TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$219,029,434

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,869,293,526

411,051

Markets across

40,408

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,377

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Precipitation in NYC in November?
polymarket
kalshi

Precipitation in NYC in November?

Total volume:
$769
Volume 24h:
$255
25%
Liquidity:
$1,049
57%
Open interest:
$74
58%

Above 3 inches

 - Kalshi

Above 3 inches - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Feb 7, 2027

Time left: 28d:18h:31m

Rain in NYC in Nov 2026?

73%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 71¢ buys you 141 shares | Odds: 73% Total Payout: $141 | Net Profit: $41 Multiplier: 1.41x | ROI: 41% High Projected APY: 7,346% 28 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 3 inches

Trade
73%
4%
Yes 71¢No 37¢
8¢
N/A
$29
2,338%
N/A
$28
4w 18h
Active
kalshi

Above 4 inches

Trade
53%
Yes 53¢No 61¢
14¢
N/A
$46
0%
N/A
$46
4w 18h
Active
polymarket

2-3"

Trade
42%
12%
Yes 68¢No 84¢
52¢
$108
$120
50%
N/A
N/A
3mo 1w
Active
polymarket

3.5-4.25"

Trade
40%
5%
Yes 66¢No 87¢
53¢
$105
$103
0%
N/A
N/A
3mo 1w
Active
polymarket

3-3.5"

Trade
34%
1%
Yes 58¢No 90¢
48¢
$98
$70
40%
N/A
N/A
3mo 1w
Active
polymarket

<2"

Trade
19%
3%
Yes 35¢No 97¢
32¢
$253
$103
64%
N/A
N/A
3mo 1w
Active
polymarket

4.25-5.75"

Trade
17%
7%
Yes 27¢No 93¢
20¢
$372
$200
115%
N/A
N/A
3mo 1w
Active
polymarket

>5.75"

Trade
14%
4%
Yes 26¢No 97¢
23¢
$112
$98
26%
N/A
N/A
3mo 1w
Active
kalshi

Above 1 inches

Trade
N/A
N/A
9¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4w 18h
Active
kalshi

Above 2 inches

Trade
N/A
N/A
14¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4w 18h
Active
kalshi

Above 7 inches

Trade
N/A
N/A
10¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4w 18h
Active
kalshi

Above 6 inches

Trade
N/A
N/A
17¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4w 18h
Active
kalshi

Above 5 inches

Trade
N/A
N/A
13¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4w 18h
Active
Total markets: 13

Description

This group forecasts the total precipitation in New York City (Central Park) during the month of November 2026. Markets are based on data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi markets are based on exceeding specific thresholds, while Polymarket markets are based on precipitation falling within defined ranges. This creates a structural divergence in how the event is assessed.Hero tip: Understand that a high probability on a Kalshi 'greater than X inches' market doesn't necessarily translate to a high probability on a Polymarket 'between X and Y inches' market. Consider the full distribution of possible precipitation outcomes.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Polymarket offers markets asking about specific precipitation ranges (e.g., less than 2 inches, between 2 and 3 inches). Resolution is based on NOAA data, with a precision of 2 decimal places. "Will NYC have less than 2 inches of precipitation in November?"
  • Kalshi: Kalshi offers markets that resolve 'Yes' if total precipitation exceeds a specific threshold (e.g., 1 inch, 2 inches). "If the total precipitation at Central Park, New York City in Nov 2026 is strictly greater than 1 inches, then the market resolves to Yes."
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Central Park, New York City between November 1 and November 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for November 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of November 2026. If the relevant data is not available by February 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market.

Kalshi

The event evaluates total precipitation at Central Park, New York City, throughout November 2026 against progressively higher thresholds. If the cumulative rainfall exceeds 1 inch, the market resolves positively for the first threshold; exceeding 2 inches triggers resolution for the second; surpassing 3 inches affects the third; and exceeding 4 inches determines the fourth. The resolution is strictly based on measured totals, with no ties or partial fulfillments—only whether each specific numerical threshold is strictly surpassed. All assessments use official meteorological data for the defined geographic point and calendar month.