TOTAL VOLUME:

$124b

24H VOL:

$82,345,145

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,121,338,658

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,285,568,173

364,467

Markets across

33,191

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,073

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

41%

VS.

Kalshi:

59%

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How high will US unemployment go in 2026?
kalshi
polymarket

How high will US unemployment go in 2026?

Total volume:
$517,775
Volume 24h:
$406
107%
Liquidity:
$14,104
14%
Open interest:
$10,024
2%

Above 3.9%

 - Kalshi

Above 3.9% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Feb 1, 2027

Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.9% in October?

96%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 100¢ buys you 100 shares | Odds: 96% Total Payout: $100 | Net Profit: $0 Multiplier: 1.00x | ROI: 0% | APY: 0% Illiquid market 57 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 3.9%

Trade
96%
Yes 100¢No 18¢
18¢
N/A
$2,391
0.04%
3%
$1,140
1mo 3w 6d
active
kalshi

Above 3.7%

Trade
93%
Yes 100¢No 38¢
38¢
N/A
$1,986
0%
50%
$1,505
1mo 3w 6d
active
kalshi

Above 3.8%

Trade
93%
6%
Yes 100¢No 80¢
80¢
N/A
$810
0.62%
0.62%
$595
1mo 3w 6d
active
kalshi

Above 4.0%

Trade
77%
Yes 96¢No 84¢
80¢
N/A
$2,402
0%
7%
$964
1mo 3w 6d
active
kalshi

Above 4.1%

Trade
72%
11%
Yes 93¢No 39¢
32¢
N/A
$1,584
0.57%
188%
$1,377
1mo 3w 6d
active
kalshi

Above 4.2%

Trade
38%
Yes 72¢No 87¢
59¢
N/A
$1,996
3%
36%
$536
1mo 3w 6d
active
kalshi

Above 4.3%

Trade
21%
10%
Yes 63¢No 97¢
60¢
N/A
$1,440
17%
186%
$1,006
1mo 3w 6d
active
kalshi

Above 4.8%

Trade
13%
Yes 25¢No 98¢
23¢
N/A
$607
0%
0%
$434
1mo 3w 6d
active
kalshi

Above 4.7%

Trade
10%
Yes 55¢No 98¢
53¢
N/A
$72
0%
0%
$61
1mo 3w 6d
active
polymarket

5.0%

Trade
10%
Yes 9.9¢No 90.3¢
0.2¢
$3,714
$133,655
0.01%
7%
N/A
4mo 3w 2d
active
kalshi

Above 4.9%

Trade
9%
Yes 52¢No 98¢
50¢
N/A
$289
0%
0%
$162
1mo 3w 6d
active
kalshi

Above 4.5%

Trade
8%
5%
Yes 46¢No 95¢
41¢
N/A
$1,225
4%
26%
$1,005
1mo 3w 6d
active
kalshi

Above 4.6%

Trade
8%
Yes 10¢No 100¢
10¢
N/A
$764
0%
15%
$150
1mo 3w 6d
active
kalshi

Above 4.4%

Trade
7%
Yes 12¢No 95¢
7¢
N/A
$1,561
4%
310%
$917
1mo 3w 6d
active
kalshi

Above 5.0%

Trade
7%
Yes 21¢No 100¢
21¢
N/A
$220
0%
0%
$172
1mo 3w 6d
active
polymarket

6.0%

Trade
7%
Yes 7¢No 94¢
1¢
$2,142
$79,344
0%
3%
N/A
4mo 3w 2d
active
polymarket

5.5%

Trade
6%
Yes 6.4¢No 93.8¢
0.2¢
$2,548
$203,320
0%
0.46%
N/A
4mo 3w 2d
active
polymarket

7.0%

Trade
5%
Yes 4.9¢No 95.3¢
0.2¢
$4,862
$33,045
0%
2%
N/A
4mo 3w 2d
active
polymarket

10.0%

Trade
4%
Yes 4.2¢No 96.9¢
1.1¢
$838
$51,064
0%
0.04%
N/A
4mo 3w 2d
active
Total markets: 19

Intro

This market tracks the probability of the US unemployment rate (U-3) exceeding 3.9% at any point during 2026. Currently, the consensus probability across Kalshi and Polymarket is 96.0% that it will. This aggregated view combines market data from both platforms and will resolve based on the U-3 unemployment rate reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in their Employment Situation Reports. Specifically, resolution will consider reports from January through December 2026, with a final resolution date no later than February 1, 2027, allowing time for the December report’s release. Keep an eye on the Employment Situation Report released each month, as any single report showing a U-3 rate at or above 3.9% will trigger a “Yes” resolution.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket uses a 12-month observation window (any month Jan-Dec 2026) while Kalshi uses a single-month snapshot (October 2026 only). This creates different settlement outcomes for identical unemployment trajectories.Hero tip: Polymarket YES bets are more likely to resolve YES because they capture any peak during the year. Kalshi bets are more conservative, requiring the threshold to be exceeded specifically in October. If you expect unemployment to spike early in 2026 then recover, favor Polymarket. If you expect sustained elevation through October, both platforms converge.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves YES if any seasonally adjusted U-3 rate in any Employment Situation Report for reference months Jan-Dec 2026 meets or exceeds the threshold (5.0%, 5.5%, 6.0%, 7.0%, or 10.0%). Resolution cannot finalize until December 2026 report is released, with fallback to March 31, 2027 if December report is delayed. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to Yes if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate...reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an Employment Situation Report for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage.'
  • Kalshi: Resolves YES if seasonally adjusted U-3 rate in October 2026 Employment Situation Report exceeds the specified threshold (14 markets with thresholds: 3.7%, 3.8%, 3.9%, 4.0%, 4.1%, 4.2%, 4.3%, 4.4%, 4.5%, 4.6%, 4.7%, 4.8%, 4.9%, 5.0%). Single reference month only. Key Quote: 'If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above [threshold]% in October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month. Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Kalshi

This event tracks whether the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report exceeds various threshold levels in October 2026. The thresholds range from 3.7% to 5.0%, each representing a distinct resolution point. A single threshold being exceeded determines the corresponding market outcome; the event structure allows participants to bet on whether unemployment will surpass specific percentage levels, with higher thresholds indicating progressively weaker labor market conditions.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates real-time odds and trading activity across Polymarket and Kalshi, two leading prediction markets tracking US unemployment outcomes in 2026. It displays the consensus probability for key unemployment thresholds, current market prices, and 24-hour volume across both platforms. By monitoring cross-platform data, you can see how traders are pricing unemployment risk, identify divergences between markets, and track how sentiment shifts as economic data and Federal Reserve policy evolve throughout 2026. The dashboard provides a unified view of where the market stands on whether unemployment will breach critical levels.

Prediction market odds reflect real-money bets from traders and economists, often incorporating forward-looking sentiment faster than traditional analyst surveys. Polymarket and Kalshi prices embed expectations about Fed policy, labor market dynamics, and recession risk. Analyst forecasts typically rely on econometric models and historical trends, which may lag market repricing during volatile periods. Comparing the two reveals whether markets are pricing in more pessimism or optimism than consensus forecasts. Market-based odds tend to be more dynamic and responsive to breaking economic data, making them a valuable cross-check against static analyst estimates for 2026 unemployment outcomes.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Price differences between Polymarket and Kalshi can arise from distinct user bases, liquidity pools, and contract specifications. Polymarket may attract retail traders while Kalshi draws institutional participants, leading to different risk premiums. Liquidity depth varies by platform, affecting how large trades move prices. Contract design differences—such as specific unemployment thresholds or measurement timing—can create genuine basis spreads. Regulatory constraints and fee structures also influence where traders choose to position. Monitoring these spreads helps identify arbitrage opportunities and reveals which platform's pricing may be more efficient or better-informed on unemployment trajectories.

The market resolves on Feb 1, 2027. Resolution hinges on official US unemployment data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, typically measured as the U-3 rate or other specified metrics depending on the contract terms. The outcome is determined by whether unemployment reaches, exceeds, or stays below defined thresholds throughout 2026. Each platform may track different measurement windows or unemployment rates, so verify the exact resolution criteria on Polymarket and Kalshi before trading. Final settlement occurs after the BLS publishes the relevant employment report that determines whether the outcome condition has been met.

Major catalysts include monthly jobs reports, Fed interest-rate decisions, and inflation data that influence monetary policy. Recession indicators—yield curve inversions, consumer spending weakness, or corporate earnings misses—could spike unemployment expectations sharply. Geopolitical shocks, trade policy changes, or sector-specific disruptions may alter labor demand. Wage growth and wage-price dynamics affect Fed tightening or easing cycles. Election outcomes and fiscal policy shifts in late 2025 and 2026 could reshape economic momentum. Each employment report between now and Feb 1, 2027 will be a key repricing event. Real-time monitoring of these signals helps traders anticipate market moves and adjust positions ahead of resolution.