TOTAL VOLUME:

$124b

24H VOL:

$82,345,145

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,121,338,658

OPEN INTEREST:

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364,467

Markets across

33,191

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MATCHED EVENTS:

3,073

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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41%

VS.

Kalshi:

59%

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How high will 30-year Treasury yield go in September?
kalshi
polymarket

How high will 30-year Treasury yield go in September?

Total volume:
$1,731,545
Volume 24h:
$61,459
106%
Liquidity:
$5,134
30%
Open interest:
$1,011,439
5%

Above 3.50%

 - Kalshi

Above 3.50% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Sep 30, 2026

Time left: 06d:08h:59m

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?

99%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 100¢ buys you 100 shares | Odds: 99% Total Payout: $100 | Net Profit: $0 Multiplier: 1.00x | ROI: 0% | APY: 0% Illiquid market 6 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 3.50%

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 1¢
1¢
N/A
$261,393
0.43%
5%
$140,351
6d 8h 59m
active
kalshi

Above 2.75%

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 1¢
1¢
N/A
$11,395
0%
109%
$9,778
6d 8h 59m
active
kalshi

Above 3.25%

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 1¢
1¢
N/A
$11,150
0%
0.3%
$6,987
6d 8h 59m
active
kalshi

Above 3.00%

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 1¢
1¢
N/A
$10,039
0%
0%
$5,931
6d 8h 59m
active
polymarket

5.30%

Trade
78%
11%
Yes 93.1¢No 18.7¢
11.8¢
$528
$1,115
0%
0%
N/A
2w 6d 2h
active
polymarket

5.33%

Trade
56%
3%
Yes 79¢No 43¢
22¢
$132
$2,346
1,516%
0%
N/A
2w 6d 2h
active
kalshi

Above 3.75%

Trade
55%
Yes 55¢No 46¢
1¢
N/A
$649,647
7%
20%
$386,696
6d 8h 59m
active
polymarket

5.60%

Trade
14%
1%
Yes 14¢No 87¢
1¢
$686
$20
0%
0%
N/A
2w 6d 2h
active
kalshi

Above 4.75%

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$397,798
0%
292%
$207,990
6d 8h 59m
active
kalshi

Above 4.00%

Trade
1%
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$188,737
7%
25%
$135,262
6d 8h 59m
active
kalshi

Above 4.50%

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$160,819
0%
3%
$85,419
6d 8h 59m
active
kalshi

Above 4.25%

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$35,824
8%
54%
$31,956
6d 8h 59m
active
kalshi

Above 5.00%

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$656
0%
0%
$562
6d 8h 59m
active
kalshi

Above 5.25%

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$606
0%
0%
$508
6d 8h 59m
active
polymarket

5.36%

Trade
N/A
N/A
1¢
$383
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2w 6d 2h
active
polymarket

5.39%

Trade
N/A
N/A
1¢
$380
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2w 6d 2h
active
polymarket

5.42%

Trade
N/A
N/A
1¢
$477
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2w 6d 2h
active
polymarket

5.45%

Trade
N/A
N/A
1¢
$855
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2w 6d 2h
active
polymarket

5.50%

Trade
N/A
N/A
1¢
$853
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2w 6d 2h
active
polymarket

5.55%

Trade
N/A
N/A
1¢
$841
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2w 6d 2h
active
Total markets: 20

Intro

This market tracks the probability of the upper bound of the federal funds rate being above 3.50% following the Federal Reserve’s Sep 16, 2026 meeting. Currently, the consensus probability across Kalshi and Polymarket is 99.0%. This aggregated view uses the Federal Reserve's official website as its resolution source, defining a 'Yes' outcome as a rate greater than 5.25% after the specified meeting. Market participants should watch the Federal Reserve’s Sep 16, 2026 meeting for key announcements regarding interest rate policy, as this directly informs the resolution of this market.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi markets are based on Federal Reserve policy rates, while Polymarket markets are based on the 30-year Treasury yield itself, creating a fundamental divergence in resolution criteria.Hero tip: Traders should carefully consider the distinct settlement criteria of each platform. Federal Reserve policy and Treasury yields are related but not perfectly correlated.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves based on whether the 30-year Treasury yield reaches or exceeds a specific value *any day* in September 2026, sourced from the Department of the Treasury. "This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026."
  • Kalshi: Resolves based on the upper bound of the target federal funds rate following the Federal Reserve's Sep 16, 2026 meeting. If the rate is above a certain threshold, the market resolves to 'Yes'. This is indirectly related to Treasury yields but is not a direct measurement of them.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website following the September 16, 2026 meeting. Each outcome resolves to Yes if the upper bound exceeds its specified threshold (2.75%, 3.00%, 3.25%, 3.50%, 3.75%, 4.00%, 4.25%, 4.50%, 4.75%, or 5.25%). The market expires at the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of the Federal Reserve's statement for the September 16, 2026 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting, whichever comes first.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard aggregates trading activity related to the expected high for the 30-year Treasury yield during September. Currently, there's a consensus view forming around potential yield levels, with Polymarket showing a 78.1% probability for Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.30% in September?, while Kalshi currently favors Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting? at 99.0%. Total volume across both platforms is $1,731,545, indicating significant interest in this market. The dashboard provides a unified view of predictions on the 30-year Treasury yield, offering insights into market sentiment.

Prediction market odds often reflect a 'wisdom of the crowd' perspective, potentially incorporating a broader range of information than traditional analyst forecasts. While analyst predictions for the 30-year Treasury yield are readily available, this market allows traders to express their beliefs with real capital, which can lead to more accurate forecasts. Discrepancies between prediction market prices and analyst expectations can signal areas of disagreement or overlooked factors. Examining both sources provides a more comprehensive understanding of potential yield movements, and can reveal whether the market anticipates conditions differing from those modeled by conventional economic analysis.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi for the 30-year Treasury yield market can diverge due to several factors. These platforms have different user bases, trading volumes (Polymarket: $62,574 in 24-hour volume), and liquidity profiles. Additionally, the specific contracts offered on each platform – such as Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.30% in September? and Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting? – may have slightly different settlement conditions or attract different types of traders. Market sentiment and news flow can also be interpreted differently by participants on each platform, leading to price discrepancies. The 20.9 percentage point difference between the platforms highlights these varying perspectives.

This market resolves around Sep 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the highest 30-year Treasury yield recorded during September is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will reflect the peak yield reached throughout the month, as reported by a widely recognized financial data source. Traders will be able to see the verified yield level, determining the winning outcome in this market. The final price will reflect the collective predictions made by participants leading up to the resolution date, providing a snapshot of market expectations.

Several key economic indicators and events could significantly impact the 30-year Treasury yield and, consequently, this market. Inflation data releases, Federal Reserve policy announcements, and unexpected shifts in economic growth forecasts are all potential catalysts. Geopolitical events and changes in global risk appetite could also drive demand for safe-haven assets like Treasury bonds, influencing yields. Stronger-than-expected economic data might push yields higher, while signs of a recession could lead to a decline. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding price movements in this market as we approach Sep 30, 2026.