TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit Week of November 2 2026?
polymarket
limitless
kalshi

What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit Week of November 2 2026?

Total volume:
$202,798
Volume 24h:
$171,139
877%
Liquidity:
$31,023
38%
Open interest:
$84,910
116%

↑ $4,000

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Limitless

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 6, 2026

Time left: 03d:21h:49m

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,000 Week of November 2 2026?

66%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 70¢ buys you 143 shares | Odds: 66% Total Payout: $143 | Net Profit: $43 Multiplier: 1.43x | ROI: 43% APY not meaningful Low liquidity 3 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

↑ $4,000

Trade
66%
37%
Yes 70¢No 39¢
9¢
$781
$258
0%
N/A
N/A
3d 21h 49m
Active
limitless

↑ $4,000

Trade
N/A
N/A
90.7¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 21h 49m
Active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
65.5%
Yes 70¢No 39¢
Avg: 49.9¢Max: 90.7¢
polymarket

↓ $3,850

Trade
40%
Yes 43¢No 63¢
6¢
$838
$685
0%
N/A
N/A
3d 21h 49m
Active
limitless

↓ $3,850

Trade
N/A
N/A
11.5¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 21h 49m
Active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
40%
Yes 43¢No 63¢
Avg: 8.8¢Max: 11.5¢
polymarket

↑ $4,050

Trade
40%
18%
Yes 43¢No 64¢
7¢
$570
$162
0%
N/A
N/A
3d 21h 49m
Active
limitless

↑ $4,050

Trade
N/A
N/A
78.8¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 21h 49m
Active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
39.5%
Yes 43¢No 64¢
Avg: 42.9¢Max: 78.8¢
polymarket

↓ $3,800

Trade
24%
26%
Yes 27¢No 79¢
6¢
$821
$665
13,206%
N/A
N/A
3d 21h 49m
Active
limitless

↓ $3,800

Trade
N/A
N/A
87.7¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 21h 49m
Active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
24%
Yes 27¢No 79¢
Avg: 46.9¢Max: 87.7¢
polymarket

↑ $4,100

Trade
20%
8%
Yes 23¢No 83¢
6¢
$686
$918
0%
N/A
N/A
3d 21h 49m
Active
limitless

↑ $4,100

Trade
N/A
N/A
76.6¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 21h 49m
Active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
20%
Yes 23¢No 83¢
Avg: 41.3¢Max: 76.6¢
polymarket

↓ $3,750

Trade
11%
13%
Yes 13¢No 92¢
5¢
$798
$212
606%
N/A
N/A
3d 21h 49m
Active
limitless

↓ $3,750

Trade
N/A
N/A
99.6¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 21h 49m
Active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
10.5%
Yes 13¢No 92¢
Avg: 52.3¢Max: 99.6¢
polymarket

↑ $4,150

Trade
10%
22%
Yes 11¢No 92¢
3¢
$666
$164
0%
N/A
N/A
3d 21h 49m
Active
limitless

↑ $4,150

Trade
N/A
N/A
99.7¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 21h 49m
Active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
9.5%
Yes 11¢No 92¢
Avg: 51.4¢Max: 99.7¢
polymarket

↓ $3,700

Trade
6%
6%
Yes 9¢No 97¢
6¢
$1,330
$5
0%
N/A
N/A
3d 21h 49m
Active
limitless

↓ $3,700

Trade
N/A
N/A
90.4¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 21h 49m
Active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
6%
Yes 9¢No 97¢
Avg: 48.2¢Max: 90.4¢
polymarket

↑ $4,200

Trade
5%
44%
Yes 7.8¢No 97.9¢
5.7¢
$506
$51
0%
N/A
N/A
3d 21h 49m
Active
limitless

↑ $4,200

Trade
N/A
N/A
97.3¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 21h 49m
Active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
5%
Yes 7.8¢No 97.9¢
Avg: 51.5¢Max: 97.3¢
polymarket

↓ $3,650

Trade
3%
6%
Yes 6.2¢No 99.8¢
6¢
$1,529
$5
0%
N/A
N/A
3d 21h 49m
Active
limitless

↓ $3,650

Trade
N/A
N/A
99.7¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 21h 49m
Active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
3.2%
Yes 6.2¢No 99.8¢
Avg: 52.9¢Max: 99.7¢
polymarket

↓ $3,600

Trade
2%
6%
Yes 4.7¢No 99.9¢
4.6¢
$1,160
$7
0%
N/A
N/A
3d 21h 49m
Active
limitless

↓ $3,600

Trade
N/A
N/A
99.7¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 21h 49m
Active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
2.4%
Yes 4.7¢No 99.9¢
Avg: 52.2¢Max: 99.7¢
polymarket

↓ $3,550

Trade
2%
1%
Yes 4¢No 99.9¢
3.9¢
$421
$20
0%
N/A
N/A
3d 21h 49m
Active
limitless

↓ $3,550

Trade
N/A
N/A
4.9¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 21h 49m
Active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
2.1%
Yes 4¢No 99.9¢
Avg: 4.4¢Max: 4.9¢
polymarket

↓ $3,900

Trade
60%
Yes 75¢No 55¢
30¢
$93
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 21h 49m
Active
Total markets: 25 of 71

Description

This group of markets asks forecasters to predict whether the price of Gold (XAUUSD) will reach specific levels during the week of November 2, 2026. Markets exist for both 'High' and 'Low' price targets, ranging from $3,550 to $4,200.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The platforms differ in the timeframe considered for resolution (specific time vs. entire week) and the resolution source (Kalshi uses a fixed time, Polymarket/Limitless use any time during the week).Hero tip: Focus on the timing differences. Kalshi markets require a precise hit at 5:00 PM EST, making them less likely to resolve 'Yes' than the Polymarket/Limitless markets which consider the entire week.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Resolves 'Yes' if the 1-minute candlestick close price at 5:00 PM EST on November 2, 2026, is above the specified threshold. Each price point has its own market.
  • Polymarket: Resolves 'Yes' if any 1-minute candlestick during the week of November 2, 2026, has a High or Low price equal to or exceeding the listed price. Uses Pyth data.
  • Limitless: Resolves 'Yes' if any 1-minute candlestick during the week of November 2, 2026, has a High or Low price equal to or exceeding the listed price. Uses Pyth data.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit Week of November 2 2026?

Kalshi

The event resolves based on the closing price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on November 02, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST. If the price exceeds any of the specified thresholds—ranging from $3794 to $4184 USD per troy ounce—the corresponding market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. The settlement value is rounded to the nearest two decimal places, with the closing price defined as the price at the end of the immediately preceding one-minute interval (e.g., the 4:59 PM candlestick closes at 5:00 PM). If no data is published for the specified time, the most recently available published data is used to determine the outcome.

Limitless

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during a trading session of the week of November 2 2026, any 1-minute candle for Gold (XAUUSD) has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during an applicable trading session of the specified timeframe's business days will be considered. The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Gold (XAUUSD) does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Gold (XAUUSD) "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAU%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published for the relevant CME COMEX futures contract for the underlying metal—COMEX Gold Futures (GC)—may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often reflect a ‘wisdom of the crowd’ effect, aggregating diverse perspectives and information. This can lead to forecasts that are more accurate than those of individual analysts, particularly when dealing with complex events like commodity price movements. While traditional analyst forecasts rely on models and assumptions, this market incorporates real-money bets, incentivizing participants to provide informed predictions. However, it’s important to note that both approaches have limitations and can be influenced by biases or unforeseen circumstances.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has its own user base, trading dynamics, and liquidity, which can influence price discovery. Differences in trading fees, market maker activity, and the types of participants (e.g., professional traders vs. casual bettors) can also contribute to price discrepancies. Furthermore, the specific contracts offered on each platform—the precise outcomes being bet on—may not be perfectly aligned, leading to variations in perceived value. The 24-hour volume is currently $169,534.

This market resolves around Nov 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the closing price of Gold (XAUUSD) during the specified week, as reported by a widely recognized financial data source. Traders will be able to view the final outcome and settlement details on both Polymarket and Kalshi following verification. This ensures a transparent and objective determination of the market’s result.

Numerous economic and geopolitical factors could significantly impact this market. Unexpected inflation data, changes in interest rates by major central banks, and shifts in global economic growth forecasts are all potential catalysts. Geopolitical events, such as escalating conflicts or trade disputes, can also drive fluctuations in gold prices, as investors often seek safe-haven assets during times of uncertainty. Major news regarding gold mining production, central bank gold reserves, and currency fluctuations will likely influence trading activity in this market.