TOTAL VOLUME:

$149.7b

24H VOL:

$109,714,070

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,820,087,997

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,739,090,488

444,140

Markets across

34,296

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,700

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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How high will US unemployment go in 2026?
polymarket
kalshi

How high will US unemployment go in 2026?

Total volume:
$1,396,135
Volume 24h:
$4,945
1,884%
Liquidity:
$27,299
15%
Open interest:
$319,676
0%

Above 4.5%

 - Kalshi

Above 4.5% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Mar 31, 2027

How high will unemployment get before 2027?

12%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 4.5%

Trade
12%
Yes 13¢No 88¢
1¢
N/A
$35,238
0%
1%
$10,550
2mo 2w
active
kalshi

Above 17%

Trade
9%
Yes 5.1¢No 99.3¢
4.4¢
N/A
$4,349
0%
0%
$2,472
2mo 2w
active
polymarket

5.0%

Trade
5%
1%
Yes 5.8¢No 95.7¢
1.5¢
$3,674
$166,281
2%
6%
N/A
3mo 1w
active
kalshi

Above 5%

Trade
4%
Yes 8¢No 97.7¢
5.7¢
N/A
$345,126
0%
0.24%
$123,770
2mo 2w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
4.3%
Yes 6.9¢No 96.7¢
Avg: 3.6¢Max: 5.7¢
kalshi

Above 4.8%

Trade
4%
Yes 8¢No 96¢
4¢
N/A
$7,182
16%
16%
$3,032
2mo 2w
active
kalshi

Above 9%

Trade
4%
Yes 2.9¢No 98.6¢
1.5¢
N/A
$18,329
0%
0%
$7,528
2mo 2w
active
kalshi

Above 8%

Trade
4%
Yes 3.5¢No 98.5¢
2¢
N/A
$21,077
0%
0%
$10,084
2mo 2w
active
kalshi

Above 15%

Trade
3%
Yes 4.9¢No 99.7¢
4.6¢
N/A
$3,863
0%
0%
$942
2mo 2w
active
kalshi

Above 10%

Trade
3%
Yes 3.2¢No 98.7¢
1.9¢
N/A
$13,131
0%
0%
$5,359
2mo 2w
active
polymarket

10.0%

Trade
2%
Yes 2.9¢No 98.4¢
1.3¢
$435
$53,991
0%
0.01%
N/A
3mo 1w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
2.5%
Yes 3.1¢No 98.6¢
Avg: 1.6¢Max: 1.9¢
kalshi

Above 5.5%

Trade
3%
Yes 8¢No 98¢
6¢
N/A
$7,722
0%
0%
$5,450
2mo 2w
active
polymarket

5.5%

Trade
2%
Yes 2.4¢No 98.1¢
0.5¢
$15,855
$217,230
0%
0.16%
N/A
3mo 1w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
2.2%
Yes 5.2¢No 98.1¢
Avg: 3.3¢Max: 6¢
kalshi

Above 6.5%

Trade
2%
Yes 4¢No 99¢
3¢
N/A
$8,283
0%
0%
$5,595
2mo 2w
active
polymarket

7.0%

Trade
5%
Yes 6.5¢No 97.2¢
3.7¢
$957
$37,888
0.21%
2%
N/A
3mo 1w
active
kalshi

Above 7%

Trade
1%
Yes 3¢No 99.1¢
2.1¢
N/A
$119,011
0%
0%
$61,955
2mo 2w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
2%
Yes 4.8¢No 98.2¢
Avg: 2.9¢Max: 3.7¢
kalshi

Above 12%

Trade
1%
Yes 3¢No 98.8¢
1.8¢
N/A
$3,641
0%
0%
$2,001
2mo 2w
active
kalshi

Above 6%

Trade
2%
Yes 7.7¢No 98¢
5.7¢
N/A
$221,084
0%
0.02%
$78,476
2mo 2w
active
polymarket

6.0%

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$6,378
$108,992
0.22%
5%
N/A
3mo 1w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
1.2%
Yes 4¢No 99¢
Avg: 2.9¢Max: 5.7¢
kalshi

Above 20%

Trade
0%
Yes 2.9¢No 99.8¢
2.7¢
N/A
$3,717
0%
0.39%
$2,462
2mo 2w
active
Total markets: 19

Intro

This market tracks the highest level of US unemployment expected to be reached during the calendar year 2026, using the official seasonally adjusted U-3 rate reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Currently, the consensus probability—aggregated from Polymarket and Kalshi—indicates a 12.0% chance that unemployment will reach or exceed the levels implied by the leading outcome, with a 11.0% chance for the second outcome. The resolution source for this market is the BLS Employment Situation Reports available at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm. Traders should watch the BLS’s release on February 6, 2026, as it will be the first report providing data relevant to the 2026 calendar year.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The markets diverge on whether unemployment must *equal or exceed* a threshold ('at least') versus *strictly exceed* a threshold ('above').Hero tip: Consider the slight conservatism of Polymarket markets when comparing probabilities across platforms. Kalshi markets require a higher unemployment rate to resolve 'Yes'.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves 'Yes' if unemployment reaches or exceeds a specific percentage for any month in 2026. Key Quote: "…is greater than or equal to the listed percentage."
  • Kalshi: Resolves 'Yes' if unemployment strictly exceeds a specific percentage for any month in 2026. Key Quote: "…is above X%…"
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month. Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Kalshi

Performance is defined as live appearance on stage or in official broadcast/stream where the artist performs through singing, dancing, DJ-ing, or playing an instrument, either as a scheduled performer or guest appearance during another artist's performance. Guest appearances with live music performance and festival appearances with live sets qualify. Non-qualifying activities include: appearing only as award presenter or host, being in audience without performing, having music played without participation, appearing in video montages or tribute segments, pre-show or post-show performances outside official event timeframe, appearances without performing (speeches, award acceptances, interviews, promotional events), canceled or postponed shows with no performance in the time period, rehearsals and sound checks, and virtual participation via livestream into the venue.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this market aggregates forecasts on the highest level of US unemployment expected throughout 2026. Currently, the combined volume across both platforms is $1,396,135, with $4,744 traded in the last 24 hours, indicating significant interest in this economic indicator. The dashboard provides a consensus view derived from the prices set by traders on these platforms, giving a real-time assessment of expectations for the US labor market. This is a valuable tool for anyone following the US unemployment rate market and seeking insights beyond traditional economic forecasts.

Prediction market odds often reflect a different kind of wisdom than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts rely on models and economic reports, this market incorporates the collective judgment of a diverse group of traders who are incentivized to accurately predict the future. Currently, Polymarket currently favors Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026? at 5.1%, while Kalshi leans toward How high will unemployment get before 2027? at 12.0%. This can lead to divergences, especially during periods of high uncertainty or when anticipating unexpected events that may not be fully captured in standard economic models.

This market resolves around Apr 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the highest monthly US unemployment rate reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) during the calendar year 2026. The final price will reflect whether the unemployment rate reached or exceeded certain thresholds, as defined by the available outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on their predictions.

Several economic signals and geopolitical events could significantly impact this market. Unexpected shifts in monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, major changes in global economic growth, and unforeseen shocks to the labor market—such as large-scale layoffs or significant changes in labor force participation—could all cause substantial price movements. Additionally, key economic data releases, including monthly employment reports and GDP figures, will be closely watched by traders and could lead to rapid adjustments in the odds. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for anyone actively participating in this market.