TOTAL VOLUME:

$95.3b

24H VOL:

$146,309,622

24H TRANSACTIONS:

920,787,070

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,985,359,777

797,958

Markets across

13,478

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

772

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

45%

VS.

Kalshi:

55%

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kalshi
p

What will Silver (XAGUSD) hit in July 2026? Odds & Prediction Markets

Total volume:
$535,395
Volume 24h:
$34,271
5%
Liquidity:
$187,768
42%
Open interest:
$65,569
0%
PredictionHero
↓ $56 63%
polymarket
↓ $54 36%
polymarket
↑ $64 25%
polymarket
Jun 25Jun 26Jun 27Jun 28Jun 29Jun 30Jul 1Jul 1Jul 2Jul 3Jul 4Jul 4Jul 5Jul 6Jul 7Jul 7Jul 8Jul 9Jul 10Jul 10Jul 11Jul 12Jul 1320406080100

Time left: 19d:00h:02m

Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $56 in July?

63%chance
Amount

$

$20

$50

$100

$500

Trade on
p

Trade on Polymarket

At 66¢ buys you 152 shares | Odds: 63% Total Payout: $152 | Net Profit: $52 Multiplier: 1.52x | ROI: 52% APY not meaningful 19 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
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24h
7d
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Ends in
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Description

This event group contains two distinct market types tracking silver (XAGUSD) price movements in July 2026. Polymarket offers 16 binary questions about whether silver will hit specific HIGH or LOW price levels at any point during the month, while Kalshi offers 40 binary questions about whether silver will close above specific price thresholds on a single date (July 2, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT).

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi measure distinct events: Polymarket resolves on whether any 1-minute candle HIGH or LOW reaches a target price during July 2026; Kalshi resolves on whether the close price on July 2, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT exceeds a threshold. The timeframes, price mechanics (touch vs. close), and measurement windows are fundamentally incompatible.Hero tip: Treat these as two independent markets. Polymarket is a month-long price discovery bet; Kalshi is a single-moment close price bet. A YES on Kalshi (July 2 close above X) does not guarantee a YES on Polymarket (July month HIGH/LOW hits Y), and vice versa. Use Kalshi as a leading indicator for Polymarket, but do not assume correlation.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves YES if any 1-minute candle HIGH or LOW price equals or exceeds (for HIGH) or equals or falls below (for LOW) the target price at any point during July 2026 trading sessions (6:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00 PM ET Friday, with daily 5:00 PM-6:00 PM ET breaks). Uses Pyth 1-minute candle data as primary source; falls back to CME COMEX Silver Futures daily high/low if Pyth data is unavailable. Example: 'Will Silver hit HIGH $66 in July?' resolves YES if any 1-minute candle reaches $66 or above during the month.
  • Kalshi: Resolves YES if the close price of the 1-minute candlestick on July 2, 2026 at exactly 5:00 PM EDT is above the specified threshold. All 40 questions measure the same single close price on a single date, with thresholds ranging from $37.99 to $76.99. Example: 'If close price on July 2 at 5:00 PM EDT is above $45.99' resolves YES only if that exact close price exceeds $45.99; it does not measure whether the price was touched or reached at any other time.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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Polymarket

What will Silver (XAGUSD) hit in July 2026?

Kalshi

Settlement is determined by the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for silver on July 02, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT, where the candlestick timestamped at a given time reflects the price at the end of the immediately preceding one-minute interval. For example, the candlestick labeled 4:59 PM represents trading from 4:59:00 PM to 4:59:59 PM and closes at 5:00:00 PM. The settlement value is rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places. Each outcome resolves to Yes if the close price exceeds its specified threshold, ranging from $37.99 to $76.99 USD per troy ounce in $1.00 increments. If no data is published by the specified source agency for the specified time, the most recently available published data will be used to resolve the market.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets operate on real money and reputational incentives, which often surface price expectations faster than traditional analyst surveys. Unlike consensus forecasts that lag by weeks, this market updates continuously as new data emerges—geopolitical supply shocks, inflation reports, or industrial demand shifts. Traders who misread the July 2026 silver outlook face direct financial loss, creating pressure for accuracy. Analyst price targets tend to cluster around longer-term equilibrium; prediction markets instead price in near-term volatility and tail risks, making them complementary rather than redundant signals for commodity investors.

This market resolves around Aug 1, 2026, once July 2026 trading activity concludes and final spot prices are recorded. The outcome is confirmed against credible public reporting of silver futures or spot quotations from recognized financial data providers. Traders holding positions aligned with the verified price level at settlement receive their winnings; those on the wrong side forfeit their stake. No further adjustments occur after resolution; the market is final and binding on both platforms.

Central bank monetary policy shifts, particularly U.S. interest rate decisions, directly influence precious metal demand and this market's trajectory. Industrial production reports, especially from electronics and solar manufacturing, signal silver consumption trends. Geopolitical tensions affecting mining regions—Peru, Mexico, Russia—can constrain supply and spike prices. Inflation data and real yields reshape the inflation-hedge appeal of silver relative to equities. Currency movements, particularly dollar strength, compress or expand silver's purchasing power globally. Unexpected demand from green energy or defense sectors can also trigger rapid repricing before July 2026 settlement.

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PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.19.1PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.