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335,484

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Science and Technology
Fed rate hike in 2026?
Economics
predict
opinion
polymarket

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Total volume:
$14,361,362
Volume 24h:
$43,527
89%
Liquidity:
$244,112
51%
Open interest:
$1,418,926N/A

Fed rate hike in 2026?

all

3 markets

Polymarket

58%

Predict

57.8%

Opinion

60%

consensus

58.6%

+7.6%

spread

57.8-60%

(2.2pp)

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Aug 20

Aug 21

Aug 22

Aug 23

Aug 24

Aug 25

Aug 27

Vol.

$425.7k

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Fed rate hike in 2026?

57%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 58¢ buys you 172 shares | Odds: 57% Total Payout: $172 | Net Profit: $72 Multiplier: 1.72x | ROI: 72% High Projected APY: 576% 103 days to resolution
predict

Trade on Predict

At 57.8¢ buys you 173 shares | Odds: 57% Total Payout: $173 | Net Profit: $73 Multiplier: 1.73x | ROI: 73% High Projected APY: 585% 103 days to resolution
opinion

Trade on Opinion

At 60¢ buys you 167 shares | Odds: 51% Total Payout: $167 | Net Profit: $67 Multiplier: 1.67x | ROI: 67% | APY: 339% 125 days to resolution
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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
MUI X License key version mismatch
Total markets: 3

Description

This event group asks whether the Federal Reserve will increase the upper bound of the target federal funds rate at any point during 2026, from January 1 through the December 2026 FOMC meeting (scheduled for December 8-9, 2026). Resolution depends on official Fed announcements and requires confirmation from the December meeting before a 'No' outcome can be finalized.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All three platforms use identical resolution criteria, timing window, and primary source authority with no material divergence.Primary resolution logic: Official Federal Reserve website (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm); credible news reporting consensus accepted as secondary source.

Core resolution logic:

  • Market resolves YES if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the December 2026 FOMC meeting (scheduled December 8-9, 2026).
  • Market resolves NO if no rate increase occurs during the specified window.
  • Market cannot resolve to NO until after the Fed releases its rate decision following the December 2026 meeting.
  • A single rate hike at any FOMC meeting during the 2026 calendar year triggers YES resolution; multiple hikes do not change the outcome.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Timing of December Meeting Decision: Resolution cannot finalize to NO until the Fed's December 2026 meeting conclusion and official announcement. Early resolution to YES is permitted if a hike occurs at any prior 2026 meeting.
  • Rate Hike Definition: Resolution is based on an increase to the upper bound of the target federal funds rate range. A maintenance of rates or a rate cut resolves to NO.
  • Source Conflict: If official Fed website and credible news reporting diverge, the official Federal Reserve website takes precedence as primary source.
  • Partial Year Coverage: The window is strictly January 1, 2026 through December 8-9, 2026 FOMC meeting. Any rate action outside this window does not affect resolution.
Timing: Resolution occurs after the Federal Reserve announces its rate decision following the December 2026 FOMC meeting (currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026). Early resolution to YES is possible if a rate hike occurs at any prior 2026 FOMC meeting.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Predict

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Opinion

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.