TOTAL VOLUME:

$97.2b

24H VOL:

$220,210,861

24H TRANSACTIONS:

950,106,883

OPEN INTEREST:

$2,090,266,929

827,536

Markets across

14,902

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

919

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

45%

VS.

Kalshi:

55%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Watchlist
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Sports
Politics
Crypto
Elections
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Science and Technology
Entertainment
F
Economics
predict
opinion
polymarket

Fed rate hike in 2026? Odds & Prediction Markets

Total volume:
$9,933,584
Volume 24h:
$36,935
81%
Liquidity:
$165,555
58%
Open interest:
$1,058,777N/A

51% - 53%

chance

PredictionHero
Fed rate hike in 2026?
opinion
Fed rate hike in 2026?
predict
Fed rate hike in 2026?
polymarket
Feb 2026Feb 2026Mar 2026Mar 2026Mar 2026Apr 2026Apr 2026Apr 2026May 2026May 2026May 2026Jun 2026Jun 2026Jun 2026Jul 20260204060

Fed rate hike in 2026?

53%chance
Amount

$

$20

$50

$100

$500

Trade on
opinion

Trade on Opinion

At 52.5¢ buys you 190 shares | Odds: 53% Total Payout: $190 | Net Profit: $90 Multiplier: 1.90x | ROI: 90% | APY: 302% 167 days to resolution
predict

Trade on Predict

At 52.5¢ buys you 190 shares | Odds: 53% Total Payout: $190 | Net Profit: $90 Multiplier: 1.90x | ROI: 90% | APY: 401% 145 days to resolution
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 51¢ buys you 196 shares | Odds: 51% Total Payout: $196 | Net Profit: $96 Multiplier: 1.96x | ROI: 96% | APY: 438% 145 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result

Intro

This market tracks whether the Federal Reserve will raise its target federal funds rate at any point during 2026. Across Predict, Opinion, and Polymarket, the aggregated consensus stands at 53.1% for a rate hike occurring within the calendar year. Resolution will be determined by official Federal Reserve announcements, with credible news reporting accepted as a secondary source. Watch for the December 8-9, 2026 FOMC meeting, which represents the final opportunity for a rate increase to occur within the 2026 betting window.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All three platforms use identical resolution criteria, timing window, and primary source authority with no material divergence.Primary resolution logic: Official Federal Reserve website (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm); credible news reporting consensus accepted as secondary source.

Core resolution logic:

  • Market resolves YES if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the December 2026 FOMC meeting (scheduled December 8-9, 2026).
  • Market resolves NO if no rate increase occurs during the specified window.
  • Market cannot resolve to NO until after the Fed releases its rate decision following the December 2026 meeting.
  • A single rate hike at any FOMC meeting during the 2026 calendar year triggers YES resolution; multiple hikes do not change the outcome.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Timing of December Meeting Decision: Resolution cannot finalize to NO until the Fed's December 2026 meeting conclusion and official announcement. Early resolution to YES is permitted if a hike occurs at any prior 2026 meeting.
  • Rate Hike Definition: Resolution is based on an increase to the upper bound of the target federal funds rate range. A maintenance of rates or a rate cut resolves to NO.
  • Source Conflict: If official Fed website and credible news reporting diverge, the official Federal Reserve website takes precedence as primary source.
  • Partial Year Coverage: The window is strictly January 1, 2026 through December 8-9, 2026 FOMC meeting. Any rate action outside this window does not affect resolution.
Timing: Resolution occurs after the Federal Reserve announces its rate decision following the December 2026 FOMC meeting (currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026). Early resolution to YES is possible if a rate hike occurs at any prior 2026 FOMC meeting.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Show more

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Predict

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Opinion

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Follow the signals, not the noise

Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.

Company

Brand Kit

API & Data Licensing

Methodology

Help Center

Disclaimer

Terms of Use

Privacy Policy

Contact

PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.19.2PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.