TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$141,541,542

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,440,096,988

406,065

Markets across

30,522

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,692

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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What will Silver (XAGUSD) hit in July 2026?
kalshi
polymarket

What will Silver (XAGUSD) hit in July 2026?

Volume:
$1,074,770

↓ $56

 - Polymarket

↓ $56 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 31, 2026

Closed: Jul 16, 10:57 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

↓ $56

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$37,340
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $59.99

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$6,575
N/A
N/A
$3,553
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $58.99

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5,346
N/A
N/A
$2,652
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $57.99

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,762
N/A
N/A
$1,413
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↑ $62

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$3,500
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $48.99

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,463
N/A
N/A
$2,430
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $46.99

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,406
N/A
N/A
$2,325
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $56.99

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,140
N/A
N/A
$1,022
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $44.99

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,798
N/A
N/A
$1,402
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $47.99

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,454
N/A
N/A
$1,423
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $43.99

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,432
N/A
N/A
$1,156
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $45.99

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,219
N/A
N/A
$1,136
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $54.99

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,093
N/A
N/A
$1,037
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $55.99

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$913
N/A
N/A
$808
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $53.99

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$845
N/A
N/A
$820
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $50.99

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$628
N/A
N/A
$462
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $52.99

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$547
N/A
N/A
$523
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $49.99

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$462
N/A
N/A
$379
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $51.99

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$457
N/A
N/A
$357
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $42.99

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$354
N/A
N/A
$354
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↑ $58

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$325
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $37.99

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $38.99

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $39.99

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $40.99

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 54

Intro

This market tracks whether the price of silver (XAGUSD) will reach specific low levels during the month of July 2026. The current aggregated consensus probability for the leading outcome, will silver hit $48, is 10.0%, while the second outcome, will silver hit $50, also stands at 10.0%. Data is aggregated from Kalshi and Polymarket, with resolution sourced from pythdata.app. Watch for price movements and trading activity as the July 2026 event window approaches, with resolution expected by August 1, 2026.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi measure distinct events: Polymarket resolves on whether any 1-minute candle HIGH or LOW reaches a target price during July 2026; Kalshi resolves on whether the close price on July 2, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT exceeds a threshold. The timeframes, price mechanics (touch vs. close), and measurement windows are fundamentally incompatible.Hero tip: Treat these as two independent markets. Polymarket is a month-long price discovery bet; Kalshi is a single-moment close price bet. A YES on Kalshi (July 2 close above X) does not guarantee a YES on Polymarket (July month HIGH/LOW hits Y), and vice versa. Use Kalshi as a leading indicator for Polymarket, but do not assume correlation.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves YES if any 1-minute candle HIGH or LOW price equals or exceeds (for HIGH) or equals or falls below (for LOW) the target price at any point during July 2026 trading sessions (6:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00 PM ET Friday, with daily 5:00 PM-6:00 PM ET breaks). Uses Pyth 1-minute candle data as primary source; falls back to CME COMEX Silver Futures daily high/low if Pyth data is unavailable. Example: 'Will Silver hit HIGH $66 in July?' resolves YES if any 1-minute candle reaches $66 or above during the month.
  • Kalshi: Resolves YES if the close price of the 1-minute candlestick on July 2, 2026 at exactly 5:00 PM EDT is above the specified threshold. All 40 questions measure the same single close price on a single date, with thresholds ranging from $37.99 to $76.99. Example: 'If close price on July 2 at 5:00 PM EDT is above $45.99' resolves YES only if that exact close price exceeds $45.99; it does not measure whether the price was touched or reached at any other time.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

What will Silver (XAGUSD) hit in July 2026?

Kalshi

Settlement is determined by the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for silver on July 02, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT, where the candlestick timestamped at a given time reflects the price at the end of the immediately preceding one-minute interval. For example, the candlestick labeled 4:59 PM represents trading from 4:59:00 PM to 4:59:59 PM and closes at 5:00:00 PM. The settlement value is rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places. Each outcome resolves to Yes if the close price exceeds its specified threshold, ranging from $37.99 to $76.99 USD per troy ounce in $1.00 increments. If no data is published by the specified source agency for the specified time, the most recently available published data will be used to resolve the market.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets operate on real money and reputational incentives, which often surface price expectations faster than traditional analyst surveys. Unlike consensus forecasts that lag by weeks, this market updates continuously as new data emerges—geopolitical supply shocks, inflation reports, or industrial demand shifts. Traders who misread the July 2026 silver outlook face direct financial loss, creating pressure for accuracy. Analyst price targets tend to cluster around longer-term equilibrium; prediction markets instead price in near-term volatility and tail risks, making them complementary rather than redundant signals for commodity investors.

Central bank monetary policy shifts, particularly U.S. interest rate decisions, directly influence precious metal demand and this market's trajectory. Industrial production reports, especially from electronics and solar manufacturing, signal silver consumption trends. Geopolitical tensions affecting mining regions—Peru, Mexico, Russia—can constrain supply and spike prices. Inflation data and real yields reshape the inflation-hedge appeal of silver relative to equities. Currency movements, particularly dollar strength, compress or expand silver's purchasing power globally. Unexpected demand from green energy or defense sectors can also trigger rapid repricing before July 2026 settlement.