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$154.8b

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$277,138,640

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2,984,640,614

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$1,905,404,943

412,077

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39,838

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4,526

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5

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Where will it rain this weekend (Oct 17 - Oct 18)?
kalshi

Where will it rain this weekend (Oct 17 - Oct 18)?

Volume:
$297,653

New York City

 - Kalshi

New York City - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 19, 2026

Closed: Oct 19, 1:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

New York City

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$29,725
N/A
N/A
$26,122
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Phoenix

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$24,426
N/A
N/A
$11,533
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Philadelphia

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$18,858
N/A
N/A
$15,888
Settled
Yes
kalshi

West Palm Beach

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$13,268
N/A
N/A
$9,705
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Washington DC

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$11,209
N/A
N/A
$9,232
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Miami

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$11,197
N/A
N/A
$9,205
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Trenton

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$10,821
N/A
N/A
$8,069
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Seattle

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$7,591
N/A
N/A
$5,501
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Atlanta

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$30,712
N/A
N/A
$25,539
Settled
No
kalshi

Las Vegas

View
0%
8%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$19,140
N/A
N/A
$8,418
Settled
No
kalshi

Boston

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$17,025
N/A
N/A
$7,984
Settled
No
kalshi

Newark

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14,533
N/A
N/A
$8,109
Settled
No
kalshi

Los Angeles

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,855
N/A
N/A
$8,971
Settled
No
kalshi

Chicago

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,378
N/A
N/A
$10,813
Settled
No
kalshi

San Antonio

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,204
N/A
N/A
$6,204
Settled
No
kalshi

Austin

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,140
N/A
N/A
$7,533
Settled
No
kalshi

San Francisco

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,970
N/A
N/A
$6,183
Settled
No
kalshi

Oklahoma City

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,812
N/A
N/A
$5,551
Settled
No
kalshi

Houston

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,656
N/A
N/A
$5,008
Settled
No
kalshi

Denver

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,189
N/A
N/A
$4,606
Settled
No
kalshi

Dallas

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,572
N/A
N/A
$5,301
Settled
No
kalshi

Minneapolis

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,086
N/A
N/A
$3,527
Settled
No
kalshi

New Orleans

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,288
N/A
N/A
$4,049
Settled
No
Total markets: 23

Description

This event assesses whether measurable rainfall will occur in various major U.S. cities over a specific weekend. Each location has its own criteria for determining a positive outcome based on precipitation data.

Kalshi

Each market evaluates whether any measurable precipitation occurs in a specified U.S. city during the weekend of October 17–18, 2026. For a market to resolve as 'Yes,' the total precipitation recorded at the official weather station for that city must exceed zero inches on at least one day within the period. 'Trace' amounts or missing data are counted as zero. The Weather Company provides the official data, and all markets share this consistent methodology, ensuring uniform application across locations. The resolution hinges solely on objective meteorological measurements rather than forecasts or estimates.

Frequently asked questions

Generally, prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts rely on models and expert opinions, this market reflects the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially when dealing with complex events like weather patterns. If traditional forecasts predict a 60% chance of rain, this market might show a different probability based on the information and insights held by its participants. This difference can be particularly noticeable when unexpected factors come into play, influencing traders’ assessments.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s current expectation of that outcome’s probability. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth shows how many contracts are available at different price points, indicating the level of demand and supply. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a real-time assessment of the likelihood of rain this weekend.

This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on whether measurable precipitation is recorded in the designated locations during the specified timeframe. The determination will rely on official weather data and reports from recognized meteorological sources. The outcome of this market will reflect whether it rained in the locations specified during the weekend of October 17th and 18th, 2026.

Several signals could significantly impact this market. Changes in long-range weather forecasts, particularly those from the National Weather Service, will be closely watched. Unexpected shifts in jet stream patterns or the development of a coastal storm system could dramatically alter the probability of rain. Additionally, any announcements regarding potential weather-related disruptions, like hurricane warnings or severe weather advisories, could influence trading activity. Even local news reports highlighting changing conditions could move the market as traders react to the latest information.