike–Pause

Trade
13%
1%
Yes 13¢No 88¢
1¢
$7,858
$474
0%
594%
N/A
3mo
active
polymarket

Hike–Pause–Hike

Trade
11%
Yes 11¢No 90¢
1¢
$7,792
$329
0%
139%
N/A
3mo
active
polymarket

Other

Trade
7%
Yes 8¢No 94¢
2¢
$8,758
$294
9%
740%
N/A
3mo
active
polymarket

Pause–Pause–Hike

Trade
7%
1%
Yes 8¢No 95¢
3¢
$8,679
$623
0.71%
489%
N/A
3mo
active
kalshi

Cut 25bps

Trade
6%
1%
Yes 6¢No 97¢
3¢
N/A
$36,959
0.52%
18%
$25,140
3mo
active
polymarket

Hike–Hike–Hike

Trade
6%
Yes 7¢No 96¢
3¢
$8,015
$231
0%
359%
N/A
3mo
active
polymarket

Pause–Hike–Hike

Trade
5%
2%
Yes 8.7¢No 99¢
7.7¢
$6,638
$914
151%
2,511%
N/A
3mo
active
polymarket

Pause–Hike–Pause

Trade
3%
5%
Yes 5.7¢No 99¢
4.7¢
$5,581
$1,026
180%
1,864%
N/A
3mo
active
kalshi

Hike >25bps

Trade
3%
Yes 3¢No 98¢
1¢
N/A
$18,337
14%
30%
$15,504
3mo
active
kalshi

Cut >25bps

Trade
2%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$20,776
0%
38%
$16,902
3mo
active
Total markets: 14

Description

This group forecasts the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions – specifically interest rate hikes, pauses, or cuts – across three FOMC meetings: September, October, and December. These markets aim to predict the direction of US monetary policy based on the Fed's official announcements.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi markets resolve on a single December meeting, while Polymarket markets resolve on a sequence of three meetings (Sep-Oct-Dec).Hero tip: If you believe a rate change will occur in December, but the preceding meetings are uncertain, Kalshi may be a more suitable market. If you have a strong view on the entire sequence, focus on Polymarket.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves based on the specific sequence of decisions (Hike-Pause-Hike, etc.) across the September, October, and December FOMC meetings. Any rate cut will resolve to 'Other'.
  • Kalshi: Resolves to 'Yes' if *any* hike, pause, or cut occurs at the December 9, 2026, FOMC meeting. It doesn't consider the prior meetings.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

Kalshi

The Federal Reserve will announce its policy decision on December 9, 2026. Resolution depends on the actual change in the federal funds rate target announced by the Fed. The outcomes are mutually exclusive: only one can resolve to Yes. Possible outcomes include cuts greater than 25 basis points, a 25 basis point cut, maintaining the current rate, a 25 basis point hike, or a hike greater than 25 basis points. If the scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, the "Fed maintains rate" outcome will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the collective prediction on the Federal Reserve policy market, aggregating data from both venues to provide a consensus view. Currently, the aggregated volume is $167,651, with $4,616 traded in the last 24 hours. Polymarket currently favors Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? at 31.5%, while Kalshi leans toward Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their December 2026 meeting? at 49.0%. This allows traders to see where the crowd believes the Federal Reserve will land with its monetary policy decisions.

Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. Analysts may be influenced by biases or institutional pressures, while this market reflects the aggregated wisdom of a diverse group of traders with skin in the game. The difference in probabilities can highlight areas where the market disagrees with conventional wisdom. Examining the spread between market prices and analyst expectations can be a valuable signal for understanding potential policy shifts and economic outcomes. The current volume of $167,651 suggests significant interest in these predictions.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors. Differences in trader demographics, market liquidity, and the specific question wording can all contribute to price discrepancies. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform also has its own unique fee structure and user base, influencing trading behavior. Furthermore, information flow and interpretation can vary between the two venues, leading to differing assessments of the likelihood of various Federal Reserve actions. These differences create opportunities for arbitrage, but also highlight the dynamic nature of prediction markets.

This market resolves around Dec 9, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the Federal Reserve’s actual policy decisions made during the specified period, specifically September through December. The market’s outcome will reflect whether the Federal Reserve raises, lowers, or holds interest rates, as announced through official statements and minutes from their meetings. Traders should monitor these announcements closely as they approach the resolution date.

Several key signals could significantly impact this market. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation reports, employment figures, and GDP growth, will be closely watched. Statements from Federal Reserve officials, including speeches and press conferences, can also move the market. Geopolitical events and global economic conditions could also influence expectations about Federal Reserve policy. Any shifts in these factors could lead to changes in the probabilities offered on Polymarket and Kalshi, potentially creating trading opportunities.