TOTAL VOLUME:

$142.4b

24H VOL:

$104,871,197

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,643,541,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,592,701,755

469,827

Markets across

35,657

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,899

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Science and Technology
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
kalshi
opinion
polymarket

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Total volume:
$171,676,451
Volume 24h:
$157,313
126%
Liquidity:
$4,212,657
0.16%
Open interest:
$6,474,818
0.02%

0 (0 bps)

all

3 markets

Polymarket

Kalshi

Opinion

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

97%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 96.8¢ buys you 103 shares | Odds: 97% Total Payout: $103 | Net Profit: $3 Multiplier: 1.03x | ROI: 3% | APY: 16% 77 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

0 (0 bps)

Trade
97%
Yes 96.8¢No 3.3¢
0.1¢
$649,332
$8,910,156
0.14%
1%
N/A
2mo 2w 3d
active
kalshi

Exactly 0 cuts

Trade
95%
Yes 94.7¢No 5.9¢
0.6¢
N/A
$2,737,866
2%
2%
$1,156,289
2mo 2w 3d
active
opinion

0 (0 bps)

Trade
71%
Yes 98¢No 74.3¢
72.3¢
N/A
$21,519,088
0.18%
2%
N/A
2mo 2w 2d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
96.4%
Yes 96.5¢No 27.8¢
Avg: 24.3¢Max: 72.3¢
opinion

1 (25 bps)

Trade
16%
Yes 69.9¢No 97.5¢
67.4¢
N/A
$4,216,735
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 2w 2d
active
kalshi

Exactly 1 cut

Trade
5%
1%
Yes 4.8¢No 95.3¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,190,785
0.38%
1%
$425,702
2mo 2w 3d
active
polymarket

1 (25 bps)

Trade
2%
Yes 1.7¢No 98.4¢
0.1¢
$146,073
$3,512,517
0.43%
1%
N/A
2mo 2w 3d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
2.5%
Yes 25.5¢No 97.1¢
Avg: 22.5¢Max: 67.4¢
opinion

2 (50 bps)

Trade
5%
Yes 99.7¢No 95.5¢
95.2¢
N/A
$1,668,196
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 2w 2d
active
kalshi

Exactly 2 cuts

Trade
2%
1%
Yes 1.6¢No 98.8¢
0.4¢
N/A
$984,626
0.37%
1%
$452,215
2mo 2w 3d
active
polymarket

2 (50 bps)

Trade
1%
Yes 0.8¢No 99.3¢
0.1¢
$157,065
$3,410,196
0.21%
0.97%
N/A
2mo 2w 3d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
1%
Yes 34¢No 97.9¢
Avg: 31.9¢Max: 95.2¢
opinion

3 (75 bps)

Trade
3%
Yes 3.2¢No 98.9¢
2.1¢
N/A
$1,206,971
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 2w 2d
active
kalshi

Exactly 3 cuts

Trade
0%
Yes 0.4¢No 99.9¢
0.3¢
N/A
$668,280
0.48%
2%
$364,782
2mo 2w 3d
active
polymarket

3 (75 bps)

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$296,101
$2,985,456
0.45%
1%
N/A
2mo 2w 3d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.9%
Yes 1.3¢No 99.6¢
Avg: 0.8¢Max: 2.1¢
opinion

8+ (200+ bps)

Trade
1%
Yes 0.6¢No 99.6¢
0.2¢
N/A
$19,627,546
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 2w 2d
active
opinion

7 (175 bps)

Trade
0%
Yes 6.9¢No 99.8¢
6.7¢
N/A
$32,579,841
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 2w 2d
active
kalshi

Exactly 7 cuts

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
0.1¢
N/A
$380,959
0%
2%
$288,946
2mo 2w 3d
active
polymarket

7 (175 bps)

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$178,944
$3,527,086
0%
0.01%
N/A
2mo 2w 3d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.4%
Yes 2.4¢No 99.9¢
Avg: 3.4¢Max: 6.7¢
kalshi

Exactly 16 cuts

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
0.1¢
N/A
$241,234
0%
0%
$240,234
2mo 2w 3d
active
opinion

5 (125 bps)

Trade
6%
Yes 20.9¢No 99.9¢
20.8¢
N/A
$3,970,037
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 2w 2d
active
polymarket

5 (125 bps)

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$247,441
$3,004,389
0%
0.02%
N/A
2mo 2w 3d
active
kalshi

Exactly 5 cuts

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 100¢
0.2¢
N/A
$445,365
0%
0.65%
$307,585
2mo 2w 3d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.1%
Yes 7.1¢No 99.9¢
Avg: 7¢Max: 20.8¢
opinion

4 (100 bps)

Trade
0%
Yes 15.8¢No 99.6¢
15.4¢
N/A
$2,167,727
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 2w 2d
active
polymarket

4 (100 bps)

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$271,892
$2,756,714
0.15%
0.28%
N/A
2mo 2w 3d
active
kalshi

Exactly 4 cuts

Trade
0%
Yes 0.4¢No 99.9¢
0.3¢
N/A
$559,842
0.2%
0.55%
$357,944
2mo 2w 3d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.1%
Yes 5.5¢No 99.8¢
Avg: 5.3¢Max: 15.4¢
kalshi

Exactly 17 cuts

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
0.1¢
N/A
$524,096
0%
0%
$307,989
2mo 2w 3d
active
kalshi

Exactly 14 cuts

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 100¢
0.2¢
N/A
$436,852
0%
0.47%
$380,591
2mo 2w 3d
active
Total markets: 25 of 43

Description

This event group tracks the total number of Federal Reserve rate cuts (in 25 basis point increments) that will occur during 2026, from January 1 through December 31. Markets across three platforms offer overlapping but structurally different ways to bet on this outcome, ranging from zero cuts to 20+ cuts.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All three platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket, Opinion) resolve based on the identical underlying metric: total count of 25 basis point Fed rate cuts in calendar year 2026, sourced from official Federal Reserve publications.Primary resolution logic: Federal Reserve official website: FOMC statements (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm) and target federal funds rate level (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm)

Core resolution logic:

  • Count all rate cuts of 25 basis points or more announced by the Federal Reserve between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
  • Emergency rate cuts outside scheduled FOMC meetings count toward the total
  • Cuts between 1–24 bps inclusive are counted as 1 cut; 25–49 bps as 1 cut; 50 bps as 2 cuts; 75 bps as 3 cuts, etc.
  • Resolution is determined by official FOMC statements and the published target federal funds rate on the Federal Reserve website
  • Kalshi resolves to Yes for any outcome from 0 to 20 cuts; Polymarket offers binary markets for specific thresholds (0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12+); Opinion offers categorical buckets (0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8+)

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Emergency cuts outside FOMC schedule: Emergency rate cuts announced between scheduled FOMC meetings are included in the total count for 2026
  • Fractional basis point cuts: Any cut between 1–24 bps is counted as 1 cut; cuts of 25–49 bps count as 1 cut; 50 bps counts as 2 cuts, etc.
  • December 2026 meeting: Any rate cut announced at the December 2026 FOMC meeting (or via emergency action before Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET) counts toward the 2026 total
  • Early resolution on Polymarket: Polymarket markets resolve early to No if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible (e.g., if 7 cuts have already occurred, the '6 cuts' market resolves No)
  • No rate cuts scenario: If the Fed makes zero rate cuts in 2026, Kalshi resolves Yes for the 0-cut condition, Polymarket's 0-cut market resolves Yes, and Opinion's 0 bps bucket resolves Yes
Timing: Resolution occurs on January 1, 2027, after the Federal Reserve publishes final 2026 data and any December 2026 FOMC statement. Polymarket remains open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET to capture emergency actions.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

Kalshi

Resolution depends on the total count of Federal Reserve rate cuts from January 1, 2026 through December 31, 2026. Each market outcome represents a specific number of cuts, where 25 basis points equals one cut (so a 50bp reduction counts as two cuts, 75bp as three cuts, etc.). The market resolves to the outcome matching the actual total number of cuts implemented during 2026.

Opinion

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard aggregates trading activity for the 2026 Fed rate cuts market, providing a consensus view of predictions about how many times the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates during that year. Currently, the combined volume across both platforms exceeds $171,676,451, with $116,539 traded in the last 24 hours. This indicates significant interest in forecasting monetary policy. The current market consensus, as reflected by the aggregated probabilities, suggests a high likelihood of limited rate cuts. This allows traders to compare expectations across venues and gain a comprehensive understanding of the collective forecast.

Prediction market odds often offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may be influenced by institutional biases or public statements, this market reflects the aggregated wisdom of a diverse group of traders who have skin in the game. Currently, the implied probability of zero rate cuts in 2026 is quite high, exceeding 90% across both Polymarket and Kalshi. This contrasts with some analyst predictions that anticipate at least one or two cuts, depending on economic conditions. The difference highlights the potential for prediction markets to provide a more accurate, real-time assessment of future events.

Prices for the 2026 Fed rate cuts market can diverge between Polymarket and Kalshi due to several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts a different user base with varying risk tolerances and information sets, leading to differing interpretations of economic data and Fed policy signals. Trading volumes also play a role; higher volume on one platform can lead to more efficient price discovery. Additionally, the specific market structures and fee schedules on Polymarket and Kalshi can influence trading behavior. Currently, Polymarket currently favors no rate cuts at 96.8%, while Kalshi leans toward no rate cuts at 95.1%.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the actual number of Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on official announcements from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) regarding changes to the federal funds rate throughout the calendar year. The market will determine the number of times the Fed lowers the target range for the federal funds rate, and that number will be compared to the various outcomes offered in this market. Traders should monitor FOMC meetings and statements for key indicators.

Numerous economic signals and events could significantly impact the 2026 Fed rate cuts market. Key indicators like inflation data (CPI and PPI), employment reports, and GDP growth figures will heavily influence expectations. Unexpected shifts in these metrics could prompt traders to reassess the likelihood of rate cuts. Furthermore, statements from Federal Reserve officials, geopolitical events, and major economic shocks could all trigger price movements. A significant recession, for example, would likely increase the probability of rate cuts, while persistently high inflation could decrease it. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding the dynamics of this market.