TOTAL VOLUME:

$116.8b

24H VOL:

$85,370,070

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,362,287,844

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,160,869,143

337,988

Markets across

33,281

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,244

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
Watchlist
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Economics
predict
kalshi
polymarket

Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)

Total volume:
$803,120
Volume 24h:
$5,539
3%
Liquidity:
$70,271
2%
Open interest:
$1,593
0%

Above 3.4%

 - Kalshi

Above 3.4% - Kalshi

94%

+0%

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

No volume data

Aug 20

Aug 21

Aug 21

Aug 23

Aug 24

Aug 26

Aug 27

Vol.

$0.0

·

Resolves Sep 17, 2026

Time left: 20d:02h:38m

What will the median be in the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 dot plot?

95%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 94¢ buys you 106 shares | Odds: 95% Total Payout: $106 | Net Profit: $6 Multiplier: 1.06x | ROI: 6% | APY: 209% 20 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Total markets: 24

Intro

This market tracks the median estimate in the Federal Reserve's September 16, 2026 dot plot. The aggregated consensus across Predict, Kalshi, and Polymarket shows a leading probability of 95.0%. Resolution is determined by FOMC statements after meetings and the Federal Reserve's official website. Watch the Federal Reserve's September 15-16, 2026 meeting for the official release of the dot plot, which will set the final outcome.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms use identical criteria for determining rate cuts, pauses, and hikes based on FOMC meeting outcomes, with consistent exclusion of emergency rate actions.Primary resolution logic: FOMC statements after meetings and the Federal Reserve's official website

Core resolution logic:

  • A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting
  • A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting
  • A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting
  • Emergency rate cuts outside regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Other: Resolves to 'Other' if the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed in the market questions
  • Rate Hike: Any rate hike will be encompassed by 'Other' outcome
Timing: Resolves after the September 15-16, 2024 FOMC meetingOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Show more

Polymarket

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the median projected appropriate level of the federal funds rate for year-end 2026 as published in the Federal Reserve's Summary of Economic Projections at the September 16, 2026 meeting. The underlying value is the published median year-end 2026 federal funds rate projection, not the midpoint or bounds of the federal funds target range unless that is how the Federal Reserve publishes the relevant value. Each outcome corresponds to whether this median projection exceeds a specific threshold, ranging from 3.3% to 4.4% in increments of 0.1 percentage points.

Predict

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard tracks the short_topic across multiple venues, showing how traders price the likelihood of different Federal Reserve moves over the next few meetings. It aggregates volume of $788,022 and recent activity of $4,618 to reflect overall market sentiment. By comparing odds on different platforms, users can see where consensus is building and spot potential shifts in expectations before official announcements.

On Polymarket and Kalshi, pricing can vary due to differences in user base, liquidity, and design. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For instance, one platform might attract more retail traders reacting quickly to news, while the other could reflect institutional sentiment. The current spread of 28.0 percentage points between the two venues shows how these dynamics create pricing divergence, especially when new economic data lands.

This market resolves around Sep 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once official Fed statements and economic reports are published. The result is verified against credible public sources, locking in the final price based on decisions made during the relevant meeting period. Timing matters — markets settle after the final announcement, not before.

Key signals include U.S. jobs data, inflation reports, and speeches from Fed officials — all of which shape expectations for rate moves. Geopolitical events or sudden shifts in global markets can also impact this market, as traders adjust for risk. Any surprise change in economic trajectory before Sep 17, 2026 may push odds sharply toward Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? or What will the median be in the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 dot plot?, depending on how participants interpret the news.