TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$130,522,377

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,438,389,636

404,028

Markets across

30,214

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,681

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in July 2026?
kalshi
polymarket

What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in July 2026?

Volume:
$1,433,118

above $3997

 - Kalshi

above $3997 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 31, 2026

Closed: Jul 13, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

above $3997

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$41,298
N/A
N/A
$19,913
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $3987

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$27,445
N/A
N/A
$19,336
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $3967

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$19,280
N/A
N/A
$11,691
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↑ $4,200

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$17,600
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $3977

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$12,201
N/A
N/A
$8,281
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $3957

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$7,870
N/A
N/A
$5,589
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $3947

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,595
N/A
N/A
$2,519
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $3927

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,407
N/A
N/A
$4,307
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $3907

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,579
N/A
N/A
$2,262
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $3937

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,458
N/A
N/A
$964
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $3917

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,369
N/A
N/A
$1,203
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $3897

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,107
N/A
N/A
$1,052
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↑ $4,100

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,087
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↑ $4,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
19¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↑ $4,300

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$189,398
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

↓ $3,800

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$179,892
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

↓ $3,900

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$153,112
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

↑ $4,400

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$134,842
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

↓ $3,500

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$95,621
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

↑ $4,500

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$91,366
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

↓ $3,700

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$84,292
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

↑ $4,600

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$69,900
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

↓ $3,600

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$60,887
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

above $4007

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$44,707
N/A
N/A
$18,530
Settled
No
kalshi

above $4017

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$37,595
N/A
N/A
$19,843
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 54

Intro

This market tracks whether Gold (XAUUSD) will reach specific low price thresholds at any point during July 2026, with the current aggregated consensus showing a 10.0% probability for hitting $3,900 and a 10.0% probability for hitting $3,600, drawn from Kalshi and Polymarket and resolved via Pyth data. Watch for price movements around the end of the betting period on August 1, 2026.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi measure fundamentally different events: Polymarket tracks whether any 1-minute candle HIGH or LOW is reached during the entire July 2026 trading month; Kalshi tracks only the close price of a single 1-minute candle on July 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT. The scope, timing, and price components (extremes vs. close) are incompatible.Hero tip: Treat Polymarket and Kalshi as separate, non-hedging markets. Polymarket is a month-long range bet; Kalshi is a point-in-time bet on a specific day and hour. Gold could close at $3,950 on July 13 at 5:00 PM EDT (resolving YES on Kalshi's $3,897–$3,947 contracts) but never touch $4,100 during the entire month (resolving NO on Polymarket's $4,100 HIGH contract). Position sizing and correlation assumptions must account for this structural independence.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves YES if any 1-minute candle during any July 2026 trading session reaches the specified HIGH (for upside contracts) or LOW (for downside contracts) price. Uses Pyth 1-minute candle High/Low data; fallback to CME COMEX GC daily high/low if Pyth fails. Covers entire month; multiple resolution opportunities; extremes-based logic.
  • Kalshi: Resolves YES if the close price of the 1-minute candlestick at exactly 5:00 PM EDT on July 13, 2026 is above the specified threshold. Single fixed moment; close price only; no intra-day extremes; no fallback source specified.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in July 2026?

Kalshi

Settlement is determined by comparing the 1-minute candlestick close price for gold on July 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT against multiple price thresholds ranging from $3,897 to $4,287 USD per troy ounce, each in $10 increments. The close price represents the final price at the end of the immediately preceding one-minute interval (e.g., the 4:59 PM candlestick closes at 5:00:00 PM). All settlement values are rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places. If no data is published by the specified source agency for the exact time, the most recently available published data will be used for resolution.

Frequently asked questions

The gold price target market aggregates trader predictions on whether spot gold will reach specific price levels during July 2026. This market lets participants wager on gold's directional movement and volatility across a defined timeframe. Traders use real-time price feeds and macroeconomic signals to position themselves, creating a crowdsourced forecast that often reflects consensus expectations among sophisticated market participants. The dashboard displays current odds, historical price action, and cumulative volume to help new traders understand sentiment and liquidity at a glance.

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst price targets because they incorporate real-money incentives and live market feedback. While bank analysts publish quarterly forecasts based on fundamental models, traders here update odds continuously as new data emerges—geopolitical events, central bank policy shifts, or inflation surprises. Prediction markets tend to react faster to tail risks and black-swan scenarios that analysts may underweight. Comparing the two reveals whether the crowd is pricing in more upside, downside, or uncertainty than the consensus view.

Major catalysts include Federal Reserve interest-rate decisions, inflation data, and geopolitical tensions—all of which historically drive gold demand. A stronger US dollar typically pressures gold, while recession fears or safe-haven demand lift it. Central bank gold purchases or sales, currency crises, and real yields also influence trader positioning. Earnings seasons, energy shocks, and trade policy announcements can shift macro sentiment overnight, causing sharp repricing of odds as new information reaches the market.