TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$198,896,558
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,591,877
500,572
Markets across
13,691
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,797
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
Total volume:
$33,307,380
Volume 24h:
$208,130
13%
Liquidity:
$1,427,943
0.43%
Open interest:
$2,632,152
0.14%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group measures the total number of Federal Reserve rate cuts (in 25 basis point increments, or equivalent) that will occur during calendar year 2026, from January 1 through December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Both scheduled FOMC meetings and emergency rate cuts outside regular meetings count toward the total. The resolution source is official FOMC statements and the Federal Reserve's published target federal funds rate changes.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi market contains a logical contradiction: all 21 conditions resolve to YES regardless of outcome, making the market fundamentally unresolvable. Polymarket uses mutually exclusive binary outcomes (exactly one resolves YES), which is logically sound.Hero Tip:
Do not trade on Kalshi. The market structure is broken—every possible number of cuts (0 through 20+) resolves to YES, creating no meaningful price discovery. Polymarket offers the only tradeable structure where outcomes are mutually exclusive and exactly one will resolve YES.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Mutually exclusive binary outcomes: 14 separate markets, each asking 'Will exactly N cuts happen?' Only one market resolves YES based on the actual number of cuts. Resolution source is official FOMC statements and Federal Reserve rate announcements. Cuts are counted in 25 bps increments (1-24 bps = 1 cut, 25-49 bps = 2 cuts, etc.). Market stays open through December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET to capture emergency cuts.
- Kalshi: Logical contradiction: all 21 conditions are structured as 'If the Fed cuts N times, then resolve YES.' This includes every possible outcome from 0 cuts to 20+ cuts. There is no NO resolution path—every conceivable number of cuts triggers a YES. This violates basic market logic and makes price discovery impossible. Quote: 'If the Fed cuts 0 times...then the market resolves to Yes' AND 'If the Fed cuts 20 times...then the market resolves to Yes' creates an unresolvable contradiction.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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