TOTAL VOLUME:

$143b

24H VOL:

$111,424,783

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,676,623,266

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,630,632,565

494,234

Markets across

37,330

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,871

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
GPU rental prices (H200) hit___ in 2026?
polymarket
kalshi

Will H200 GPU rental prices hit the threshold in 2026?

Total volume:
$45,355
Volume 24h:
$1,156
61%
Liquidity:
$1,194
4%
Open interest:
$9,940
2%

↓ $4.00

 - Polymarket

↓ $4.00 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Will the Ornn H200 Index hit $4.00 (LOW) by December 31, 2026?

55%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 81.7¢ buys you 122 shares | Odds: 55% Total Payout: $122 | Net Profit: $22 Multiplier: 1.22x | ROI: 22% | APY: 161% Low liquidity 76 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

↓ $4.00

Trade
55%
10%
Yes 81.7¢No 76.7¢
58.4¢
$111
$3,168
1%
15%
N/A
2mo 2w 2d
active
polymarket

↑ $7.00

Trade
54%
12%
Yes 73.9¢No 60.9¢
34.8¢
$87
$1,304
12%
223%
N/A
2mo 2w 2d
active
polymarket

↓ $3.75

Trade
47%
6%
Yes 43.8¢No 75.4¢
19.2¢
$122
$5,901
2%
17%
N/A
2mo 2w 2d
active
polymarket

↓ $3.50

Trade
34%
5%
Yes 41.9¢No 68.7¢
10.6¢
$308
$2,646
2%
29%
N/A
2mo 2w 2d
active
polymarket

↓ $3.00

Trade
31%
2%
Yes 33¢No 72¢
5¢
$259
$5,968
0.25%
16%
N/A
2mo 2w 2d
active
polymarket

↓ $2.50

Trade
16%
Yes 16.5¢No 85.4¢
1.9¢
$306
$490
0%
63%
N/A
2mo 2w 2d
active
kalshi

Above $5.50

View
100%
95%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,517
N/A
N/A
$766
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4.00

View
100%
12%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,809
N/A
N/A
$1,416
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $5.00

View
100%
36%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,805
N/A
N/A
$698
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $3.50

View
100%
5%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,794
N/A
N/A
$1,394
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↑ $4.50

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,725
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2w 1d
Yes
kalshi

Above $4.50

View
100%
11%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,380
N/A
N/A
$752
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $3.00

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,024
N/A
N/A
$1,024
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↑ $6.00

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$918
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2w 2d
Yes
polymarket

↑ $5.00

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$912
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2w 1d
Yes
polymarket

↑ $5.50

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$564
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2w 1d
Yes
kalshi

Above $2.50

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$406
N/A
N/A
$406
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $2.00

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$206
N/A
N/A
$206
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $1.50

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$6
N/A
N/A
$6
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $6.50

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,015
N/A
N/A
$2,407
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $6.00

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,797
N/A
N/A
$864
Settled
No
Total markets: 21

Description

This group forecasts the rental prices of NVIDIA H200 GPUs in 2026. The markets assess whether the price per hour will reach specific thresholds, with Polymarket focusing on the Ornnai.com H200 Index and Kalshi looking at a specific date and time.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The markets diverge significantly in their resolution timing and data sources, creating a potential disconnect between outcomes.Hero tip: Consider the differing timeframes when trading these markets. Polymarket allows for price movement throughout the year, while Kalshi is a single-point-in-time assessment.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves 'Yes' if the Ornn H200 Index reaches or exceeds the target price any time before or on December 31, 2026, using data from ornnai.com.
  • Kalshi: Resolves 'Yes' if the NVIDIA H200 compute price is above the target price at 4 PM ET on September 18, 2026.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Ornn H200 Index displays a finalized price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price for any day between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Ornnai.com (ornnai.com), specifically, the H200 Index chart data available at https://dashboard.ornnai.com. The daily values shown on the chart will be used for resolution. Daily data will be considered finalized once the following day’s data point is published. This market will resolve as soon as the listed price is hit, or once the value for the specified end date is finalized. If not all relevant data has been finalized by the end of the 14th calendar date afterward (ET), this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. Revisions made to previously published data points, before all relevant data points have been finalized, will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from resolving this market. Revisions made after all relevant data points have been finalized will not be considered.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the NVIDIA H200 compute price per hour at 4 PM ET on September 18, 2026, as reported by Ornn. If Ornn does not publish data for that exact time, the most recent available price before the expiration will be used. Post-expiration revisions to the data will not affect the outcome. All prices are evaluated in USD and rounded to two decimal places. Each market has a specific threshold, and resolves to 'Yes' only if the reported price exceeds that threshold; otherwise, it resolves to 'No'.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds often provide a unique perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts, acting as a 'wisdom of the crowd' indicator for the H200 GPU rental market. While analyst reports rely on modeling and expert opinion, this market reflects real-money bets, incentivizing participants to incorporate all available information – including supply chain dynamics, demand from AI developers, and geopolitical factors – into their predictions. Discrepancies can highlight areas where the market anticipates different outcomes than conventional wisdom suggests, offering valuable insights for those following this rapidly evolving technology sector.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on publicly available data regarding average H200 GPU rental prices during 2026. The specific price point that determines the outcome will be determined by the market’s conditions at the time of resolution. Traders should monitor relevant industry reports and pricing indices as the resolution date approaches to assess the likelihood of different outcomes.

Several signals and events could significantly impact this market. Major announcements from NVIDIA regarding H200 production capacity, pricing strategies, or technological advancements would be key catalysts. Changes in demand from major cloud providers or AI research institutions could also drive price fluctuations. Broader economic conditions, such as shifts in interest rates or inflation, could indirectly affect demand for GPU rentals. Geopolitical events impacting supply chains or technology access could also play a role. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for traders in this market.